If you take out the Oaks, of which she had no chance of winning, this is an unbeaten filly as a 3 yo. She is by far the form horse in the race. It looks as if an extra two furlongs will suit her grand, as best work comes late and she continues to gallop and gallop. Of course Sea Moon still has the potential to continue improving and may end up winning the Leger all to easy. The classy style of the voltigeur victory supports that thinking, but you have to ask what did Sea Moon beat? A Roger Charlton improving handicapper and Seville, who may turn out to be just another average O'Brien overachiever. Yes, it was a smart win but perhaps the distance was a little flattering. The 4/1 available about Blue Bunting appears tremendous value. It is essentially saying that a multiple group one winning horse has a 1 in 5 chance of taking this race. In my eyes it is more probable than that, nearer to 2 in 5.* It may be a losing bet. In fact I would love to see Sea Moon coast it, proving to be another superstar for us all to watch. But anyone looking for value in the market must back Blue Bunting. It is the clear form horse and significantly over priced. 4/1 may look rather delicious in the last furlong!
Good morning, Azamour! Well reasoned Post! The trouble is I believe Sea Moon is a "late developing special" and will gallop away from them but, as you say, 4/1 is a good price. Best of luck.
Completely agree that a dual Classic winner, and three time Gp1 winner probably has every right to be a lot shorter than 4/1. In fact she's still 9/2 with Blue Square, and I can't see her getting any bigger on the day. One thing to bare in mind perhaps, is the woeful record of fillies in the Leger, though that said, I'm not sure how many have contested the race in recent years. As for the favourite, he must be underpriced on one piece of form, and that sets the race up as a betting medium for those wishing to oppose him. Of course Sea Moon looked very good in the Voltiguer, but Blue Bunting seems to keep on finding, and so far has got better the further she's gone. I think it's an open race and she has a great chance, but I also haven't ruled out Census or Brown Panther.
Expect the going to possibly be on the soft side on Saturday, which may not be great news for those with unproven stamina. The going at Doncaster was reported as Good on Saturday but I expect that they had the substantial rain overnight Monday/Tuesday that I got forty miles away and they may be getting wet on Friday and Saturday looking at the five-day forecast. Blue Bunting had no chance of winning The Oaks for the same reason that the rest of the field had no chance: they allowed the leader a soft lead and she never came back. The last filly to win the St Leger was User Friendly in 1992, but not many top fillies tend to line up. The Great Voltigeur form does look suspicious on paper (as do quite a few of the York races) but Sea Moon does look like a horse that will stay the extra two furlongs on Town Moor and he is related to 2003 winner Brian Boru. The obvious negative is his trainer’s abysmal record in the race – Conduit in 2008 was his first winner after twenty five attempts including some famous beaten favourites.
Yes it's very likely Sea Moon is another Stoute late developer. Similar to Conduit...Maybe because he enters so sparingly! And the pedigree suggests you should have no worries about the extra 2f. I feel with Sea Moon either going to get a champions performance, or no show. It's right that he's favourite, I but I question the difference between first and second in the betting. Blue Bunting is a fighter and this is a competitive line up. Even Hughes seems to be confident on Census, and he of course knows the difference, which again points to Sea Moon being far too short.
I think we may witness a shock come saturday! Like alot of people I would too like to see Sea Moon runaway with it- he looked a very class horse with a long stride and once he gets going will be very hard to peg back. But as you said azamour Hughes is very confided on Census even choosing ahead of Sea Moon. So he may not expect sea moon to stay- we will soon find out . Blue bunting is again a very good a never giving up filly and with frankie on board plus a weight allowance I think will give sea moom an extremley good run for his money. I cant wait!!!
I'm pretty sure he was always going to ride Census for Hannon, he just picked up the ride on Sea Moon? My guess is he is announcing his confidence because he thinks there isn't an awful lot between them, both improving. Yes the weight allowance is quite tasty... And it would be nice to see a guineas/leger double!
Richard Hughes got the ride on Sea Moon at York because Ryan Moore is sidelined. They’ve booked some foreigner for the job on Saturday. Hughes was always going to ride for his father-in-law, so I guess you would expect him to talk up the horse’s chances. It will be interesting to see what he writes in his Racing Post column at the weekend. He as good as told everyone that King Torus would win last week. If Blue Bunting wins the St Leger, I do not expect the fillies’ allowance to be the decisive factor.
Read the first few pages of ‘The Weekender’ over lunch and dear old Sir Michael receives terrible flak in it in for opting for Peslier rather than some ‘home grown jock’. Stats quoted are that Peslier hasn’t ridden a winner in Britain this term from 20+ mounts, hasn’t ridden a winner at Doncaster in the past 5 seasons and in the same period has only ridden one winner in this Isle for Sir Michael (although that was, of course, a very, very big one). Personally though, I think that Sea Moon should be odds-on and regard any quote this side of ‘levels’ as more than decent.
Sea Moon was most emphatic in the Great Voltigeur. Clearly the bookies think so as well. The win of Census in the Freer while a great run, does not look as strong a win as that of Sea Moon. But these races can throw up a real surprise, so I don't think I'd be trying to take mine for theirs. Census is great each way value, and I wouldn't he at all surprised to see Brown Panther put in a big run for Mr K. Fallon. As for Blue Bunting, I've stuck with her all the way down the line in the fillies races, but it takes a special girl to beat the boys in these grinding races. So for the first time, I'm going to turn my back on the lovely lady.
...must of been those Eastren Europeans at Luton airport in 2007 QM.. To be honest,I think the favourite could be under priced.I'm not mad about Blue Bunting who never does anything easily and her 115 rating is about right and about how good she is. One could argue she is still improving,given he extended superiority over her Irish Oaks rivals at York. Difficult to say...I just get the impression one of the colts could step up.I wouldn't even rule out Seville who was beaten some 8l in the GV. Last year Midas Touch,crushed at York,reversed running in the GV with Rewilding to the tune of 9l. It's always a fascinating,if moderate,race these days and no one knows who will have the requisite stamina,especially with possible ease in the ground. I admit to being thoroughly undecided at this stage!
I would be inclined to say that along with others BB has not finished improving either. Shes a half sister to a 2m + winner and everything I have seen suggests further the better. Stoute says this is one of the most competitive renewals for years and I think its not a race for big stakes. But BB is tough and you will definitely get a run for your buck.
Census is a rapidly improving 3yo who might just be up to this. My only slight niggle is his pedigree. I don’t know anything about his sire but from what I can see he does not have a particularly glowing CV. It would be nice to see a filly win again. I recall some nice fillies winning the race: Meld Dunfermline Sun Princess Oh So Sharp User Friendly Interestingly all of those won the Oaks. I particularly remember Dunfermline as I was listening to the race in my car with my 2nd wife to be up at Devils’ Dyke (near Hove). Dunfermline was owned by the Queen and ridden by Willie Carson and won a very exciting battle with the dual Arc winner and Great Voltigeur Stakes winner Alleged who was suffering the only defeat of his career.
Apologies, Dexter, I should have said “some foreigner who does not live here”. They are shipping one in rather than stealing Fallon off the passed-it footballer. I would not back anything based on the York form, be that the Yorkshire Oaks or the Great Voltigeur. The dead ground was bad news for most of the runners and the bare results do not stack up. If Stoute is already talking about it being competitive then the favourite’s eight length victory on the Knavesmire could be quite hollow. Ron, if you are a MUPPET, it cannot be Statler or Waldorf nor can it be the Swedish Chef or Sam. I have narrowed it down to Fozzie, Gonzo or Beaker. Or do you play the drums (which forced you to move to rural France)? A quick bit of analysis of the sire of Census, Cacique. Perhaps the most important piece of information is that he is a full brother to Dansili. He is owned by Khalid Abdullah and originally raced in France, trained by Andre Fabre, where he won a Group 2 race and was placed in the Poulains (French Guineas) and the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He then moved to Bobby Frankel in the US and won the 2006 Man O’War Stakes. You can find his pedigree at Cacique.
QM. Will have look at Cacique pedigree.Census runs like a stayer but there have to be doubts over the Leger trip,as there are with most of the main contenders. I'm still undecided.
Interestingly Hughes appeared less confident about Census today when interviewed before the first. And when probed about Sea Moons chance he said 'He won it well (York), but you might just question the form of that race'. You can't question Blue Buntings form, the two should be joint favourites. Take the value and prepare for some flying dismounts tomorrow! What a great card tomorrow, excitement is building......any of the undecideds make their minds up??
