May's strategy is now clear for all to see. She hasn't deviated from it an inch but at the time it was roundly rejected, no one could be sure. * THE Deal was put to parliament in round one ---> Bad defeat. * Consultation with MPs which was not really a discussion but only an outlining of her plan and deal to MPs. No plan to remove her red lines. * Amendments in commons. All which has an impact on postponing Brexit or formally rejecting no deal defeated. So no deal still on the table. * MPs ask May for further negotiation on backstop. * EU solidly rejects even the start of any renegotiation of the backstop. So what does May do? She has no alternative than to present the whole deal to the commons unchanged and this time the MPs have a gun to their heads: Either this deal or NO deal. May has agreed with every one who said that no deal will be catastrophic for this country. She is hoping that the same labour MPs who voted against their whip in the amendments and some of the rebel Tories who would not stomach No deal will now pinch their noses and vote for her. It is now clear that the Brady amendment had no effect in terms of renegotiation but got the Tories to show unity. It is quite unrealistic to get a backstop (actually DEVISED by May herself) legally changed in a few days. What's in it for Eire when they have nothing to gain from any change to it?
you forgot deal was SUPPOSED to be put to parliament but she didn't timeline of her despicable shenanigans. a) 14th November: full withdrawal test published b) 25th November: EU sign off on deal at regular council session. c) 10th December. May defers withdrawal agreement vote after 4 days debate, citing it would be defeated and she would go to EU to get assurances d) 15th January. Government has no choice but to bring the vote and it is defeated soundly. 230 votes margin. e) 21st January, despite a 3 day thing she strings out further time and makes a nebulous motion which enables her to string things along f) 29th January, May puts a motion she knows is pointless to parliament that all tories and dup back, off she goes back to same EU she went back to after 10th December looking for same thing she was looking for then. SO.... she's been enabled to waste these days and shes managed to go from the date the EU published this deal (and knowing exactly the score) to a date a full 2months and more later having dragged out time and actively done nothing. Parliament has voted confidence in her, her party backed her over a change in leadership. She knows full well this is another action to delay right out to 14th Feb which is a full 3 months after deal was published and barely 6 weeks until we are out. Theres no magic bullet here.
If there's no deal you won't get a penny!' Brexit minister warns that UK will REFUSE to pay £39bn divorce bill unless the EU agrees to PM's new backstop plan as she prepares for Brussels showdown please log in to view this image
guess what.. play that game and we will pay it in tariffs 10 times over. in case people forget. the first 2 things agreed.. backstop and settlement payment
One thing that all these shenanigans and soap opera would have confirmed (even to the dimmest amongst us) is that politicians openly lie through their teeth. They publicly say exactly the opposite to what they say or think in private. That is why there is no way of working out what the ultimate outcome of all this will be. many of the ultra Brexiteers are fully aware of the damage to the economy: why would they otherwise protect their savings and investments by moving them abroad? why would they and their relatives have other passports? Does any one know what Corbyn REALLY thinks or wants? What are his and the party views on free movement of people from the EU?
Corbyn is a hard left marxist. He thinks the EU is a capitalist oligarchy he wants IMO the hardest of hard brexits himself. His views are not aligned to 80% of his party but they will never get rid until he loses yet another election. My view is his time has passed. he had his shot at it when may called her disasterous election. That election doomed us imo to hard brexit due to DUP but it also secured this terminal tory/dup alliance until the future relations deal is done (such as it is after hard brexit) IMO the tories will turf out MAy right after the brexit exit date and blem her for the disaster. The coutnry will never elect corbyn to fix an economic issue so he's going to fil next time round. The only things i'm sure of right now are: a) people will fudge round things for a short while, like airplanes.. ffs of course they are not going to ground all etc etc. b) there might be a few food issues but nothing massive. c) businesses have already struggled under exchange rate drop for 2 years. Put 15% on top and theres no option to to jack up prices. I don't think theres any buffer left but to see big hike in food costs in the near term. d) brass plate businesses in the EU will occur and some chancellor (might well not be hammond) will stand up one budget day and tell us all of a hole in tax take but I don't think there'll be a flood of jobs out of the UK very quickly. Those who have decided to move have done so, those wonder what to do like say nissan will take years to invest in plant. I expect a period of high inflation, some tightening of markets and opportunities and a continued lack of investment. its the longer term impacts that are more scary but unpredictable.
British car industry warns against no-deal Brexit as investment slumps No Deal Brexit: Armed Forces set to hold 'war games' within days Some 3,500 troops are being held at readiness to provide logistical support if the UK crashes out in a chaotic no deal Brexit
British Jews including many descendants of Holocaust victims 'are claiming German citizenship in their THOUSANDS' amid fears of no-deal Brexit
I'm considering claiming Hungarian citizenship just so that I can have an EU passport in case I ever want to return to Europe.
you can't hold more than US i think? I think a lot of yanks have done what you say but offically the US doesn't recognise dual citizenship? wouldn't you just get a visa like the rest of yanks?
Brexit: Third of UK businesses considering move abroad - survey https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47083214
the evidence in hard figures doesn't bear this out. there are moves yes but not to that level. its impossible to say if firms chose to not put more jobs here due to brexit etc etc. When it says uk business i am presuming they are long standing uk owned businesses. 16% have already located things elsehwere.... not sure if the employment figures level etc can prove or disprove.
good news though... as we freeze right now.... summer is taken care of. Magnum ice creams stockpiled ahead of Brexit
I wonder what proportion of the leavers were aware of the economic impact. Clearly we have different categories of leavers: Hardline Brexiteers: who wanted to leave the EU and were aware of the economic impact but still wanted it. Unaware Brexiteers: who wanted to leave because of what they've been told (control of immigration etc) but unaware of economic impact because they've been lied to regarding trading with rest of the world easy and that economy will be BETTER after Brexit. Soft Brexiteers: who were undecided, voted to leave but easily persuaded to change. Anti-establishment Brexiteers: those down in the dumps, who wanted to cause chaos as this is no skin off their noses. Clearly business will lose out here. At least in the short term.
My view is this: The vast majority are ideologists not economists. By this I mean most have voted based on the direction EEC/EC/EU has taken over years and feel the UK should be ruling world not being part of this european based system. things like undemocratic etc etc etc are used to describe EU. Its the pounds and ounces argument. If you really want to divide the ideology down the i would say: a) those who think they can make a killing, there are many in the south of england like mogg and farage who think its going to be great cos they sit atop a structure that will benefit from deregulation and of course the ability to short the market. b) those who genuinely think in their ordinary lives that a great benefit will come, all this money that the eu takes away is coming back. c) those who hate those foreigners taking our jobs. d) those who genuinely just don't care but have been waiting for years to bring back pounds and ounces and hate the thought of being told what to do by anyone but a local overlord. We need to realise that fighting brexit on economic terms is utterly pointless. It is an idealogical argument. The EU actually understands this far more as if you talk to any german they will not talk about trade but about better together and peace and harmony then sing Kumbaya The Ideaologists will tell you in the UK that ireland will just leave right after the uk anyway so why worry about border. Yet they apply economic logic to suit their ends in pushing this. Its very odd to me.
The US doesn't recognise dual citizenships if one is US. To the US, US citizenship trumps all others. Most other countries DO recognise dual citizenship and the US doesn't forbid you applying for other citizenships (they just don't recognise them themselves). So, if I applied for Hungarian citizenship in the eyes of most of the world I will hold three citizenships: British, American, and Hungarian (EU). The US wouldn't recognise anything but American though. I wouldn't want just a visa... I'd want the rights of any other EU citizen.
on holiday? wouldn't you rather be a brash yank blustering about the place expecting to be adored like the god you are rather than a mere eu citizen. Anyway... where in the EU would you be going bar on holiday.
Of course it is about ideology. For both leavers and remainers. The remainers could and probably should have played the economic card more but got lost in the face of screams of "Project Fear" from the leavers. Those people knowing full well that they were telling the truth. TBH unless one is interested in these matters it could get very complex. People just voted with their gut in the end. That's no consolation for those who are definitely going to losing their jobs.
I honestly believe they should not have played it at all, It was an obvious lie what johnson had on the buses. it was in repsonse to economic wishy washy stuff from corbyn. The Ideology of the european project had to be explained and how the UK has lead in it as well. For me the most important thing to remember about brexit (and the USA 2016 vote) is that people voted for CHANGE. As i said last week. If in doubt protect the status quo, don't know vote no... **** like that. If you go out to vote in it...and you vote to change you must be voting for something and some reason as you've not just sat on your arse. What about the european project is alien to the UK.... vetos, councils, parliaments, etc etc etc. regulations and standards, courts and common travel areas. but the thing i have to laugh about is farage would be the first person who be running a company employing eastern europeans at below minimum wage levels to sweat the arse out of whatever business he was in quite happily. He is of course too bust shorting the pound and is far beyond the employment of the great unwashed as a means to increase his riches.
