What an absolute crackerjack of a race this looks likely to be. Politologue and Waiting Patiently are clearly class horses but they are trying 3 miles for the first time which is a negative for me. I've looked back as far as the late 70s and I can't find a winner of this race who had not attempted 3 miles previously. In that 30 odd years all bar a couple had previously won over 3 miles too. For me it has to be Native River @ 7/1.
Some interesting stuff on the King George. I’ve got to take Grendel to task on the stuff he said about thistlecrack. Up until the I’ll fated race with many clouds he looked the most progressive horse on the scene. From going hurdling pretty much swerved novice chasing straight into top company he looked like the gold cup winner after his King George victory and I urge anyone to go back and look at that Cheltenham run again, it was a mighty effort and it bottomed him out those two horses surged up that hill with every sinew and it took its toll and has probably taken two year to recover what with the injury. I was impressed with his Betfair run so for me a good prep. My only concern is the jockey. I remember being at ascot the first time I saw him run and was very taken by him.he won,it was a slog in the mud pouring with rain. Who was riding? Ruby. If I was Colin tizzard I’d be on the blower to ruby Walsh. Tom Scudamore nice guy, but doesn’t really do it for me.id love to see waiting patiently win another horse I’ve taken to who is I understand very fragile but very talented. I’m worried about the step up in trip but wouldn’t be surprised to see it win.
NATIVE RIVER (gold Cup Winner) 7/1 is the e/w bet in this. Beat Might Bite both times they have raced, no horse has EVER won on season debut (Waiting Patiently). Bristol De Mai is a superstar at Haydock but not here. Politologue never won over this far but has a good chance to place. Thistlecrack dose not jump fences well enough to win. The others aint good enough. Convinced yet........7/1 is a big price and might pay for a few rum & cokes boxing day
well,i was making my mind up on the king george,and its a very competitive renewal this time around.i ve been thinking long and hard about it,but came to the final conclusion,that POLITOLOGUE has a very good profile for it.apart from the distance doubt,theres not a lot wrong with him,as hes a very assured jumper,and has more than enough class and ability to deserve his place in this race.so,major shout.
I have changed my mind and from Thistlecrack to NR ew, Gold cup winner at 6s first 4 places will do me.
I really haven't a clue as it is easy to make a case for most of them. Big fan of Might Bite so wouldn't back against him but: (a) if either Coneygree or Thistlecrack have returned to their former ability they could win (b) Waiting Patiently seems more stoutly bred than Might Bight so I wouldn't be concerned about the distance for him (c) BDM showed he can lead them a merry dance on decent ground Wouldn't surprise me if WP ended up fav For an interest it would probably be a minor win bet on MB when the price goes out and a wee ew on Coneygree. I really think if he turns up as good as he was he will win. But that is a very big IF
What a nightmare of a race. If your life depended on picking the winner, you'd be crapping yourself. All good horses, but holey Dooley. Ok the wise heads have said a 3 mile run is a must, and so too is a lead in run. Old timers just don't do it for me, I prefer no older than 8 or 9. Native River has the course and distance record, and a lead in run. 6-1 EW seems pretty fair odds. And a bolter at cricket score odds to run some sort of race. Double Shuffle at 50-1 EW. Hopefully he's come on a little with a bit more age on him.
Seems like there's been enough darts thrown at this race to cover the board...!! I always thought Native River would win at Haydock, so backed him, then watched as BDM took the win away from a gallant NR run. So I've done the same again and backed Native River only this time I've taken the 8's available on BMD as well... As cyc has already pointed out, gun to your head stuff, your a million to pick it and have 100% faith your choice will win... Good luck to all...
This thread shows how unpredictable antepost betting can be. Might Bite went off at the exact same price so backing in advance gave the risk of non runner without the value of bigger odds. However of the others the move on Waiting Patiently was the only real shortening in the market. So was the one for antepost “value”. I still believe that in the most part the on the day punter hasn’t had it this good for a long time. Good markets, decent offers and competitive environment between bookmakers and then the exchange too make it more appealing than short range antepost betting.
How come Grendel has become Ex-Member? Hope there's nothing in the name. If there is I will personally miss him as he has added a lot to the forum, and I'm sure others feel the same. Might Bite was mighty disappointing. He may have had the stuffing knocked out of him at Cheltenham in March
He left Bustino, new his stuff but was a confrontational poster and took everything way to seriously! I find it rather strange that some folk get so worked up and fall out with other posters that they never met before!!This is an online forum not a live debate!
