Gets word but drifts from 4/1 to 12/1 before the off
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Daily Racing Thread Thursday 13th. Dec. 2018
- Thread starter attivo
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How can it be aftertiming. The horse is bigger odds now than he was then and it's an obvious fact that I have been against Laurina all along.
I was first here to report she would miss her previous entry and I strongly advised Buveur D'air at 5/2 for the Champion Hurdle.
I will be counting my cash on that bet when others are pissing about chasing dross at Ffos Las.
I am one of the earliest players in Ante-Post markets. Usually on long before the Racing Media ante-post experts and miles ahead of Pricewise who does his Flat Classic Guide on Good Friday. My bets are on six months before that.
Carry on punting the dross. Bookies love it.
I was first here to report she would miss her previous entry and I strongly advised Buveur D'air at 5/2 for the Champion Hurdle.
I will be counting my cash on that bet when others are pissing about chasing dross at Ffos Las.
I am one of the earliest players in Ante-Post markets. Usually on long before the Racing Media ante-post experts and miles ahead of Pricewise who does his Flat Classic Guide on Good Friday. My bets are on six months before that.
Carry on punting the dross. Bookies love it.
And your point is?
I don't wait for trainers words. I use my own eyes. Most of the media commentary is bull plop. That is why bookies love media hype.
I give my own opinions, based on my own observations and experience.
Unlike many authors on Racing Forums, I have no contacts in stables and I never hear "Whispers", I just post what I think might be a bit of value.
Examine your own contributions before criticising others is always my advice.
Whilst respecting what you say I don’t see the need to disrespect “chasing dross at Ffos Las”. A 6/1 winner there pays the same as a 6/1 winner at Cheltenham. Added bonuses are that I can have my money immediately rather than wait 6 months and if it doesn’t run I won’t have spunked my dough without even getting a run.
Each to their own.
There is a chance Call Me Lord does not go but I think Nicky Henderson has a poor hand with Brain Power and We Have A Dream.
Since a good weight carrying performance earlier in his career, Brain Power has looked one of the biggest Cuddys in the game. He can't jump and he was woeful in his Champion Hurdle attempt. I did We Have A Dream ante-post for the Triumph Hurdle but he didn't run in it. I got my money back in the Doom Bar at Aintree but he has not impressed me this season, with defeat behind stablemate Verdana Blue and then a bit underwhelming against fairly exposed older types next time. It's something of a crisis point for We Have A Dream now in terms of which way his season goes forward now. Brain Power just seems a bookies benefit horse to me and I could not back either of those.
Since a good weight carrying performance earlier in his career, Brain Power has looked one of the biggest Cuddys in the game. He can't jump and he was woeful in his Champion Hurdle attempt. I did We Have A Dream ante-post for the Triumph Hurdle but he didn't run in it. I got my money back in the Doom Bar at Aintree but he has not impressed me this season, with defeat behind stablemate Verdana Blue and then a bit underwhelming against fairly exposed older types next time. It's something of a crisis point for We Have A Dream now in terms of which way his season goes forward now. Brain Power just seems a bookies benefit horse to me and I could not back either of those.
I am just posting my own opinions here. If people want to bet day in day out on low quality racing then that is their business. If they are making a profit then more power to them
I posted my view today and got accused of aftertiming. It doesn't make a lick of sense. My horse is not an assured runner and he is bigger than the odds he was. What kind of aftertiming is that?
People should look at themselves before broaching a lack of respect.
I don't fret the non-runners in ante-post play. 90% of the time it won't win, run or not, anyway. Cheltenham is about 3 months away and I would rather wait that and be on a true 1/2 shot at 5/2 and 7/2, than risk a horse at those odds on a given day, knowing that they are actually odds-on to lose.
It's my own opinion that most punters play too many times. You should be selective and play when you think the odds are correct. Too many people I knew would go into a bookies planning to play just a couple of studied selection but lose on those and end up chasing on horses whose races and form they had not studied.
I have a simple attitude on forums, don't rattle my cage and I will remain silent. If people are making illogical and unfair remarks, I think it is fair game to challenge those comments.
As you say, each to their own. The trouble is that some people seem to need to try to devalue other peoples input with cheap and catty innuendo.
Keep comments objective and realistic is my aim. All I am looking for is the same in return.
Why so defensive. Nobody is questioning YOUR input. I was only posting my thoughts and got shot down as an aftertimer.
It would be great, if the detractors could post their own thoughts on a race, rather than point fingers at other people.
As I said in my original post Call Me Lord's best run came over 2M 5F and perhaps the staying races is where he goes. I just felt Nicky's other entries made little appeal and despite Summerville Boy being a "Trendy" Champion Hurdle tip, I suspect Buveur D'aor will bury him at Cheltenham in March.
What annoyed me was the fact you popped on to state you’d made a bet prior to an announcement. This is exactly the same as the one the other week. Only difference is that this one doesn’t look likely to be a runner and has drifted rather than shortened.
So given you bet six months in advance, any other antepost bets to flag up?
You read too much into that comment. My point is that it is what I understand without having any inside knowledge. Sorry for the confusion.
I agree with many of your points on the previous post. I for one bet far too often but it’s a game to me and whilst I do take it seriously I am NOT looking to make money out of it.
I retired in February and put an amount (not huge) in what I call my gambling account. I bet most days. There is twice as much money in that account than when I retired. When it’s gone I will stop and I am sure that some day it will be gone but not for a while yet.
And for the record, given the field is likely to shorten to 8 or so, I’d be with Silver Streak currently. He has 2 lengths on Old Guard and did so despite the blunder at the first. He looks solid and not sure how many of those rated higher in the handicap can run to anything near their marks.
I have Too Darn Hot at 50/1 for the Derby, Quorto at 25/1 for the Derby and Persian King at 40/1 for the Derby.
In the 2000 Guineas I have Calyx at 25/1, Quorto at 14/1 as a partial saver, Persian King at 25/1 and Too Darn Hot at 6/1 as a saver.
In the 1000 Guineas I have Just Wonderful at 25/1, So Perfect at 25/1 and Skitter Scatter at 16/1.
I haven't bet the Oaks as I have yet to see a real staying prospect in the fillies.
I did Ten Sovereigns at 16/1 for the Commonwealth Cup.
These bets are not on this site but are dotted about on another forum. The links are available on request.
To be honest, I have little concern about other people having a problem with my input. Ignore is an option for anyone. Tough luck is a fair riposte in the circumstances also.
I will give a horse now and I hope it is in advance enough to not be aftertiming.
2019 St Leger CONSTANTINOPLE 33/1
Trained by Leger King Aidan O Brien, the son of Galileo made only a fair debut behind the well regarded Madhmoon in August at Leopardstown. He stepped up on that with a 3rd behind Kick On in a Newmarket maiden next time out when third to the Gosden pair Kick On and Humanitarian. He lacked a bit of toe that day but given an easier task at Thurles next time he destroyed his field to come right away to win by 10 lengths and 6 lengths from 2nd and 3rd. That was not a good race but the ground was fast enough and normally it is soft to heavy when horses spreadeagle their field on the Flat.
Constantinople still appeared a shade green in his win and he has good physical scope for improvement in 2019. I am basing my hope on his Newmarket 3rd place because six winners came from that contest. John Gosden's Humanitarian is in the Leger betting after dotting up next time, while Kick On was considered worthy of a place in the Group 1 race that used to be the Racing Post Trophy.
I feel Constantinople can reverse form with the Gosden pair given his breeding and trainer. His dam has solely been bred with Galieo thus far and there seems ample stamina in her progeny. The most notable relation of Constantinople is full Brother Bondi Beach, who upset Order Of St George over 1 Mile 6F before being runner up Storm The Stars in the Voltigeur and then briefly landing the St Leger on the disqualification of Simple Verse before she got the race back on appeal.
Being a full Brother to Bondi Beach and given his achievements so far makes me believe that Constantinople can develop into a decent Leger contender. Although not at the level Kew Gardens achieved at 2YO his ability to stretch away on fastish ground leaves me drawing a visual similarity.
Of course it's a long way off but I relish the challenge of an early selection and when talking 33/1 odds it's a fun punt with little expectation. It's all relative though and does anyone really want to back Too Darn Hot as 14/1 Fav for the St Leger.
I am going for Constantinople as a dark horse for an early bet because I think his profile promises potential. If people find that upsetting advice I am at a bit of a loss to see the problem. It's just a place for opinions to me.
There is always hope with unexposed horses but for me Summerville Boy has all his form on soft/heavy. He got his ground last time against Buveur D'air but was beaten a long way. Buveur D'air was more impressive than I had expected that day and the Racing Post, Timeform and the official handicapper all gave the Henderson horse personal best ratings for his win.
For now Buveur D'air is rated 172 and Summerville Boy 156 by the official handicapper, so a good lot of improvement will be necessary.