'Secret' £75m Brexit contracts facing investigation. http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexi...investigation/ar-BBS1k0I?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=iehp
but by law she does not have 21 days. once the vote is lost she has 7 days by law. this 3 day limit to put a motion forth is pointless as she can put any motion including no deal.brexit motion she can be confident that will be defeated. she's got a very short time to make statement of intent after losing vote.
What law? The 21 day limit is part of the Withdrawal Act She’s already delayed the vote by a month, and she fully intended doing it again, hence the reason for this amendment.
Exactly, she’s been trying to blackmail the House by allowing the clock to tick down and claiming there’s only her deal or no deal. Hoping that this tack would see the resolve of the House crack as the deadline loomed. She’s now had that removed, as the House weren’t having it
Brexit: Jeremy Corbyn demands election to 'break deadlock' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46824125
act = law her original vote was after deal was struck and approved by eu. she didn't need to hold it when she first mooted it. the deadline is 21st Jan... she can delay up to but not past 21st. the amendment only requires her to bring a new motion to parliament after vote. it doesn't say she's got to have a vote on 15th. she's out of road.
Struck me the other day, Britain (May) should have demanded that the Brexit negotiations should have had a neutral party (a country or representative of non-European origin) mediating. If we take the analogy of a divorce that is often cited, there is a a Judge or Mediator who sits and settles arguments in a fair way as they have no stake in the issue. Other wise you just get two side shouting what they want until one just gives in.
The act isn’t law mate, that’s sort of the point, you said she had to come ack to the House within 7 days of losing the vote before the amendment - she didn’t. She had 21 days to come back to the House. The amendment now forces her hand and her desire to run down the clock simply won’t work. When she loses that vote next week, unless she gets some last minute EU concession on the backstop, which is highly unlikely, she’ll have to admit defeat, as the margin of defeat is liable to be very large. At that point the House will try to take over the process and formally rule out a no deal exit.
The EU would have never accepted that, why would they? The entire point is that they’re a rules based organisation and they were never going to change those rules for a departing member. The Unicornists sold a completely false promise of what was ever possible. Once May created her own (completely mandateless) red lines in the Mansion House speech, we were always going to end up where we are, as the simple reality is that upholding the GFA is incompatible with leaving the CU without a technological solution that Brexiteers claimed exists without ever proving it.
well.. if the eu were shouting ok but they are not. the reality is this is so far an internal eu matter but after 29th march it's a 60million person market place asking a 400million odd market place to do a trade deal. I fail to see where mediation is required. a deal was struck. the UK can't ratify the deal. the deal falls through. UK leaves eu with no deal. global recession hits... simple really. it's global cos independent trumps ground the US and Chinese economy's into shuddering showdowns
Whatever happens in the global economy (and Trump & China are already softening their positions, which has seen the US stock exchange boosted this week) is irrelevant to the completely self imposed economic sanctions that the U.K. would be inflicting upon itself with ‘no deal’. Fortunately the grown ups know what a fiscal disaster it’d be, and despite the posturing there’s zero political will for it, outside of the barmy fringe of the Tory party, and those who are now championing it solely because its stops them having to explain what the deal they’ve been saying for nearly 3 years would be better than what we’ve got, actually is i.e. the Unicornists.
How is it irrelevant? Its the surrounding climate. examples: germany is in effect in a manufacturing recession due to car sales. (tied to emission issues and changing tests) US job figures have boosted thier economy not trump and china (watch for trump throwing something in with these china trade talks) Technology across the board are showing slowing sales. So in this context the UK is going to leave the EU. While the majority say no deal is and they have limited options a) accept May's deal... the primary reasons fro not accepting it is the zombie status it provides and a flag waving exercise for the DUP. May's deal basically says the worse case final trade deal. The reality is the brexiteers want a far more distant relationship with EU but the EU said **** off. So this deal is Close ties to EU in final trade deal or no deal. b) reject MAy's deal and.... b.1) no deal brexit which some are already calling a "managed no deal" loonies in other words reliant on EU good will as advertised by their preparations for no deal b.2) ask for extension of article 50 and have some form of something... an election as corbyn really doesn't want a new referendum on anything. In short.... the reality to my mind seems to be corbyn will do anything bar do something that keep UK in EU. I think he has no clue what he'd do if he won said election. I think he wishes to have may lose her vote and then immediately go for no confidence to prevent labour party guidelines pushing him to say referendum. If he wins no confidence then its election. I think he doesn't even want that cos then he'd risk winning and having to deal with the mess So for me A is now impossible. May is just dragging it out to get down to a point (we are already welll past it) where no negotiations with EU are possible any more. B.1 is about 70% likely and B2 is still a possibility. The issue with B2 is I'm not sure tories or DUP will collapse parliament.
German manufacturing simply isn’t in recession yet mate sorry. WLTP affected outputs in the car industry and there’s been a general slowdown, but the recession calls are premature. Any global recession is irrelevant to what we inflict upon ourselves voluntarily, it’d merely be another bucket of **** to add to the one we’d already poured onto our own collective heads. It’s therefore irrelevant to Brexit itself. Corbyn is as deluded as some of the back bench, swivel eyed loon Tories. He’s not going to win a vote of no confidence and barring a resignation from May, there can be no coup to oust her from within that might be the catalyst for a GE. His idea that he can somehow negotiate a deal that meets their ‘6 tests’ is pure unicornism. There’s a vague possibility that May could get something more than platitudes from the EU after her vote loses next week, that might (it’s a long shot) be enough to placate the moderates, when she inevitably brings it back for a second vote. However, for this tack to stand any chance, the House needs to truly believe that ‘no deal’ is the only other outcome, and given the events of this week, that’s simply not now the case imo. No deal doesn’t have the backing of the House, that’s already been proven, therefore the Executive would have to go against the majority of elected MP’s to allow the clock to tick down, in what be the biggest political decision since the War. I simply can’t see this outcome being allowed to occur, as not even the cabinet support no deal. There’ll either be an extension to A50 or they’ll revoke it. Allowing time for the nation to review its position.
ok you lot i know im a noob in this politics ****e but this is my theory on this crap. if it looks like may will lose any vote made i think the torries will **** her off and get a new leader hoping the country will be gullible enough to think the torries are the right party to see this forward, doesn't help having corbyn who is hanging on for his own ****ing principles as the only challenge and i have a feeling sadly the country will fall for the ****e. if i have lost the plot don't care it's friday
They can’t **** her off mate, as she won a vote of no confidence and they can’t call another one within 12 months. If she goes she’d have to resign.
I said german manufacturing Its contracted for past 2 quarters I gave 70% for no deal as **** can happen to change the appeal of May's deal. I can't see her bring it back. Shes losing votes "narrowly" 290 odd vots but when she brings her deal i doubt she will bet more than 200. maybe as low as 150. The house can vote what it likes but i am not sure they can actually impact no deal. ITs actually the desire by eu not to have one. IF they pass a vote requiring her to withdraw article 50 (which could not happen imo) would she?
The margin of defeat might impact on whether she brings it back again, but personally I think she will, after a last gasp attempt at gaining an EU legally binding concession on the backstop. You think the EU want no deal? Seriously? The House can out forward amends to bills that make no deal more difficult practically and politically, but it can’t stop it directly unless there’s a specific vote. May would be mental to push through with a no deal Brexit when the House has made it clear it doesn’t back it, which mirrors the public position. It won’t hapoen mate.
