It's a little while away yet but it's best to be prepared and have a look for any potential value in betting early. Might Bite is the reigning champ and unsurprisingly is favourite to notch up a double this time. There is quite a strong trend for horses to come back the following season and land the race again. Pendil 1972/73, Captain Christy 1974/75, Silver Buck 1979/80, Wayward Lad 1982/83, Desert Orchid 1988/89, The Fellow 1991/92, One Man 1995/96, Kicking King 2004/05, Kauto Star 2006/07 and 2008/09, and Silviniaco Conti 2013/14. Of course some did more than two in a row and Kauto Star did the double-double in winning four in a row but it is a strong trend of at least two wins in row, which makes the previous season's winner the first place to start when thinking about a wager. Last year's King George does not look strong form though. Double Shuffle and Tea For Two were 50/1 and 20/1 in second and third places, while neither has won since in a generally disappointing form picture for the contest. It also has to be observed that Might Bite did not exactly blow them away in winning it. The Henderson chaser put in a solid effort in the Gold Cup, looking to travel best until stamina seemed to run out and he could not go with Native River in the closing stages. It is Might Bite's Betfair Chase effort that concerns me, he never jumped with his usual zest and dropped away disappointingly. The trainer seemed to feel that the horse was intimidated by the firm cores of the fences at Haydock and that he never attacked them in his normal manner. Nicky Henderson declared that everything will be fine at Kempton but it's the sort of scenario where you would like to watch how he jumped the first couple of fences before placing a serious bet. Native River ran much better than Might Bite in the Betfair Chase. He looked the one most likely to benefit from having a run and he put in a sound effort behind the course specialist Bristol De Mai. The reigning Gold Cup Champion looks sure to take a bit of beating at Cheltenham in March if there is cut in the ground but is 3 Miles at Kempton his best gig? A former Welsh National winner, Native River looked a horse who could win a Grand National one day and if I were training him the focus would be very much on having him primed to become a double Gold Cup winner. If it were heavy on Boxing Day, his stamina would be an asset but otherwise he may be facing opponents who suit the race slightly better. Waiting Patiently came on the scene when reasonably readily accounting for Cue Card in the Ascot Chase in February. I was a bit concerned that he beat a Cue Card very much on the wane and although Frodon has won a couple of times since that race, the other horse with wins since the Ascot contest, Traffic Fluide, has been landing lower grade events. Some eagle-eyed viewers noted that Waiting Patiently seemed to move strangely in the closing stages of his Ascot Chase win, and while there was always some doubt about him going to the Cheltenham Festival anyway, he was on target for Aintree, until a setback meant that he missed that Festival as well. Trainer Ruth Jefferson describes Waiting Patiently as "Absolutely bouncing" ahead of his return but it was also revealed that the same injury that led to him bypassing Aintree has also kept him off the track until now. I am sure the ideal plan would have been to have a prep race before potentially tackling the Gold Cup 1-2 and Betfair Chase King Bristol De Mai. The other worry is that 2M 5F is as far as he has raced at so far and others will be keen to make sure stamina is tested for their horses benefit. That leaves a question mark on Waiting Patiently as 6/1 second favourite for the race, given the points that need to be proved. Politologue is a likeable grey with a good 10/18 career strike rate. I always had lingering doubts if he was quite top class but I decided he was worth a go in the 2017 JLT at pretty nice odds because I thought Yorkhill was poor value. Of course Yorkhill won it, even if he would pretty much stink the place out thereafter, but I was disappointed with the Nicholls chaser that day, as I felt he was better than he showed. Politologue is much improved since his JLT effort and is rated 16 lbs higher than he was then. Still only 7 years old his career path has deviated since the spell he had trying 2 miles after his JLT run. Upped back in trip he beat Min narrowly in the Melling Chase at Aintree and then won again over 2 and a half miles plus on his seasonal reappearance from Charbel. For me, there is a nagging suspicion that Politologue is half a stone short of the class required here and he also has to prove he stays the three miles. Those considerations make me want to pass at the odds of 7/1. Thistlecrack is a former winner of this race but I felt he beat a poor field that year. Silviniaco Conti was pretty much finished as a top chaser and Cue Card also seemed to be on the wane. Thistlecrack had not really convinced as a chaser coming into that King George and for me he never reached the heights he had done over hurdles. Not a bad run last time out behind Bristol De Mai but his effort petered out somewhat there and he benefited from a poor run by Might Bite and got close to Native River when his stablemate seemed to need the race. Thistlecrack has not won for what will be two years when he lines up and I always felt his defeat behind Many Clouds was given more status because of the Grand National winner's fatality after the race. The former Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle Champion just doesn't have the same profile over fences and he seems a more fragile horse nowadays. I reckon he's poor value at 7/1. Bristol De Mai has looked top class on occasions but those performances have come at his beloved Haydock. He received some crazy ratings for thrashing Cue Card on bad ground in the Betfair Chase and then had ulcers cited as a reason for some of his lesser efforts at other tracks. It is hard to get away from the fact that he is 4/4 at Haydock, yet 0/3 at Cheltenham and his one run at Kempton was a thumping defeat behind Might Bite in last year's King George. Prior to the recent Betfair Chase, Bristol De Mai had been 0/2 against Might Bite and he also finished behind Native River when narrow favourite in a three runner renewal of the Denman Chase at Newbury. Bristol De Mai was dismissed pretty comfortably by Native River when they clashed away from Haydock and it's easy enough to see the form reversed at Kempton, even allowing for the fact that Native River's sole run at the track was a shade disappointing behind Tea For Two. Native River was only 5YO then and rated 153, whereas he is now rated 176 and has a growing line of consistent form. I don't see Bristol De Mai as value at 7/1 given that his ratings away from Haydock are consistently lower than his strong form at his favourite track. Presenting Percy is a possible for this race but he needs to be supplemented. The Gold Cup favourite has his best form on soft and heavy ground and I noticed the trainer calling for rain before the John Durkan race, so I invested in Min for that contest instead. Presenting Percy did swerve the John Durkan and I am against the idea of him being too well suited by the King George test. The trainer's last winner was in August and his runners since have been woeful in the main. This just looks a tough race to kick off a season in and he's a pass for me here. Altior is quoted across the board but his 16/1 odds tell the story about how likely he is to actually show. William Hill go 8/1 but that looks bad value given than Nicky Henderson has said that he is much more likely to tackle the race next year. Stepping Altior up to 3 miles now looks as sure a way of ending his unbeaten sequence over fences as anything is and I doubt we will see him here. Outside of those mentioned so far I see it hard to visualise an outsider popping up this season. I reckon Thistlecrack is the poorest value here at 7/1, given his two year drought. Waiting Patiently does not look the right price to me at a general 5/1. With the strong trend of back to back winners, I am giving Might Bite the chance to put his poor Betfair effort behind him. If he jumps more confidently he can become the latest horse to back up the win from the previous season. Native River will have a chance if he turns up on testing ground but the memory of Might Bite travelling better before the closing stages of the Gold Cup lingers in the mind and Nicky Henderson feels Might Bite is a talented chaser. Waiting Patiently is the sexy horse stepping up in trip but this is going to be tougher than facing Cue Card and he does not tick enough boxes to warrant his odds in my opinion. Might Bite 3/1 seems to be the bet to me and those are double the odds he won the race at last season. It seems likely that some of the current contenders will miss the race, as these "dream" line ups never seem to transpire. Might Bite 3/1 for some Christmas Cheer. I would want to lay Thistlecrack, Bristol De Mai and Politologue at 7/1.
Might Bite for me. Can't go against him at Kempton. He is a classy chaser and Kempton is the ideal track for a classy chaser. If Presenting Percy or Altior turned up I wouldn't be so confident. Altior might not be ready for a stiff 3 mile yet but at Kempton he would be a threat for me.
Very good write up, and agree with most of it too. Funnily enough for me the King George this year revolves around pace, and the big unknown is whether they run Coneygree in the race. If they do, I think we are looking at a pace bias, with BDM and Coneygree both going hard from the front with Native River and Might Bite also racing prominently. If this happens I’d say that the 3/1 on Might Bite wouldn’t look too good, as I don’t think he is the strongest stayer and I don’t think he will be able to push BDM (and Coneygree) aside as easily he did last season. That would play into the hands of the stayers and/or those ridden patiently. As such I’d see Native River as being the most likely winner (I don’t buy the flat track talk - all about how hard they go and whether he needs a change of gear) with Waiting Patiently being the other intriguing alternative. However you’d also have to factor in Thistlecrack and I’d also add in Clan Des Obeaux who I think is grossly underrated and to me looks a perfect horse for this race. After all of that, would I say the market has any value currently? Well, I think more than 8 will turn up on the day, so the EW terms don’t interest me, and I think the market is about right. If the big guns all take part (Altior/PP apart) then I can’t see Might Bite being much shorter than 5/2, so the 3s at the minute doesn’t appeal. I think we’d see BDM shorten and also Native River whilst Waiting Patiently will either go really short or drift out to 8s or so. Thistlecrack and Politilogue surely will lengthen, their current prices are odd.
Waiting Patiently will, I'm sure, only run if the going is easy. Being a strong traveller with a turn of foot the race looks tailor made for him BUT his price is scandalous on seasonal debut. I think BDM will run a better race this time around - I agree with Matt Chapman, the wind op seems to have brought him forward again and I think he will be a real player on Boxing Day, despite the race not being at Haydock. I would have liked to have seen a stronger Irish challenge this year - they can't all run in the Lexus surely? Disko could be interesting at 33/1 - Noel Meade gave an upbeat report on his progress at the end of October and I think Kempton could really suit him Big ask on his return from injury but could hold place claims. Willie Mullins doesn't send a runner over - still having nightmares about Vautour's defeat?
I have a sleep disorder and am having trouble sleeping ahead of a heart procedure on Wednesday to unblock a major artery. Hopefully I'll be working normal hours next week.
Im going with Thistlecrack, ran a great race when he wo the KG and i seen glimmers of a revival in his last run, with better jumping, those Haydock fences beat him imo, he will go close so a good ew on him for me. All the best Grendel.
Pretty much given up punting however might have a wee interest in Politologue; I would trust Mr Nicholls that three miles is within the horse's compass. I am not a great supporter of the contention that three miles at Kempton Park is so much easier to 'get' as three miles at many other Grade 1 tracks.
I have only been to Kempton Park on Boxing Day once; it was after a Christmas visit to Munich with my Mum. It twas in the pre Easyjet and Germanwings days so we stopped off at Heathrow and stayed in a local hotel for a couple of nights. We got some great advice about taxis to and from the track from a Scottish lady who worked at the hotel. It was the year 'The Fellow' (my favourite steeplechaser along with Bachelor's Hall) won so I had a substantial bet, albeit at a short price, on him. I also had substantial sums from ante-post punts riding on his back. From memory Kempton was mobbed and drinks/eats were difficult to fit in between races. However, the kindness shown to my Mum by the hotel staff more than made up for this drawback; we spent two great evenings in their company until late at night in the hotel bar!
You would think Nicholls would know but it seems strange that it's taken him this long to bring the horse to the trip. After the JLT they dropped him to 2 miles and he cut no ice behind Altior (Not that many can) In general Paul Nicholls does not have the talent level in the yard that was once a hallmark of his operation. Just seems to me that Native River is much better value at the same odds.
A couple of horses to add in to the mix that have not really been mentioned: Top Notch- have not heard what the trainer plans with this fellow but he has an entry and was last seen winning over 2 miles 6 at Sandown. Might enter calculations.. Outlander - has been mentioned for this race before and generally doesnt make the journey and guessing he won't again but could be interesting. Double Shuffle - no one has mentioned this fellow who finished runner up last season a length behind might bite. His 3 visits to Kempton read 112. Not bad and clearly likes the course. As does Tea for Two - finished 3rd last year and 4th season before that in this race in a bunch finish. Previous winner at the course too..especially in the Kauto novice event. I thought his comeback run was very pleasing. Had a wind op too and he is a totally different animal round Kempton. Second run back after a wind op at his favourite course could be the right time to catch him. I will be having a flutter on him each way although not ante post. I expect Might Bite to prevail but I think Tea for Two is a fantastic each way play and will be so on the day I m sure..
At the moment there's two for me and they are Tea For Two 40/1 and Coneygree 33/1 both ew. I thought Thistlecrack ran really well last time out but his jumping definitely cost him and if he was a slightly bigger price for this I might be tempted but 7/1 is just a bit too short to offer any ew value and definitely not confident enough in him to risk win only.
The final field of 11 then: Might Bite Waiting Patiently Native River Thistlecrack Bristol de Mai Politologue Clan Des Obeaux Coneygree Shattered Love Double Shuffle Tea for Two If no defections before race Time what a stellar line up with all the main protagonists taking each other on again. Shattered Love is an interesting entry..not heard much about her for this race but wow it looks potentially very exciting!
That looks pretty tasty Pops. Couldn't really expect to see PP and Altior but still a good race and it's not easy to write off any of them.
