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King George VI Steeplechase Boxing Day

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Grendel, Dec 16, 2018.

  1. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    He seemed to take exception that some of our gang on here ((in his words) "have only got to fart to get a like") are possibly more popular than others.

    It may be true to a degree, but that's just human nature and he obviously took it personally.

    I always enjoyed his write ups, even if I disagreed, I hope he is well, and I'm sure he will be welcomed back by most.
     
    #41
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  2. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    non entity <cheers>

    Undoubtedly the guy knows his stuff but he definitely didnt like having his assessment questioned and made some very rude and disparaging comments. One of the biggest after-timers we have seen for sure. Didnt actually mention the King George winner in his write up!

    Hopefully his operation went well and he is doing fine.
     
    #42
  3. Black Caviar

    Black Caviar 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    jump racing is a lottery, think recent days has shown that if you didnt already know it, I was more interested in his flat racing opinions
     
    #43
  4. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Are you going to publish your flat horses to follow next season this year?
     
    #44
  5. Black Caviar

    Black Caviar 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    not sure, i normally have a shortlist just now but didnt do it last season, I will probably rewatch all the maidens at some point over the next few months
     
    #45
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  6. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

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    the truth is he
    that's hardly true really is it ? if horses always performed to their best at every opportunity there would be no betting , yes there is the obstacles that need negotiating but by and large results would be unvarying , not betting angles .as horses are animals not machines this is not the case .
    even on the flat , results can be unpredictable, factors like the going , yard form or not , bad riding by the jockey , all or one can effect the outcome , i know some don't like low grade events , but sometimes these provide the best angles from a betting perspective . some of those so called races in ireland show how uncompetitive graded racing can become with the industry dominated by three / four owners / operations.... everyone likes to have their angle , that's what's great about this forum , your flat reviews are great , but don't diss the jumps as a lottery , it sounds like a mug punter who loses on all the favs , i know you're no mug , unless it's scissors ✂️ involved !
     
    #46
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  7. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Hope I wasn't one of the farters but fear as you get older you don't always know.
     
    #47
    Reebok, stick, Chaninbar and 2 others like this.
  8. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I am primarily a Flat follower Eddie. Much to the surprise of the "Aftertimer" jibers I actually pick out selections as soon as betting becomes available. There is ample evidence of that on this forum, successful I might add.

    I may be doing a Flat preview for the 2019 season depending on the time available.

    Here is an interesting horse for the upcoming season:-

    http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/3229/

    Mer Et Nuages was winning a Listed contest and earned a RPR of 106 for his effort but the manner of the win was what makes me think he has top class potential. He was like a sports car passing bangers as he quickened up to go clear pretty effortlessly. He has quite a rapid action anyway but when asked he noticeably increases his cadence further still. It wasn't even hands and heels really.

    His previous race worked out quite well. Runner up Wusool landed a Group 3 race, while third home Intellogent won a Group 3 before only going down a length in 4th place in the French Derby. He then went on to win the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat.

    Mer Et Nuages is trained by Andre Fabre and the son of Lope De Vega was 3rd on debut before winning his next three starts. The colt was owned by Fabre's wife until Godolphin purchased him just before his 4th start. Mer Et Nuages was due to run in that Prix Jean Prat but met with a minor setback and was kept out for a possible autumn reappearance but we did not see him again.

    Very much the pick of the paddock on his 4th start, there was much to like about the way the colt did the business in easy style and if over his setback he looks a horse who could reach a level of 120 with improvement.

    Quoted at 12/1 for the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, there is not a lot of value in those odds until we see him back and well on the track. I had a similar feeling with Le Brivido last season but that horse met with further setbacks and on balance I feel Mer Et Nuages looks a more exciting prospect after dismantling a Listed field with little or no problem. The form of his previous race looks well above average for the type of contest it was.

    Hopefully January 1st is early enough not to be aftertiming.

    ps If I had realised Might Bite was going to flop, Native River was going to be taken off his feet, Politologue would patently fail to stay and that Bristol De Mai would fall, bringing down Waiting Patiently, I might have put a word in for Clan Des Obeaux in the King George.

    God, you have to laugh at some people. Irony goes right over their heads.

    Happy New Year everybody.
     
    #48
  9. Reebok

    Reebok YTS Mod
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    Happy New Year Grendel and nice write up :)

    Or is that irony? <laugh>
     
    #49
  10. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    <laugh> Happy New Year. Hope your hospital visit went well
     
    #50
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  11. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Boom, another antepost bet landed!
     
    #51
    stick likes this.
  12. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Boom and another tedious turd has to get his five Lira worth in. Try writing something cogent for once instead of showing your ignorance. Bookies must love clueless tossers.

    Hey the truth hurts, does it not?
     
    #52
  13. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    A funny thing forums. Insecure posters always arrive to spend more time undermining other posters than they do on learning their craft.

    Not sure what the age of some of these posters are but I would hazard a guess that 12 years old would be the mental age of the playground bullies here.

    Tits, jobbie, fart. Just trying to blend in with the juvenile brigade :emoticon-0136-giggl
     
    #53
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  14. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Haha read the earlier post in the thread... and the daily thread on king George day.
     
    #54
  15. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

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    grendel , you seem to shoot first and ask questions later , maybe you should read some of the old cheltenham reviews , if they're still here , plenty of craft inthem from a number on here , as nass says , check his view pre race ....i was / am waiting patiently fan , unfortunately he suffered a mishap on the day , that's racing. ...
     
    #55
  16. Black Caviar

    Black Caviar 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    forget about the non entities grendel, ive had to deal with them myself over the years, your thoughts are appreciated by many on here, and I think you have taken nassau the wrong way, one of the good ones on here
     
    #56
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  17. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I can only go by the way I am treated by other people. If people accuse you of aftertiming it is not very nice.

    Everyone can have a good write up on any given race. It is all about reading a race consistently. I gave three lays in the King George and they all lost. Thistlecrack did OK but only in the sense that four other horses ran miles below their best on the day, whether unlucky or not.

    The difference in Horse Racing is when to know that you were actually a bit fortunate to collect on a winner. Too many punters believe that they can ride their luck for race after race. I always look at it in terms of having picked a horse and then watched it winning for the reasons I thought it would win. If it loses, I want to know if there was a reason for it, or whether I had just misjudged the horse's ability/potential.

    I used to get paid actual cash on another forum for my input, not a fortune but into three figures overall. It came to my attention that the forum were paid by Bookmakers pro rata on members losses. ie They benefit from duff/mug selections. The hint was dropped to me by moderators of that forum that I should not be negative about certain selections made by other forum users. I was against Moon Racer in the Champion Hurdle and got pelters from a certain user and one of the Moderators about it. The Mod said "Not all posts on this forum need a reply" while the member of the forum went on to revel in Faugheen being injured, in the context that it helped his Moon Racer bet. Moon Racer lined up and was pulled up in that Champion Hurdle but I was safely off that forum by then, having told them to push it up their poop chute earlier. Two other Mods on that forum asked me to come back to it but I never did.

    I have strong opinions but they are based on a genuine will to assist others based on my knowledge and the learning I have made from other forum users and mainly from my own mistakes, sometimes very silly mistakes. Horse Racing is a very inexact science. I used to be an analytical chemist and the difference in predictability is vast but I believe in seeing certain things in Horse Racing that you can note for future benefit. You do need luck in backing horses because every now and then you will put flawless logic into it, only for bad luck to intervene, or simply for the horse to run like a bag of ****e for no reason.

    One thing you can be assured of from me is honest opinion. I will not be influenced by Bookmakers money, nor will I claim to "Know" when a horse is laid out for a race. I am a million miles from the TV media that praises every winner and hypes them to the tits. They speak from a Bookies Benefit position. Clan Des Obeaux is the second coming for them but for me he benefitted from the race falling into his lap on the day. He was chased home by a horse who is two years from his previous win. Native River and Politilogue were both in the wrong race, for opposite reasons, while Might Bite was representing a Nicky Henderson who had gone from comparing the horse to Sprinter Sacre, to a rapid reverse in stating that the Gelding needed a personal best to retain his title. Poor media relations in my opinion.

    Anyway, I cannot share the opinion of longer term members. I can only base my feelings on the way members treat me. If people are out to devalue your input and make accusations about being an aftertimer, it hardly fosters good relationships.

    Hey ho, it's a forum. It survived perfectly well without me and it's like falling off a log to stop putting my four Lira worth in. Any forum is only as good as its members and if the overall dynamic leaves some voices unheard then I reckon it's a poor thing for the members as a whole. C'est la vie.
     
    #57
  18. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    The point you fail to mention is that Clan Des Obeaux has obvious points that made him of interest and there was nothing flukey about the way he won. He is a young horse who the yard have always rated highly, and ever since his chase debut he promised to put in a good performance. He did that in the King George and he did so against the views of most.

    However rather than giving the horse the credit, and my original post/daily post on the race, you would rather say it was fortune and or luck.

    I guess that’s the problem here, you want credit and people to read your views but quite clearly you don’t want to do the same with others.

    I don’t have any issue doing either, and I’m more than happy to debate antepost racing markets with anyone, as I’ve shown a few times recently, the antepost markets are dire in short forecast betting and I don’t think there is much point in them unless you know the shape of the race is going to change intrinsically.
     
    #58
    Ron likes this.
  19. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    I recall you tipped Might Bite for some Christmas cheer...

    Anyway why are you still posting? I thought you were leaving the forum ( for a 2nd time) :emoticon-0105-wink:
     
    #59
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2019
  20. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    You cant help some people. You get given some constructive feedback but all you want to do is be rude as you obviously believe yourself to be far superior to the rest of us. If there is a bully round here it is YOU.
     
    #60

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