Off Topic UK / EU Future

I am not, and have never claimed to be a senior civil servant. You have frequently called me a low ranking nobody or words to that effect and I haven't disagreed.
I said we're ramping up preparations for no deal. I have never at any point said leaving without a deal won't cause any problems.
If you can provide any quotes to disprove that fine. Otherwise please stop misrepresenting me.

 

It is you that has openly discussed your role in Brexit as a civil servant. I would have thought to be likened to a 'senior' civil servant is not so bad. I am not aware that anybody has claimed Brexit will not cause any problems, there is however a growing awareness amongst the more knowledgeable that these can be handled without too much drama.

 

Why did you use that term and how could you possibly know?

One thing that could add to the issues arising as we move forward is whether the people who so strongly support one direction as opposed to the other can get over it and move on. Which ever side wins (not that I think "win" is a very good term for this), in an ideal world the winners would be as graceful as the losers. However when you see the animosity and bear-baiting that takes place here and on other forums you realise there is little hope.

I saw the other day a story about a guy's family reaction to him getting a German passport. Then I saw on an expat forum people asking how you handle such family divides (in their case getting a spanish passport). How about you get whatever documentation you are entitled to and keep you mouth shut? Seems simple. Do I really care if OFH has a french or UK passport? Do I need to know? Would it change me opinion of him?

We have recently seen how street violence (in France) can lead to concessions (and dent the French economy). This lesson will not be missed by those so fixed in their views.

A question for those very fixed in their views "Where would you stop if you do not get your way?".

Would you protest? Or is there a time when you would say "OK we lost", let's make the best of where we are?

 

I was simply referring to those very experienced operators who are used to making sure the UK's imports and exports run as smoothly and efficiently as possible. Given a political will on all sides, which is the major doubt with the EU, any disruption could be minimised.

 

A good post KC. History goes on and we must go along with it if we can't form it. Whichever way it goes the British will have to get down to living together again. Situated where I am I can't influence things that much and have dual nationality, which means I have a foot in and one out. I delayed taking German nationality for years because my father was blinded in one eye during World War 2, and I had a feeling that there could have been family problems (I could have hidden the fact, but I didn't feel good with that) - so I waited until after his death before starting the process. My main concern after Brexit is that Britain does not develop into a satellite colony of the USA or China - that we do not join a 'race to the bottom' on things like environmental protection and working conditions, that we do not see our future as a kind of tax oasis before the gates of Europe. It alarms me that all the hardest Brexiters come from the far right of the political spectrum - people who have given no thought to workers rights until now - so, with Brexit, I think yes, maybe, but not now and not with them. Brussels remains only 2 hours train journey from London, and is not going away anywhere, so one day (when the hardest Brexiters are dead) we may rejoin.

 

So like me you have heard the opinion of a small fraction of players who are happy to share their views with yourself. It is a pity superhorns that you, a person at some base level who has some similar views to myself, insist on outlandish exaggeration to try and justify the value of your opinion. Can you not see how you do not aid the argument when you treat those who disagree with you as stupid? Why can't you treat them with respect? Then we could move the discussion forward.

 

I have not treated those that highlight project fear as stupid but as merely gullible.

I have considerable experience of running a company with a 5,000 pallet warehouse dealing with hundreds of differing products and tariffs. I know how smoothly trading can be using willing experienced operators. To hear the most senior port authority personnel dispel the idea that we cannot cope after Brexit, given goodwill on all sides, carries considerable weight for me.

 

Cologne interesting to here from someone with real knowledge of the issue. I can understand not wanting to offend your father. I'm glad to say that wouldn't have been an issue for me as the time my dad spent in Germany left him with a keen desire to visit many times. Of course, luckily he wasn't wounded. And now I'm in Spain the relations who died fighting with the International Brigade are long gone.

I must admit I'm not too worried about how the UK goes forward any more than I worry about the way the EU moves forward. As long as there is a healthy democratic environment (of course it will never be perfect) then I'd be happy whatever it wants to do. The decisions are, in my case anyway, for future generations. That said Asian investment this year in the UK tech and in particular AI market has been impressive. And for example I think these are interesting:

• "As a result, Vancouver venture capital firm Chrysalix and Japanese VC group Global Brain will both open European HQs in the UK, and respectively invest up to £110 million in AI and robotics and £35 million in deep-tech start-ups in the country." April 26 2018.
• And while this for example is UK to UK it demonstrates what investors are after. "November 29, 2018. Novartis is on the move in the UK, relocating its national headquarters from Frimley in Surrey to London to get closer to the capital’s emerging life sciences cluster"
• And the likely move of Apple into 500,000 sq. feet of Battersea power station in 2021.

As for rejoining I think the Euro (not the EU) will break leaving a northern zone (who knows who will bundle in with Germany beyond the obvious (e.g Austria). There is no longer available credit in the Med countries to feed German exports. But that is just my view backed up by Yanis Varoufakis who I appreciate that he doesn't simply give a view but explains the logic behind it.

 

Fifty times better. I like it. Can't you see how that post could be persuasive

Do you have knowledge of any plans (general of course) on technology changes that will be required and, a problem I know many are struggling with, how long will the changes take to be tested and implemented when we still do not know the basis of tariffs? I'd be interested in your thoughts.

 

I agree that the Euro could disappear as a currency - it was a mistake, but it is worth mentioning that it was the Southern European countries which wanted it the most whereas Germany was very sceptical. Germany only agreed to it as a condition which was set for the German reunification. However there is nothing to stop other currencies reappearing as parallel currencies to it. There are some areas of Italy which still use the Lira as a parallel currency.

 

I have not been involved in the family business for several years now so not up with the latest developments. What I do know is once product tariffs are agreed they are freely available to be entered onto freight forwarders systems and available for all interested parties. Trusted traders have accounts with Freight forwarders on a monthly basis and all amounts for import duties and VAT are collected. Of course their are mistakes made but they can be later discovered and corrected by any of the parties involved including customs officials. I fail to see why much of the future trade with the EU cannot be run as smoothly. The JIT process may or may not prove a little more difficult but again businesses normally find a way of solving problems.

 

Germany benefits hugely by being currency aligned with other poorly performing EU countries, this artificially keeps down the cost of its exports.
Trump will no doubt correct the present unfair trading tariff arrangement currently in place. This will damage Germany's exports to the US.

 

The original thinking (according to Yanis and others) was that many people in the Piggs were property rich. (where as in some northern EU areas renting is still a normal option). So all that was needed was to offer the people of property cheap credit. As superhorns said it was better still as German products looked cheap with the shared Euro across rich and poor.

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A bit of a change of subject. I see the Spanish government has offered deals to the UK on: trade, Citizens, Aviation. and Gibraltar. And seems confident it has a solution to the Iberia (part of IAG) issue. Of course Spain has a lot to lose. The UK is the fourth biggest receiver of its exports, it doesn't want an intrumption to tourist arrivals, it wants Brit pensioners who simply spend pensions to stay, and doesn't want the Gib border closed (even though it is the Spanish who have invariably closed it in the last 50 years).

However, despite the deals likely to be accepted by the UK, it has good reason to be concerned. Morocco can now trade with the UK on equal terms as Spain. Can't see the big supermarket buyers missing an opportunity. And the pensioners are already returning to blightie as the pound exchange rate hovers around 1.10. And with unrest in Catalunya and the rising of the right wing extremists (the VOX party gained representation in the Andalucia elections - way beyond even their dreams - and are rising in popularity across the country) they have concern over the people taking to the streets - or even worse.

For sure as others have said we live in interesting times.

 

I am confident sterling will appreciate significantly once the Brexit outcome becomes more settled. I would urge the Brits in Spain to hang on, the pound is well undervalued at the moment. Although the weather is very mild here we have had another thick blanket of cloud today, YUK.

Hopefully those Spanish farmers with thousands of livelihoods to worry about will put pressure on the French to behave sensibly at their ports.

 

Spot on Duggie but we are a long way from that as you say with so much political and religious discord around the world.
I doubt homosapiens will grow up sufficiently very quickly.
The problem with the European model is that it is not flexible enough to accommodate the needs of it's members.
Something catastrophic will need to happen to make the world see sense such as a visit by Aliens or an extiction event either environmentally, human or of a cosmic nature.

 

The leave campaign are lying. They have form.

 

Her Maj in her Christmas message on TV sent a message perhaps aimed at Brexiteers and Remainers (applies in most other situations too really):

"Even with the most deeply held differences, treating the other person with respect and as a fellow human being is always a good first step to greater understanding"

Can this be this threads new year resolution?

 

100% agree.. The party political.. I win you lose approach is just divisive

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Couldn't agree more. You and I won't ever agree on EU exit but at least we can be nice to each other about it!

 

My New Years resolution is be nice to those silly remoaners, have I got the hang of this love in?