May will lose the vote on her deal today. But she will react by announcing that a no deal Brexit is unacceptable for its catastrophic consequences. And she will immediately extend the implementation of article 50 for an indefinite which will be approved by most of the MPs. Forget about what she said earlier. She had to close all options to give her deal a chance. She leaves Brexit in limbo without having a 2nd referendum and a snap general election.
I think she’ll defintiely lose tonight, but my own opinion is that the margin of defeat won’t be as broad as is being suggested. I’ve seen figures of 200+ mentioned, I think it’ll be nearer the hundred mark, maybe just under. I also don’t think she’ll do that, she’ll announce that she’s bringing it back for another vote (ironic) and will stress again that it’s this or no deal and maybe no Brexit.. She’ll be hoping the clock ticking down frightens the moderates and that the real prospect of no Brexit moves the ERG. She’ll now doubt also try Brussels for one last time. I’ll state categorically now, that with the caveat that May stays as PM, then no deal simply won’t happen. They’re not that stupid, yes, even this lot, there’s enough grown ups in senior positions and a majority in the overall House against it..
she can't extend it herself he needs to agree a date with eu. I believe 1st July was mentioned women were as a good date. the reality is corbyn has already stated what he would do to negotiate and what he suggests hives off ni as the model wouldn't deal with that border. thus he's got nothing. imo some labour mps might abstain but she's never getting out of this with less than 100 vote defeat... possible 150. she might well bring it back but it's a pointless exercise. corbyn imo doesn't want either referendum or election. he needs to throw in his trump card of no confidence or look a total dick but I think he wants to lose it. I am not sure he will do it today/tonight. I think Friday max? he's got to do it this week.
The pound crept higher in Asia morning trading on Tuesday, ahead of a vote in the UK parliament on Theresa May’s proposed Brexit deal. please log in to view this image
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46869661 brexit disaster overpriced teddies are not selling as well are normal in the UK
No deal will categorically not happen. Extension and 2nd referendum, or general election and second referendum.
btw i am going to predict the vote will only occur after midnight tonight after so many amendments that the 3 working parliament days will formally start thrusday to give may the weekend off... oh sorry to talk to eu. could she pull this stunt?
I think the margin of defeat will be in three figures. Around 120+. Remember it only needs 60+ tories to vote against (assuming labour mostly vote against too ) for that to happen. At a very simplistic level, I can see why a voting down of her deal should lead to a no deal Brexit. None of the other Brexit options like Norway + etc carry the (assumed) reasons why Brexit was voted for in 2016. Immigration control , free trade and laws. For the ideological Brexiteer, a new referendum would be like a group of employees (MPs) being ordered by their superiors (the people/electorate) to carry out a task (withdrawing from the EU) and coming back and saying “sorry we the task force can’t agree, can you go back and decide whether you want to ask us again to do that job. May be you REALLY didn’t want to give us that task?” Extending the Brexit for an indefinite period would be like”you’ve asked us to do that job. We’ll do it but we don’t know when it will be done”. No wonder we are in a hell of a mess and this is the most divided country we’ve seen. Cameron has a lot to answer for.
I don’t think Friday is a normal Parliamentary working day, so she’d have until Monday anyway I think. The vote is supposed to be at 7 isn’t it?
The eu will not allow indefinite extensions. why? Eu parliament votes are coming up. They **** UK MEPs gone before it. Remember we have to pay full budget as well if we extend. There is a clear case of an extension for a year and some fudge for EU parliament as it pushes hole in eu budget down the road. This deal is clearly dead as UK never knew what it wanted day one and day 600 it stil ldidn't know. A clear majority of parliament still doesn't know what it wants. the evidence for this is every tom, dick and boris has some clever name for their own version of what actually amounts to deals so similar to May's deal that its not worth talking about. Nobody can solve the NI border. its that simple. If they want brexit with some free trade set up form some goods and services you have to sign up to some EU regulations. its that simple. If they don't and want to pay tariffs to trade with EU and maybe not be able to then trade some goods and services as they don't compley fine.. no bother. just say what you want.
voting starts at 7.... theres going to be several amendments first so i've heard 9pm and 10pm so far... a bit of filibustering and it'll be into tomorrow.
He’ll do it tonight imo, straight after the result, with motion to be heard tomorrow. They’ll lose that vote. However, it’s not pointless, as it closes the door on ousting the Govt and getting a GE, which was the first choice of Labour Conference. The failed no confidence vote ends that possibility (unless she resigns) and it then opens the door for Labour to get behind the second referendum, which was their phase 2.
"Cameron has a lot to answer for" like blair, neither give a **** about the people (ie the gullible ****s who pay their taxes!!!) too busy counting their ££££
Future trade options aren’t even what this about though, that’s yet to come. This is merely us leaving the EU and creating a transition period whilst that negotiation formally starts. That’s what makes the bluster and waffle from Brexiters so laughable, as this sees us out, then what follows is up for debate.
