Just looked Dexter poor show and again RUBBISH racing on such a big day BOOOOOOOOO. It really wouldn't surprise me come "Champions Day" at Ascot we get 4 horse fields all the way through the card - getting worse every week
Morning gents, hope we are al fit and well for today... Nowt much on other than whats on at Doncaster, so... 1.25 - Responsive 4/1, Amis Reunis 8/1 1.55 - Alanza, 3/1 2.25 - Bogart 11/4, Mehdi 10/1, Top Gun 14/1 3.00 - Meeznah 10/3 3.35 - Imperial Order 6/1, Bridgehampton 18/1, Vengazzu 25/1 4.10 - Marine Commando 10/1, Damika 12/1, Five Star Junior 25/1 4.40 - Club Oceanic 4/1, Jutland 8/1 Just my picks really, wont be betting on many of them as its a bit dart board time for some of the races...!!! But agree with the lads on Alanza and his chances in the 1.55... I also like the look of Sunshine Always at Epsom in the 4.30... Took the 3/1 on offer for him... Good luck to all today...
Good morning all... just been over to 606 refugees, Daily racing Proboards and no one was there! Seems this is the place to be right? anyways, hope you're all OK, its been a while! these are my 4 for today; 1.25 – Amis Reunis – Hannon back in winners yesterday with Eureka, and I think with a better ride from Hughes Magic City would have been closer too... they are in form and I fancy this one. 1.55 – Rimth – I have always liked this horse and 7 furlongs is the best trip for her... managed a close 4th with Peslier on her so must do better with Dettori today huh?? 2.25 – Moon Pearl – This horse is better than its last run and i was quite taken by its debut win... 3.00 – Meeznah.
Afternoon all Still sick from yesterday with a third and three seconds from my four selections. Hopefully a bit more luck today. 1.25 Doncaster BESITO 4-1 (BOG) A tight market for this filly’s nursery to start the card at Doncaster but the top weight and current favourite BESITO stands out as the filly that appears to have much more to offer. Trained by William Jarvis she started her racing career in what has turned out to be a well above average maiden at Leicester. The winner of that race Russelliana went on to finish runner up in the Group 2 Cherry Hinton stakes at Newmarket, whilst the third home that day Pearl Diva has since shed the maiden tag and ran second in a listed heat. Besito was very unfortunate to bump in to a well above average filly named Hello Glory on her second start at Ascot. Both travelled well throughout the race but it was Hello Glory that picked up best of the pair to record a comfortable 3 ¼ length victory over Besito who may well have been a bit closer if not for hanging badly right for pressure. The form of this race has worked out very well with Hello Glory subsequently finishing 3rd in a good renewal of the Lowther stakes. The unbeaten Best Terms took that race from Fire Filly, Fire Lilly has since went on to run 2nd behind the current 1000 Guineas favourite maybe in the Moyglare at the Curragh with the 114 rated La Collina back in third, that filly had previously ended the unbeaten run of the Coventry winner Power. All these form lines work back to Hello Glory’s victory over Besito and whilst she may have improved since Besito is still open to improvement as well and if she can run to a similar level of form I am confident she will be right there come the finish of this race. The selection made no mistake when getting off the mark at the third time of asking when running away unchallenged at Newmarket last time out. Whilst that form is nothing special at all there was plenty to like about the performance and hopefully there is plenty more to come. 1.55 Doncaster – DEVER DREAM 7-1 (BOG) I am impressed by the turn out for this Group 3 race and I can certainly see why people are going with the John Oxx trained Alanza, she is a progressive 3yo and has been well looked after by Johnny Murtagh a few times this season before winning her two most recent starts (both listed). However the bare form is simply not good enough to win though in my opinion, her victories over Wild Wind and Anam Allta are solid enough but I certainly wouldn’t fancy either of them in a race like this and whilst it is obvious there is more to come from Alanza she is not a bet for me at the odds. I will be having a punt on DEVER DREAM. At 7-1 I feel she is the value in the race and whilst everything has to go right for her I will take that chance. I have backed her several times this season and have felt very unlucky not to collect; she is a strong travelling filly but often finds no gaps at all. I have criticised Eddie Ahern a couple of times this season for his rides on her but hopefully he can get it right today. She was a very progressive type in 2010 starting in handicaps off a mark of just 70 and ending the season with a mark of 105. She bumped in to a few of today’s rivals during that campaign and went down to Seta by 2 lengths at Warwick before going on to beat Flambeau at Newmarket. She may well have progressed past Seta now in my opinion but Flambeau is also improving and is an obvious danger. On her most recent outing Dever Dream was beaten 2 ¾ lengths by today’s current second favourite Chachamaidee, however the selection got no run at all for a long while and by the time she got out Chachamaidee was already away. They are both smart hold up performers with a nice turn of foot and for me this race could be between them again. Dever Dream is 3lbs better off for that 2 ¾ length defeat at Goodwood and this along with a bit more luck could help swing the result in to her favour. 2.25 Doncaster – REPLY E.W 11/1 (BOG) & WHIMSICAL E.W 33/1 (BOG) As expected a really competitive field line up for this Weatherbys Insurance 300,000 2-y-o Stakes. Picking the winner will be no easy task therefore it may be wise to go against the favourite Bogart who is by no means a sure fire thing in such a big field and at 5-2 he offers little value even though Wootton Bassett won it last year at 2-1. I have decided to back two horses E.W at double figure odds. REPLY is a horse I have been following closely without ever having a punt on him, he is still a lightly raced sort having only had 4 starts and considering one of them was at the highest level and another at Group 2 level it is possible we still haven’t seen the best of him. He shed his maiden tag impressively at the second time of asking when running right away from a fair field at the Curragh. This was a big improvement on his debut effort in which he showed obvious signs of inexperience when finishing third of four runners. He has been far from disgraced in Group company since, running 5th of 9 behind La Collina in the Phoenix Stakes with the 112 rated Lilbourne Lad only 1 ¾ lengths in front in 4th. He was 6th of 9 in the Gimcrack at York last time out and a potential excuse may well have been the ground, hopefully the rain will stay away today as his impressive maiden win came on Good ground. He has to carry a top weight today but I suspect he has a lot more class than most of these rivals and hopefully he can at least run a place. WHIMSICAL is worth a small E.W bet at a massive price. The 33-1 about her seems a massive price considering she only carries 8-1; she improved a bundle on her debut effort when giving the highly regarded Firdraws a bit of a scare at Salisbury on her second and most recent racecourse appearance. It is hard to see exactly how good that form is but judging by how big the winners reputation is from that race it may well be that Whimsical has run up to a very decent level of form. It is interesting that Richard Hughes preferred this filly to Dreamwriter from the same stable on debut. Dreamwriter won that race in which Whimsical was back in 6th. Although Dreamwriter was disappointing on her latest start she was sent off favourite for it (listed heat). This obviously demands more from the selection but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if she was to run a big race this afternoon
Just looking at the Rugby World cup betting and its a bit of an eye opener in the first match... New Zealand win - 1/900 Draw - 90/1 Tonga win - 66/1 So its going to ba a close match then...!!!
3.00 Doncaster Sense of Purpose 3/1 Have some time now so thought I would elaborate on this a bit more. Strongly fancy this Dermot Weld 4 year old who has some very strong form in the bag and coupled with her journey across the Irish Sea I know her very shrewd trainer means business. An extremely game front running filly, she has really come into her own as a 4 YO with 3 wins and a 2nd this year from her 4 runs, the defeat at the hands of subsequent Group 2 winner and unlucky loser of the Irish Oaks Banimpire. She's definitely improved since then, disposing of the very consistent and high class Bob Le Beau twice and subsequent Fame and Glory conqueror Fictional Account, who I rate very highly. Her latest victory came in a Group 3 and Pat Smullen isn't going over for one ride for the laugh and I'll be very surprised if she doesn't go very close.
Afternoon folks, This forum seems to have taken off superbly. Oddy i think Paddy Power do place only betting, don't think anyone else does. Really fancy Rimth today-she's got a nice trun of foot. Must say Donny seems to be the fairest track i've seen this year, didn't back a winner yesterday but no complaints on the draw. Also don't think set to music will place so have layed that. For any Rugby World Cup bettors I read the RP guide yesterday, and there aren't many angles as you'd expect, but one I like a lot is that BetFred (and the Tota obviously) are going 50-1 on France to be eliminated at the Group Stage. Admittedly it's an unlikely scenario but not that unlikely. They meet last so it'll be a clear, and for the French, potentially nerve-jangling game, they should both have lost to NZ and comfortably beaten Japan and Canada by then. Tonga play NZ first so should have got over that and have had two morale boosting victories, while France will have played NZ the week before so any injuries, physical or mental, in that game will still be lingering. Also France have a seven day gap since the New Zealand game while Tonga will have had 10 days since playing Japan so again more recovery time from a far easier game. Finally, if any team, apart from my own (Wales) is likely to throw in a poor performance then it is surely the French. All-in-all a far from 50-1 scenario which is far shorter at other bookies, (11-1 at hills being the shortest.) Good luck all.
Rainbow - When you look at most of the match betting its just silly... If Man U got the 92nd ranked league team at home in the FA Cup you wouldnt be seeing 1/900 odds...!!! I thought bookies were trying to get us to part with our money... Not put us off... Then again it will prob make you go to other markets like chesney has stated...
Another tricky card at Donny, 2 have caught the eye and the nice bookies have accepted my wagers: 225: Cockney Dancer won very well on debut and is up for any amount of improvement. 410: Waking Warrior has had his problems but connections believe with luck in running he can at least place, nice bet EW at 40s. Good Luck all
Apologies this is not “today” but may be of interest to some of you: Final declaration St Leger field 1 Brown Panther (T Dascombe, K Fallon) 2 Buthelezi (J Gosden, R Havlin) 3 Census (R Hannon, R Hughes) 4 Genius Beast (M Al Zarooni, S De Sousa) 5 Masked Marvel (J Gosden, W Buick) 6 Sea Moon (Sir M Stoute, O Peslier) 7 Seville (A O’Brien, J O’Brien) 8 Blue Bunting (M Al Zarooni, L Dettori) 9 Rumh (S bin Suroor, R Hills)
Some right rough looking birds have turned up for ladies day at Donny...orange and nearly naked over sized specimens......some right rough looking blokes as well,if you're into that sort of thing!!
Have sided with the two DUTCH ART fillies in the 1st @ Doncaster - RESPONSIVE and TOFFEE TART. The sire can do no wrong at the moment!
Amis Renuis for me, Dex couple of laddettes from the office are at Doncaster today hope your description isn't of them yikes!
On the RWC betting, team to be the surprise package is Samoa. Can get 4-1 on Wales not to get out of the group, thats a good bet. Ive actually sold wales with a spready.
4.10 Doncaster We Have a Dream 33/1 Now the price has drifted to much bigger I feel WHAD is now worth a selection along with Five Star Junior. Ran a very decent 2nd LTO at Windsor to Joe Packet, who has since run a very credible 2nd off a 5lb higher mark. The 6th Secret Witness has come out and won again since off the same mark so the form looks good. George Baker, whose record is 1-2-2 (defeats by a nose and a head) on WHAD gets on very well with him and comes to Doncaster for 1 ride before going to Wolverhampton later on. WHAD only up 1lb for his latest effort and find below my last write up for him 6.40 Windsor We Have a Dream 33/1 Quite like the look of William Muir’s 6 year old and at the price I think he is a fantastic bet. This gelding, for the most part, has been in very good form this year notching 2 wins from 8 starts. After a 4 month lay off and after 3 comeback runs We Have a Dream notched his first victory of the year over C+D under todays jockey Martin Dwyer when scoring off a mark 81 when beating Victorian Bounty and Apache Ridge by a head with a very well timed challenge on 13 June. This was this gelding’s first win since October 2009 and showed that he still retained the ability of his younger days. The form of this race has worked out quite nicely as well. Victorian Bounty has come out since and won off a 1lb higher mark and perhaps most interestingly of all is Ginger Ted who finished 0.88L behind back in 4th. Ginger Ted has subsequently come out and won off the same mark and LTO he finished an excellent 1.50L behind Hoof It who has subsequently gone on to win the Stewards Cup in excellent fashion and who looks a group horse in the making. On this form alone We Have a Dream has an excellent chance off his mark today of 87. On this form alone We Have a Dream has an excellent chance off his mark today of 87. We Have a Dream subsequently came out and won on his next start at Folkestone by 1.25L off a mark of effectively 79 when beating Ray of Joy into second place. This was a rather comfortable victory with George Baker easing his mount down before the line seeming as if he had a lot left in hand. The horses behind haven’t had too many races subsequently so the form of this race is hard to analyse but the 4th Deerslayer, who finished 4.5L behind, won the other day off a 2lb lower mark. We Have a Dream has had 3 starts since this latest victory and for two of these he has run credibly, but not fantastically. 3 starts ago he finished 3.25L behind Mac Gillie Eoin, who reopposes again today, at Epsom at the end of June. We Have a Dream employed his normal front running tactics but with about 4 other horses in the race who took the same approach they went too fast out in front and it played into the hands of the horses who came from off the pace including the winner and the 2nd Another Try. That said, it was still a credible effort. His next and 2nd last start came in the Scottish Stewards Cup in Hamilton. Off a mark of 88 (minus James Rogers’ 5lb claim), We Have a Dream again put in another credible showing for the 5f before running out of steam entering the final furlong. It was a tough race, however, and finishing 3.12L back in 6th is no disgrace. LTO, We Have a Dream put in a pretty poor performance at Goodwood in the Stewards Sprint Handicap. He adopted his traditional front running tactics but seemed under pressure a long way out. He was bumped when well beaten and was eased right down subsequently but he had absolutely no chance of figuring in what is a hot race. I can’t say he didn’t act on the track as he finished 3rd there last year. It was a hot race, a massive field and perhaps once he got passed he just chucked the towel in. However, I don’ t think there is any excuses but I am definitely willing to forgive a horse a poor run as they often happen. That said, his last 2 races were very competitive with large prize money at stake so perhaps connections were trying to attain things out of his capabilities. Today, We Have a Dream returns to Windsor where he was successful earlier in the year under the tutelage of Martin Dwyer, who gets the ride again today. This gelding represents William Muir’s only runner at this track tonight with his other horse declared a non-runner. Although overall Muir’s record at Windsor is quite poor, this year it reads excellently with 1 win (We Have a Dream) from 2 runners. This demonstrates that he doesn’t send too many horses to Windsor and I think its significant that he is sending his horse back here tonight. Although he has never won off a mark this high before, he has placed off marks between 85 and 88 6 times in the last year and half so if he is fully wound up and in top form I definitely feel he can win off this mark. He has an ideal draw in stall 2 for his front running tactics, with his win coming from stall 1 over C+D. Although he is friendless in the market, he was for his victory in June so that wouldn’t be a concern. All in all I think We Have a Dream is vastly overpriced. He has proven he can perform off a mark similar to this and fingers crossed Dwyer can get this home in front at massive odds.
