Frodon and Mister Whittaker, i know its a bad year but not that bad. Road To Respect 12/1 looks the value. Presenting Percy the danger if it turns up soft.
Presenting Percy is entered in the Galmoy Hurdle next Thursday. He won the same race last season, when the going was heavy, before going on to be beaten in the Red Mills Chase by Our Duke. His only other entry at the moment is the Irish Gold Cup. Hard to assess how Presenting Percy will go for his small yard when he does appear. The stable had three runners at the end of December but you would have needed Marco Polo to find where in the world they went that day. Pat Kelly's last winner was on 5th August. I don't see value at 4/1 given that he will most likely need it very soft and have to improve a bit more this season. Clan Des Obeaux is a "New kid on the block" after winning the King George, while Native River was simply badly placed by his trainer/owner last time. How many Welsh National winners have managed to later land the 3 miles race at Kempton? Prior to that Native River had run perfectly well at Haydock, managing to finish ahead of Clan Des Obeaux whilst only being bested by the horse who "Owns" the race at his beloved track. Might Bite has had wind surgery and although Henderson is not sure it will work the trick, the horse clearly holds some sort of chance if bouncing back to his best. Kemboy went away from his field in the Lexus, beating Monalee by pretty much the same margin as Presenting Percy had in the RSA at the Festival. The Mullins Chaser has won his last four races and the JLT at Cheltenham would have been short enough for him given that his next start was in the Irish Grand National, where we learned nothing after he fell at the 1st when fancied by quite a few. Kemboy is only 2 lbs lower than Presenting Percy and he has won on Good, Soft and Heavy going, so he's more versatile that the favourite for the race. Should he be double the odds of Presenting Percy based on all the evidence? Road To Riches has a bit to make up with Kemboy from the Lexus and his J N Wine win has worked out pretty badly since. I did Native River at 7/1 and I expect he will be setting out to serve it up to them on the day. 4/1 Presenting Percy looks very tight to me.
these odds are not worth taking , to many imponderables at play , not least going , form wise many have been uneven , you offer various reasons , but until we know who is actually lining up , a lot of ifs and buts are at play , i suppose nrnb makes it less risky but that is factored into early prices is it not . I recall the time that Lord Windermere lined up, it was only when they were milling around at the start , he caught the eye , at 25/1 he was ew play , the race wasn't a classic but he relished the stamina test and did the job , no doubt many will crib him , but you can't take it away , on the day he did the business . Sometimes it pays to keep an open mind in these type of competition .
Agree mostly but you can still get some value post NRNB if your fancy isn't with a leading trainer IMO.
This is exactly my sentiment I backed lord windermere and even tipped it on here at 50/1. Something was wrong with Nichols yard first for a year or so but his horses are flying this year. I expect Frodon to improve out of sight but he’s got to win the Cotswold chase easily next week. He likes the course and he stays all day. I admit though not being one off the top judges in Europe. What do I know?
winning the cotswold , a grade 2 , and a gold cup are very different tests , last year Definately Red won the former , quite convincingly , which then made him a low price and a talking horse for the GC , both were on heavy ground , winning the cotswold took more out of him than was apparent , it always does in these types of races where horses are often asked for their all , it's why it's so difficult to attempt multiple winnings , even a repeat performance is outstanding . This year Ellison and co have wisely decided to keep DR fresh , whether that will pay off , who knows , but he'll have a better chance than last year surely , provided he gets his preferred ground , there are worse value than 20/1 about him ....... .....one of the top judges in my house ......'
Kemboy has no chance, wont stay. Last years gold cup seems to have left its mark on Might Bite and Native River, and the latter only has a chance if it comes up a bog again. The ground was too soft for Road To Respect last year, he looks a better horse this season and hes the right age at 8yo, ran a blinder in the Lexus where Danny Mullins stole it off a crawl on Kemboy. Road To Respect was poorly placed and hampered at a crucial stage, then stumbled and almost went down losing all chance, was up for 2nd in another stride. If its proper good ground at Cheltenham I wouldnt oppose him, soft ground youd say the stars have aligned for Presenting Percy.
I knew a guy from another forum who felt that the Cotswold Chase on testing ground was a bad preparation for the Gold Cup itself. It's been a while since the winner went on to win the Gold Cup afterwards. I can't agree that Frodon stays all day because he simply hasn't looked like he does and has seemed to come into his own at a bit shorter. I followed Frodon in his Novice season and stuck with him in the Kauto Star Chase at Kempton. A good judge on another forum told me that he felt the horse would not stay the three miles but I wanted to give the horse the chance as I had felt coming in that Might Bite had not won much of any real consequence. In the end Might Bite was in the process of winning comfortably when falling at the last but Frodon had simply appeared to run out of petrol and he was well beaten when also falling at after Might Bite had done. Frodon tried 3 miles again and that time Might Bite coasted home eased down to leave Frodon second in a four runner affair. His other attempt at 3 miles saw him second to Gold Present in a Handicap race off what was a generous enough mark of 159. In the Gold Cup Frodon will have further still to travel and he'll be at level weights with the best Chasers around. It is likely that Native River will be trying to make sure no one gets an easy ride and will have to stay within reasonable striking distance. With the best will in the world, I just couldn't be planning to try to recoup my Kauto Star Chase losses from a couple of years ago with a bet on Frodon in the Gold Cup but the best of luck to those who feel he might last home. Regarding value in the prices now, my own bet was on Native River prior to the King George misplacement and it's hard for me to envisage him going off bigger than the 7/1 I took at the time. If he does go off bigger, it is almost certainly because of some problem. Presenting Percy is unlikely to contract much unless he shows something startling in winning the Galmoy Hurdle. Even if he is cut, bookies tend not to lengthen the others in the list very much despite the logic being that, if one horse's chances are deemed stronger, by dint, the others should now be less likely to win because of that. What if Presenting Percy were to flop next Thursday? He represents 20% of the current book and surely layers would feel they could be a bit more generous with his odds in order to attract money for a horse with an additional question mark. I would imagine most of the market leaders will show on the day barring setback(s), it would be a waste to have a good contender in an open looking year and then bypass the most prestigious race for Steeplechasers. I notice that Mister Whitaker goes in the 2m 5f Bet365 race tomorrow, probably ruling out any notion of a Gold Cup attempt. With that in mind it probably means the Ryanair if they feel like tilting at the higher rated entrants for that contest. With that in mind he surely needs to win tomorrow and win it well enough to earn a rating that leaves him on a realistic stepping stone mark that could theoretically see him bridging the gap to horses like Min, Waiting Patiently and Footpad, through another jump forward in terms of improvement. As I said earlier, 8/1 for tomorrow was surely better value.
Kemboy won easily over 3 miles on Heavy ground a Limerick and Mullins put him in the Irish National, so presumably he felt the horse would have stayed that trip. Kemboy's last 3 runs read:- "Stayed on well to assert from last" "Stayed on best" ""Kept on strongly run in to go clear" I am not really seeing strong evidence that he's a short runner. On Native River, I think people tend to forget that he was a short head away from second to Sizing John in a Gold Cup run on good ground. That Gold Cup time was fast by 0.9 seconds, compared to 25.6 seconds slow the following year. I think a fast run race over a distance can be testing on stamina in a different way, as some horses need to be a bit out of their comfort zone pace in order to keep tabs. I am hoping Tizzard has him primed on the day and that he can perhaps prove that his great effort of faster ground in 2017, as a 7YO, was no fluke.
That Gold cup sizing John won was a shocking renewal, minella rocco 2nd who's only win over fences was the novice plodders race. Sizing John spent career getting outclassed by Douvan who wasn't even as good as Vautour. Native River would have won that race by 10+ on soft. Agree that his price will only go one way, he won it last year and its the best form in the book. I just don't think its a coincidence that him and might bite have not been able to reach last seasons heights, was beefy who always said its near impossible to win gold cups back to back but many have won it at the second attempt including native river, and its quite clear that he is suited by soft ground. If he gets his ground he will be near fav but on good ground there is a better candidate imo.
The Gold Cup is turning into a fascinating heat, not least because of the major questions surrounding the early season favourites for the race. We now have a race that is open and cases can be made for many of the field. However let me take you back to last year and Anibale Fly, who ran such a good race to finish third. He was a young handicapper who won over Christmas in one of the most competitive handicaps off 149 if I read the form correctly and then fell in a grade 1 before turning up at Cheltenham. He was relatively battle hardened for a young horse and he ran with great credit, given the front two looked like a very good pair. So let’s take this forward a year and look at Elegant Escape who is a second season chaser who won a big handicap over Christmas off 151. He showed that day that he’s tough and genuine and given that last year a high 150s horse ran into a place, I think EE can be a mid 160s horse at least and he ticks lots of boxes in terms of stamina, season form and he ran a fair race at the festival behind PP last year. Has he improved the 14 lengths on that horse? Who knows but at big prices he certainly isn’t a forlorn hope. Let’s see if he is entered up in the Cotswold Chase next week, because if he is and the ground doesn’t turn dead, I think it will be a perfect preparation race this season for the festival
My argument being Nicholls horses were out of sorts for well over a year and at present are flying. Only a fool wouldn’t give his horses another look at present. We will find out next week.
A fair point but I can't shake the day in the Kauto Star when I saw him tire in front of my eyes. I also wonder if a tough race in the Cotswold might scupper his Festival plans totally. It might not be the best prep for the Ryanair. Good luck.
Mister Whitaker was thumped today. He didn't look as if further would have helped him. Surely it's one of the Handicap's for him at the Festival now? Pushed out to 40/1 for the Ryanair and 100/1 for the Gold Cup. He should really get dropped a little by the handicapper for today's effort. Cyrname is likely to get thumped by at least a 10lb rise for romping home today. He had looked a decent prospect when chasing home Nicky Henderson's Terrefort in the Scilly Isles but it didn't quite work out for him thereafter. Terrefort was terrible on his return this season but had looked useful at Aintree in the Mildmay Novice race, where he was 12 lengths ahead of Elegant Escape and he's still a young horse.
Struggling to take to anything in the Supreme but have thought for a while that Thomas Darby would run well, wouldn't be good enough in a normal year but can see him running top 5 at least and 25s ew will do for an interest, cant see his price shortening much.
Was a bit disappointed with Mr Whitaker today really thought he would put himself in the picture for the Ryanair. Will be interesting to see where he heads to at the festival (assuming he does). Difficult to predict what his main target will now be..
Couldn't agree more - and we're getting real value (comparatively speaking) from the yard as they're backable prices these days. I'm not convinced he will get much joy out of the grade 1 races but expect him to do well in the handicaps. I just wish Parliament would make it's mind up quickly - my annual leave request for the second week in March is hanging by a thread. Wish the buggers could get their priorities right
