Off Topic UK / EU Future

Completely immaterial, we are talking about manifesto stances on Brexit. When arch remainers like Jo Johnson resign and call the deal 'a catastrophe for the country' it obviously has terminal flaws.

 

Thank you Toby for sharing that detailed list of realpolitik outcomes. I agree with all of the analysis. I am really worried for the future of my grandchildren if we actually leave. The current terms might well be the best on offer. The EU is NOT bullying - it is just adopting the stance that preserves its identity.
I would add one more thing.The peace which Europe has enjoyed since 1945 is due to the willingness of separate nations with separate cultures and identities to work together in ways that are peaceful, meaningful, and are beneficial to most people most of the time. Why we think in the UK we can do better is chutzpah. Or arrogance. Or both. People can point to Greece as an example of EU bullying. However, Greece CHOSE to join the Euro - the cause of their economic difficulties. However painful the medicine, nevertheless the EU committed itself to keeping Greece going, (when all the economic evidence was that they should have been cut adrift). And here's the interesting thing. The Greeks STILL want to be part of the EU. ( An interesting lecture from Vicky Pryce on the subject of her homeland revealed a few surprising things - including that one).
The only explanation I can find for people who actually consider the circumstances and still wish to leave are that they are zealots.Thus no amount of reasoned (or unreasoned) argument will persuade them that white is white. They want to believe white is black, so they do. I have yet to see one analysis that shows how we will be better off IN ANY WAY AT ALL by leaving the EU. Over the rainbow is more credible.
The astonishing thing is that some of them were elected to our Parliament, presumably on the basis that they could be trusted to think and act in our interest. Well that theory has been blown apart by the antics of the last 18 months.
Finally, and this is the one thing that DOES make the UK a special case is The Good Friday Agreement. Once the govt decided it had to stand by it - which is the very least the people of NI deserve - then leaving the EU involved 3 mutually exclusive conditions to be met. We had a lecture the other day from Lord Ricketts, lately HM ambassador to France, and the first National Security Adviser. He destroyed the whole Brexit rationale in 15 seconds! No wonder it's been such a mess. (And, ironically, it's the Conservatives who profess to hold the Union so dear as in their association with Unionists - have committed themselves to this impasse.)

I regret my intended pithy response to the superb article posted by Toby has gone on too long. But it just matters SO MUCH.

 

Not is it for me to comment on your failure to leave the EU. Some things I noticed this week.

Theresa May said,
- When you strip away the detail, the choice before us is clear, this deal … Or leave with no deal, or no Brexit at all.
The UK will remain?

Is it true that Scottish fishermen are angry with the deal as their waters will be invaded by Spanish, French and Portuguese boats, just the same as if Scotland were independant of the UK and joined the EU.

The last thing if Spain is starting to make one problem with the Gibraltar border will Morocco ask for Ceuta and Melilla to be returned?

 

According to a study by Cambridge University and YouGov on the prevalence, and belief in, conspiracy theories - asked if people believed ''Muslim immigration to this country is part of a bigger plan to make Muslims a majority of this country's population'', 31% of Brexit voters believed it, compared to 6% of remainers. Almost half leave voters (47%) believed the government was deliberately 'hiding the truth' about how many immigrants live in the country, compared to 14% of remain voters. Figures also showed that 'leave' voters were 6 times more likely to believe climate change is a hoax than amongst remainers. Actually they found that up to 60% of Britons may believe in one conspiracy theory or another. This of course leads to a reaction against perceived elites such as the government, or the EU. As if either of these organizations had an interest in the Islamification of the UK ! Unfortunately throwing referendums at populations which believe such things is lunacy - which is why the German constitution doesn't allow referendums - ie. they don't trust the Germans. In such a situation the man who gets his info down the pub has an equal vote with the professor of politics - and the titbits thrown out by the Express complete the picture of abject ignorance. This is why I am dubious about the idea of a second referendum - if the majority were gullible enough to believe in the lies of 2 years ago, then they will believe in any new lies thrown around now. Referendums need to be based on populations which are used to taking an active part in politics, and are informed about the choices facing them - otherwise they can quickly turn into a simple protest vote against the 'World in general'.

 

Maybe Boris's water cannons did end up in France. Tear gas and water cannons are currently being used in Paris against the protestors. They are claiming the French government is completely out of touch with ordinary people so this is a people's revolt.

Police fire tear gas at Paris protesters

 

Again you try to come back to the theme of France as a form of distraction - is it impossible for you to stick to the theme at hand without this ? You will find that police tactics at demonstrations in other European countries tend to be more robust than what occurs in the UK. The use of water cannon is relatively common, and tear gas was used at demonstrations against the redevelopment of Stuttgart's main railway station recently - was this a sign of Germany's imminent collapse ? I have to say that I have no sympathy with people who are prepared to go to such lengths to demonstrate against the price of Diesel - let the prices rise, we need fewer cars on the roads ! It is also logical that raising taxes on Diesel can be a morally good way of funding alternative energy projects - Macron is right on this.

 

There is more going on than Brexit. The UK needs to clearly see the numerous faults and problems raging in other EU countries and why the decision to leave the EU was correct and not before time.

 

How can a rise of the tax on Diesel in one country, and the disproportional reaction to it by some Frenchmen, be seen as an inherant fault of the EU ?

 

So Boris goes to the DUP and tells them what they want to hear, that the deal that the PM has agreed will leave the country as a satellite of the EU. He then goes on to tell the DUP that they should continue to support the government, because if they don't it could lead to a general election, which of course Labour could win. That seems to be looking in opposite directions at the same time.
Arlene Foster then says that a Corbyn led government could be better than what is on offer. Well Labour do say that the whole country should stay in both the CU and SM. That would get round the border issue , so you can see where the DUP are coming from. The PM said we would leave both the CU and the SM, but with her red lines fading to a very pale pink, she has agreed a CU called by a different name, but not the SM. Failed on immigration at the Home Office, so comes back for a second try?
So just what will happen? Will the DUP continue to prop up the minority government. If they do they will be going against what they have been telling their membership today. Would they take the chance on a GE? Just how deep does their opposition go to the deal? Boris meanwhile, despite all the huff and puff, seems more inclined to keep his seat than take the chance of sitting on the backbenches with the opposition. He can see that until the deal is thrown out in parliament, he and his cronies can do little more than make speeches.

 

Just what is the point of the PM writing her open letter to the public? I cannot see it starting off a chain reaction of the public writing to their MPs. So what is it about? Is she trying to get the public on her side if the MPs vote her deal down? Not much point in that unless you ask the public to have a genuine say. So how is she going to do that? We know that she doesn't change her mind, so a general election or second referendum are not on the agenda, unless of course she gets heavily defeated in Westminster, and feels that she will have to take the chance or resign. I suspect that she would take the chance rather than leave No.10 of her own choosing. All round though I find the open letter the strangest thing yet to leave her thinking.

 

What on earth is this whirlwind tour of the UK about? After her last experience of that when she decided to call a GE, it would appear to be the least favourable thing she could do. Will she be listening to the public, or giving them a lecture? Maybe she will not actually meet any real people, just the Tory staff that bus around with her.
Rees Mogg finally admits that with his no deal there would be problems at Dover. I think that he has been a little economical with the truth up until now.

 

Of course there would be problems at Dover, the French would make sure of that especially when trying to add pressure to encroach on our fishing areas.

 

I think that you are finally entering the world of harsh reality. Not just France, but every country will be looking after their own interests. You were quite happy to tell us that companies such as BMW would come to the rescue, which they haven't of course. So now that your government has talked themselves into a corner, what do you suggest they do next?

 

Once parliament has rejected this remainer / weedy civil servant hopeless deal a Brexiteer should be allowed to negotiate a proper Brexit with the ransom only paid once a sensible trade deal is agreed. The desperately unpopular Macron has to try something to bolster his flagging fortunes, he is banking on bashing the Brits a little.

 

You haven't been keeping up. If this deal is rejected, the government has until the 1st January to come up with something else. Do you really think that your PM will say that she is giving up and will call an election? Your solution is just wishful thinking. As I said every country will see what a desperately weak position the UK is in and will use that to make sure they get a trade deal that suits them. This applies to countries everywhere, not just in the EU.

 

There is no time left for further negotiations SH, which you well know. The only way that the EU. would extend the March deadline is in the event of either a general election or a second referendum. You do not have the time for a dirty Tory leadership battle on top of everything else, apart from which you do not have the numbers to place a Brexiteer at the head of the party.

 

The government will have to get a revised deal which the EU have already rejected. The only viable option is to leave without this bad deal. This will reset and allow for proper negotiations. I'm afraid we are paying the price for letting a weak remainer and even weaker civil servants take over the negotiations. The PM might say she is resigning but little chance of an election.

 

Only time for a no deal now.

 

Which is what you have wanted all along. Fortunately you neither have a majority for this in Parliament or amongst the population.

 

No, I would have preferred a good deal. The only chance we have now is to leave without a deal, take the temporary disruption then hopefully the EU will stop the bullying tactics. They really should be concentrating on their many other problems, such as Italy and the far right in many member states.