Super Computer predicts The Championship - it's good news for Leeds United and Derby County The latest prediction on the Sky Bet Championship is in. Leeds United and Derby are set for promotion to the Premier League this season, according to the latest “super computer” prediction. The boffins have crunched the numbers and revealed where they expect every team to finish. The predictions have been made using a sophisticated metric, developed by leading academics at the University of Reading, that analyses historic results for each team as well as things like form, league position and even the day of the week the match is played. This gives an estimated number of goals for both sides in any given fixture, allowing the most likely result and score to be given. Scores were calculated multiple times for every remaining game in the top four English leagues to provide forecast tables. Leeds have a 25% chance of winning the title with the Rams at 20%. Norwich Norwich City have only been given a 15% of winning the title despite currently being in second place. Bristol City have a 23 per cent chance of making the top six and a three per cent of winning the league. It’s bad news for Ipswich Town at the other end of the table. The Tractor Boys have a 76% chance of heading down to League One next season. Bolton Wanderers, meanwhile have a 53% chance of going down while for Hull City it’s 31%, for Brentford it’s 24%, as it is for Reading. Dr James Reade, associate professor in the department of economics at the University of Reading, said: “As the saying goes, if you’re bottom at Christmas then you’re doomed, and these predictions sadly back that up. “However, they offer plenty of hope for other teams in relegation battles, as the forecasts show many currently languishing near the bottom of the table may pull off miracle escapes.” Dr Carl Singleton, Lecturer in Economics at the University of Reading, said: “As we head into the packed festive programme of football, these forecasts show that the fight for promotion is far from over. The title race in the Premier League and League 2 look set to go down to the wire, with the teams currently top predicted to have the trophy snatched from their grasp come May.” You can keep up with the latest predictions by following the Scorecasting Economists on Facebook or Twitter at @SEconomists. View the final table forecasts here [Chance of winning Championship] Club // Chance Leeds United // 25% Derby County // 20% Norwich // 15% Nottingham Forest // 9% West Brom // 7% Swansea // 5% Stoke // 3% Birmingham // 3% Bristol City // 3% Middlesbrough // 3% Sheffield United // 2% Blackburn // 1% Preston // 1% QPR // 1% [Chance top two Championship] Club // Chance Leeds // 43% Derby County // 36% Norwich // 32% Nottingham Forest // 16% West Brom // 16% Swansea // 11% Birmingham // 8% Middlesbrough // 8% Aston Villa // 7% Stoke // 6% Bristol City // 5% Blackburn // 4% Preston // 3% Sheffield United // 3% QPR // 1% Wigan //1% [Top six] Club // Chance Leeds // 80% Derby // 75% Norwich // 72% Nottingham Forest // 51% West Brom // 50% Swansea // 38% Middlesbrough // 36% Aston Villa // 33% Birmingham // 33% Stoke // 27% Bristol City // 23% Blackburn // 20% Sheffield United // 19% Preston // 17% QPR // 11% Wigan // 7% Sheffield Wednesday // 2% Millwall 2% Rotherham // 1% [Relegation] Club // Chance Ipswich // 76% Bolton // 53% Hull // 31% Millwall // 26% Rotherham // 25% Brentford // 24% Reading // 24% Sheffield Wednesday // 22% Wigan // 6% QPR // 4% Sheffield United // 2% Preston // 2% Blackburn // 1% Bristol City // 1% Birmingham // 1% Stoke // 1% https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport...er-computer-predicts-championship-its-2355853
3% chance of winning the league, 5% chance of top two position, 23% of a top six finish and a 1% chance of relegation, jgf2 couldn't of put it much better..
Are there people actually being paid to come up with this statistical nonsense and, if so, how do I apply. My cynicism is well known but someone should check their predictions at season's end to see if there is any value in these sort of things. The table is all that counts really.
An away point at Derby is always a good thing and all we need to do now is to start making Ashton Gate a fortress. We need to stay around this league position until mid January and then hopefully some of our new recruits can help take us higher.
I don't know why they call it a super computer, just looking at the table you can see the likelihood.... my figures for 3rd to 6th is 11% top 2 is 4.35% relegation is about the same rounded up to nearest whole number of 1 based on figures available 10 mins ago
further investigation leads to a prediction that the top 4 season end will be sorted by end of game 32 ....... based on historical results over 11 years. there is like 7 teams with a chance of making final 2 positions top 2 current seemingly in the top 4 end of.....
