That race was the best we have seen in my opinion and he lost very little in defeat to a more experienced and quality rival. I was surprised to see him drift after. If he is going to win the Triumph then he needs to win this impressively tomorrow. I hope he does.
Torpillo was pretty much ruled out of this race by Anthony Bromley, the Racing Manager of the owners, at the start of the week. Nigel Twiston-Davies had said after Torpillo's latest win that the horse would go to the old Victor Ludorum race at Haydock, where he was likely to get soft ground. The trainer stated the Haydock ground should be ideal for the horse. With that in mind, I was shocked to see Torpillo as the original favourite for this race. Adjali opened at 3/1 but the price was gone when I started the thread the following day, so I only quoted the 2/1 available at the time. The way I see it Dogon is being asked a lot on his debut. Maybe they want to see where they are with him but he'll need to be quite talented to win this race first time up for a new trainer. Maybe a gentler start might have been better for the horse's confidence. Joey's horse looks well short here. Just a maiden winner at Cork on soft and this will be a different test by far. He is 16 lbs behind Adjali on Racing Post figures. Fakir D'oudairies had been Chasing over 18F in France on diabolical ground, so what is his basic intrinsic speed like? Adjali has one less career start to his name and I feel that the O'Brien horse is awful value. Protektorat didn't get far behind Nelson River and there is a lot of guesswork in backing him at only 5/1 here. He'll need to be very good to win this and he's no value for me personally. Nelson River won last time but he looked unlikely at one stage. It was a real wet sail job and sometimes I find horses unable to repeat that style of win. Someone who was at Cheltenham that day reported that they raced into a strong headwind on the run in and that he felt that the cards just fell right for Nelson River on the day, with others tiring late. This may well boil down to whose ratings are the most accurate. The Racing Post only have Adjali 5 lbs ahead of Our Power, while others have 12 lbs between the pair. Our Power's first two races have not worked out well, with zero winners from 23 subsequent runs. He beat an odds-on Henderson runner well last time out but that was a Class 4 race, whereas Adjali ran in a Class 1 last time out. I am not sure how the Racing Post assessor can have them so tight. Looking at the market, Adjali still appeals at 13/8. He's still unexposed and the trainer knows what it takes to win this. If I were pricing it up I would have Adjali at 5/4. Alan King has a good record in this race as well and I reckon Our Power is the horse for the forecast. Nelson River may need it more testing and the Skelton and O'Brien runners look priced on the trainers, rather than the horse's achievements this far. Coeur Sublime is entered at Ireland next week and I took 5/1 for him to win against Sir Erec and Tiger Tap Tap, who are shorter but have a good bit to find with the unfortunate Coeur Sublime. 5/1 looks excellent value and I don't think he'll start those odds in the Spring Juvenile. Aramon is also entered up next week. He had not looked anything special to start with but I thought he put in a strong performance last time out. I have done him for the Supreme Novices at 16/1 and feel he is one of few who will appreciate decent ground at Cheltenham. Willie Mullins felt the horse came forward and Ruby echoed that the horse was impressive last time and is improving. He's 3/1 for the Chanelle Pharma a week Sunday.
..from one of Europe's top judges..nobody gave that Fakir horse a mention or hope looking at all the posts on here..
I didnt even study the race tbh, didnt watch it either or any other race today, ive never claimed to be a judge in jump racing, its well documented that I think its a lottery and I barely spend any time on it these days I know Henderson usually has one for the Triumph and I knew Adjali had G1 form here with Quel Destin whos beaten everything in England and in France with the winner of their G1 juvenile, obviously the Irish have the best Juveniles but couldnt really claim that before today at least I was right about the easy winner being no bigger than 6/1
Value can only be gauged over a long period of time. There will be times a horse improves enough to bridge a gap but I felt the ratio of price to chance did not add up to 4/1 here. Nobody here really put up Fakir but that was for good reason. The horse had only won a maiden so far. If Henderson was so confident Joey's horse was the one, then I hope he had plenty on to make up for Adjali's Triumph dream looking in tatters at 25/1 now. Henderson was hardly the only one in the know, Joey's horse had been well backed the past few days. I would imagine it's hard to put an accurate rating on Fakir D'Oudairies after that. If Adjali ran to his 147 official mark, we would need to be ranking Joey's horse really strongly. With the stablemate also beating Adjali, it might be harder still to feel Adjali ran right to his best. I did say on other threads that I felt the Handicapper had Quel Destin and Adjali a bit high. That is why I went against Quel Destin in the Fred Winter. He looked poor value as favourite for that race. I had said Protektorat was bad value at his early odds and they could not give him away out to 12/1. Likewise I thought Nelson River might struggle to go the pace and that was exactly the way it panned out. I also commented that this looked the wrong race to start Dogon off in and Paul Nicholls got his answer in no uncertain terms about kicking off in this company. A bad bit of placing and Nelson River's trainer also learned that running a horse to find out if it is good enough for the Triumph can sometimes be a real reality check. Didn't get the winner and was a bit disappointed with Adjali but overall happy enough that I judged most of the race well and was simply outdone by a huge improver and a stablemate who has also shown better. I reckon the Official Handicapper will probably be revisiting Adjali's mark now. I had done Adjali ante-post because I reckoned Torpillo simply would not run. By backing at 3/1 I lost less than I would if joining the lemmings at 5/4 on the day. I approach each race in the same way and look for the value. Normally it's long odds-on that you will have backed a loser in the individual race but it's the long term that counts. I had a place at odds of 100/1 during the week, so that pays for losing bets to some extent. Will wait to see how Torpillo goes at Haydock to evaluate if my bet at 16/1 for the Triumph Hurdle has any feasibilty. To me he looked more of a Triumph type than Adjali. Fakir D'Oudairies is as low as 4/1 for the Triumph and that's not for me. Sir Erec is quite short too but I am planning on taking him on with Coeur Sublime in the upcoming Irish race. Footnote:- Someone should tell Fukuto's owners that the horse's name needs amended to read with the prefix "Notwortha"
Not happy that he was third. I was happy that I read the chances of other horses correctly. When analysing after a race, it is important to measure where you went wrong and what things you got right. That way you can make adjustments and tweak for improvement. I don't see why taking the piss is necessary but crack at it if it makes you feel better.
You should have looked back in on oddschecker yesterday evening when Josephs horse was blue across the board. Tweak away.
tragic stuff lads if you get 2 or 3/1 about hendersons 5/4 fav in this race every year you will do ok in the long run, its not about individual results
Oh yeah, you had a connection at Botti's yard and the horse ran like a drain. Sometimes in Racing it just doesn't happen for the horses.
The last Botti tip I had hosed up...you probably remember it got a lot of likes, not from you though Ex-member.
Hang on, less of the insults, I came onto the thread and said 2s wasn’t value and that I didn’t like the jolly, yet I’m up someone’s backside? Get a grip and stop turning to insults when you lose, and only things I’ve seen you win on here are races from 2017 when you weren’t a member. Alas some can, and some aftertime. Now trot on.
Maybe you said something against one of Sticks tip, I remember he went in a huff with me for a while because I put a dampener on his Cliffs of Moher Eclipse theory. Just agree with him and there will no problems, capiche?
whats the story with Henderson knowing about Obriens horse being good? seen it mentioned a few times here
