I agree with that but just make two observations. 1 Their is an air of refusal to accept reality in all this by the arch Brexiteers. They know what the 20/21 of them plus the 4 or 5 that Stan mentioned who have not even had the courage to put themselves forward. Their fatal flaw is that whoever does the negotiating for UK will never please them because what they want is unachievable. 2 What they really want is a puppet whose strings they can pull, not a leader.
It may be the only hope the centre have of avoiding an election, the sane Labour MPs know that Momentum has them in their crosshairs, it might be their chance to actually win the middle-ground. As you say though, I doubt they have the balls... You make it sound like it's Utopia, the Germans are so divided that Merkel is a busted flush, the French are sick of Macron whose popularity has plummetted and several Mediterranean countries are financially on the brink. With or without us it's only a metter of time before it collapses, why do you think they're so desperate to tie us in forever?...
Well they can't form a government, can they? A voting coalition, maybe. Let them form a new party and stand in a General Election.
Here you go Ellers, straight from the horses mouth as you like it... PSNI are 'not overplaying Brexit border threat' - BBC News https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46180190 Mr Hamilton said that dissident republicans who are opposed to the peace process would try to "exploit" any hardening of the border - both "politically and ideologically" and through engaging in organised crime, such as smuggling. He also said the PSNI (Police Service of Northern Ireland) were mindful of the possibility there could be protests by loyalists if they felt any deal or no-deal created "a perception of insecurity and uncertainty of unionism's position within the UK".
The EU will negotiate because if they don't, there is a real risk of the UK leaving without a deal, and that would be prejudicial to EU commerce and economies particularly Ireland. No one wants a no deal if it can be avoided by bringing sense to the situation. If I was an MP in Westminster, I could not think of endorsing a deal that could bind Parliament's hands in the future. It doesn't matter how many times May says it probably won't happen - we all know **** does happen (bearing in mind there are those in Brussels who don't want the UK to come out of these negotiations well, to deter other states from leaving the EU), and then the nation would turn on those MP's that brought this in. It's essentially negligence on their part. Would you honestly agree to these terms of you were an MP, Stan? Corbyn and Sturgeon can only do damage if they are in power, and the Tories aren't going to agree to another general election. We've just had one. I don't see the People's vote taking off either. The Tories realise the damage this would do to the country - and closer to home, to their party since UKIP would be the biggest winners.
Noted, but remember it's not just the ERG that is opposing this draft deal. It seems to be most of Parliament. With some improvement, I think that most of the ERG would fall behind May. It would give them certainty that Brexit takes place - effectively a stepping stone to a clean Brexit in some years time. This current draft deal could preclude a clean Brexit from ever taking place against a declining EU.
On your first point, I have just read that several EU countries aren’t happy with what Barnier negotiated - France, Portugal, Denmark, Netherlands all want guaranteed fishing access and Germany and Ireland are concerned that allowing a backstop including UK in the Customs Union without following EU social and environmental standards would give us an unfair competitive advantage, allowing us to undercut them. So you could be right, more negotiations to come. But not to improve things from the Brexiters perspective. On your second point, Liam Fox to my amazement, actually said something relevant yesterday ‘it’s not about what we [Brexit politicians] want, it’s about what is in the best interests of the country’. In my world what is best for the country is about what is best for the security, prosperity and future of the people who live in it. I realise I am in a minority on this but I really don’t care about sovereignty, independence, control all these principles which I think only exist in a very shallow form in a globalised free market economy. Parliament’s hands are bound in a multitude of ways anyway, by reality. And I believe that staying as close as possible to the EU is best for security, prosperity etc. I might be wrong, but that’s what I believe. We have to leave the EU, that I accept, and we have negotiated ourselves into a stupid hole, certainly a poor place to start discussions on the real issues, but I would have to be strongly convinced that there are better alternatives actually available, rather than available in Rees Moggs fevered brain, to push us even further away from a final agreement by kicking this one in the head and increasing the chances of a no deal which I believe will be a genuine self inflicted disaster. Now, I don’t know, and neither does anyone else on this board, if a serious renegotiation is possible at this stage. But I would be renegotiating on the basis of a Norway agreement as the backstop, which would not be ‘better’ for those concerned with sovereignty etc.
At last somebody sees the light, the Customs Union is what the original EEC was all about, just that,a simple customs union allowing free trade between member states, but the EEC idea was hijacked and a monster was created if It had just been left alone as a trade agreement instead of the unelected power mad establishment it has become then staying or leaving wouldn’t have become an issue. If it ain’t broke don’t try to fix it, unfortunately they tried to fix and improve it and they have now broken it beyond repair instead. This is just my opinion, but opinions are like assholes everybody has one.!!!
At last! Heterosexual, rich white men are officially a ‘victimised group’! Five men fitting this demographic are taking the ad agency JWT to court after they were made redundant. Their lawyer has described this group as victims with targets on their backs. They are claiming that they are victims of JWTs attempts to close its disgraceful 44.7% gender pay gap. They might also reflect that an advertising agency might get more business if it has a diverse workforce able to create campaigns aimed at a diverse market. Rather than just straight middle aged, middle class white men. I love the typical responses of blokes like this (who look like me to be fair) to identity politics. Usually they rubbish identity politics by indulging in identity politics, making themselves victims. Trump is the master of this. Well, tough titty me and my kind. We are in a process which started 200 years ago which will ultimately make accidents of birth - gender, race, sexuality - irrelevant, except in matters of personal attraction, and the world will be better for it. Won’t be complete for many many years yet, and there will be collateral damage along the way*. Get over it. Or if you have to protest, take the knee during the national anthem at Twickenham today. Though many of those in the stadium won’t be able to get back up again. * and yes I have been the ‘victim’ of this trend as well. I was asked to apply for a job in my company, then hurriedly asked to withdraw my application even though I was the most competent applicant, because there were ‘diversity’ candidates who had come forward. Fair enough, I got over it.
We don’t really care what happens abroad on a daily basis in fact I am doubtful we even look We are fed a diet of reality tv show and sport that is far more important than our own politics or those overseas such is the way our culture has slipped or developed I travel a lot throughout Europe I get to see and experience people and places so I believe I at least get a tone ... I have arrived at what I am due to these experiences of course I question it From the differences I see daily the behaviour of children being one that sticks out miles imo Ours are out of control that has its firm roots in cultural development There are problems real problems when you look in Europe ... no place is paradise you take yourself with yourself wherever you go Politics abroad especially French believe me I know about I pay into both systems and yes at times it’s crazy to witness what I do within the system. But overall how it works albeit different works even with the same fundamental frustration all humans have with systems Over here we have developed a different thing No idea what caused it ... it matters not Drama and Anxiety levels are for one far higher in the UK than anywhere I travel in Europe It’s not utopia as I say I have lifted the lid naturally of European culture it is not all roses A easy way to look st things would be to make a very honest list of the differences I am certain anyone will find that more faults lie in the UK We only have to look at our politics today as a start Here’s a starting point Europeans in general are also always complaining against politics and rules but the key difference is they do not accept things if they are wrong they act and they act big. We are in the position we are in today simply because of ourselves and because we cannot be bothered even when it’s time to act I believe the frustration we all feel today is because we have allowed our politics to lead us whereas generally in my experience politics serves the people in Europe ... public office serves the people in Europe and no one ever forgets that Yes it complex Yes it full of red tape Yes it’s boring Life is more important The UK has at least woken up to that at last hence the bitch fight and the non delivery of the people’s will ... I state that would be delivered My European friends are currently astonished to what they are witnessing unable to comprehend the events why? ... they could never see how things would be allowed to degrade to this level They believe public servants means exactly that We haven’t had anywhere near that and that is directly down to our UK culture
Told you G did I not? I did a lot of design work for Pride early this year Business trying to get involved now it’s safe and fashionable... CSR and tax write offs I know you get what happens there I refused to wear a rainbow lanyard in my offices as it was made compulsory and I solely designed the entire campaign. I had a very hard time as I would not and will not join in with this celebration just because I am told I must As with any mission statement or T&Cs on this subject it gets tricky and as I wrote the copy I wanted Hexosexuals to be included into the boiler plate of the designs ... after two weeks in late Feb/March of arguments I got my way Nothing is diverse if everyone is celebrating the same thing Bloody rainbow I replaced my with a bit of bailing twine and label that said tits and fannies rule
I’m not sure we are on the same side of this topic. From my perspective it’s a shame that in order to make accidents of birth irrelevant we have to emphasise them, but I don’t really see any way round this. And it really does crack me up when men like you and me moan about it when we have had everything our own way for forever. But I agree that some of the tactics are crass and possibly self defeating.
Did I criticise your point of view ? NO I merely stated my opinion, and to that, you accuse me of being brain-washed ? You arrogant arsehole, you assume, you are incapable of being brain-washed, and anyone, that disagrees with you, must be feeble minded, and incapable of their own opinion. You can repeat your words as often as you wish, that does not make them correct.
Totally acceptable Apologies not meaning to offend you sincerely I am not always right in fact more times than most I am wrong Of course I come across wrong I sincerely know this and apologise I have always had real problems expressing my points throughout life it’s one of many failures I have I do shout far too quickly and react to my own opinions in a wrong way I do not stop to consider other views quick enough I think this is because of my own life story which has left me bare of empathy and understanding I have lost a lot of people to death and possibly never recovered and live my life on a fast mode I suppose as I have the overwhelming feeling time is not be wasted and to that I know I quickly move on I produce **** and then expect people to move on from that ... that is wrong The advantages are however selfish but true When the final bill comes in for all of us I want to ensure a minimum time has been spent on fluff Apologies again
Apology accepted. As I said in my first post, opinions on such a significant issue, with opinions so divided, is very difficult to objectively "discuss". Particularly when the politicians and media suppling the "so-called" facts, are most probably, on both sides, are being very frugal with the truth, even if they actually know the truth.
Many thanks SM. Without being pendantic but only last night I heard some Irish bloke on the radio who was discussing the argument and said something different. I guess it’s what side you are from. It’s just a shame that in the 21st century people would revert to violence over something like an border check but I guess someone Irish would disagree.
Many thanks I totally agree with the media I escape it all when I am in France and have had trouble adjusting to a two weeks in the UK and two in France and Spain Hoping that many can understand the switch I experience and am trying to adjust to I get nothing then a load of rubbish in the UK media none of which seems trueful or takes responsibility... even the weather forecast I end up ranting at . I live in a place where these things aren’t so important to people ... it’s no better or worse but it is different
See the French have made the headlines over the fuel tax that’s how to do it Perfect example of the differences I have mentioned ... want to see what they did when they wanted to put up a wind turbine near to my home They blew up the surveyors base station My point is the people get out and make a united noise while we have allowed our politics to walk all over us then moan and bitch if it don’t go our way Credit to them imo and something we lack
Saw this on FB by someone called A Howard. A very well-reasoned piece, it seems to me, about the perils of No-Deal. Would any of the 'tell 'em to **** off' brigade (which now seems to include Dominic Raab) care to refute it? Last week on the school run, some fathers were teasing me about my “Brexit obsession” and couldn’t see what I was so worried about. I explained that I have never been so worried and am awake at 4am most nights. We laughed at me being consumed with worries that are none of my responsibility. I compared myself to Maple barking furiously while her owners were out of the house and there was no one there to listen to her warnings. It became immediately apparent as I explained the consequences of no deal to them and saw the horror on their faces that most people in this country have no real understanding of what no deal really means. Most people seem to think that if we leave with no deal then we just carry on as normal, right? They think it’s like deciding not to go ahead with a purchase in a shop - don’t we just stick with what we have got instead? Sadly not. If we have no deal, we leave with nothing and what’s more lose nearly everything we have got as well. The anticipated recession will be worse than the 1930s let alone 2008. it is impossible to say how long it would go on for - some say 10 years others 20 or 30. The empty mantra of “no deal is better than a bad deal” and nostalgic hopes that Britain is great, coped during the war and can recover its previous glory have blindsided people to reality. It also ignores the way that our country, technology, globalisation and intense competition have changed in the last 60 years or so. I don’t presume that you want to read my early morning rantings but in case you want more information, here are some basic facts of no deal (boring but important). If not then skip to the end of the bullets (or tell me to shut up and go back to sleep..) - everyone describes no deal as leaving on WTO terms. But there are no WTO terms that apply specifically to the U.K. Everyone assumed that we could simply rely on the EU’s Schedule of tariffs. That has recently been blocked by members of the WTO. Understandably. Why should the U.K. as a minor player be able to take advantage of the negotiating position of a large global trading bloc like the EU? - So we will have to negotiate our own tariffs - Which means getting the agreement of all 160 WTO members. The last successful round of negotiations was in 1994-every round since then has collapsed. - So unless we can set up emergency cover, we will see a hiatus in trade that will kick in on 30 March with no transition period. - Even if a U.K. schedule is agreed, we will see tariffs averaging 10% on imports and exports. In some sectors like meat and dairy they are as high as 97%. So U.K. farmers that export lamb and beef will see their prices double and won’t be able to compete with other markets. Their imports of animal feed and fertilisers will also face tariffs so their costs will increase squeezing their margins which are already under pressure. For manufacturing companies that import components and export finished goods, they face double tariffs affecting their ability to compete. - So ok we pay a bit more money for things and a few companies and farmers go bust. We may not get the full range of things in the shops. So what? - Only it’s not just about money. We are dependent on imports for a lot of things that we don’t make anymore, never have or simply cannot as they are patented - like life saving drugs, medical equipment and scanners, chemicals, electricity, petrol, milk. We will all be locked out of EU regulatory frameworks and agencies. With another winter NHS crisis and an population that needs heating and feeding, that could cost lives or spread panic and unrest. - In any event tariffs are not the main problem. The real issue are non tariff barriers like quality standards. The EU has high protection for product safety, food safety and hygiene, child safety, environmental protection, consumer protection and labelling. (Think CE Marks or fire ******ant standards for kids fancy dress, choking hazards, nut allergy labelling). The U.K. currently acts as a gateway to the single market, receiving goods from Asia before they are distributed elsewhere in the EU. The EU will not let in goods that avoid its standards. So we will have to follow those rules in any event leaving us a ruletaker with no say. - Even if we follow, there will be border checks and inspections - cue months of delays at ports and motorway congestion. Cue perishable goods and medicines going off. Cue insolvency in the supply chain as cash flow dries up. - But hang on a minute - we can sign up to our own trade deals now! Yes assuming anyone wants to. On 30 March we will be leaving the EU’s 48 FTAs in exchange for .. zero. Those agreements take on average 7 years to negotiate and they have to be ratified within the WTO framework (see point 1 above). In reality, most countries will want to negotiate with the EU first as a major market of 650m customers before they agree anything with the U.K. That is because they have to offer the same terms under the WTO rules to all other states. Commercially manufacturers won’t want to produce small volumes of products for a small market like the U.K. that are different as it is too expensive. If we are lucky we will get the same terms as the EU but we will then be a rule taker rather than in charge of our destiny. So a lot of hassle and delay for not much upshot. We will be turning our back on our largest customer (our trade deficit with the EU is 60%) in exchange for uncertain prospect of other deals. And the volumes of trade under these FTAs will be minuscule. - What is more the FTAs will be far inferior to what we currently have for services (which make up 80-90% of our economy). The EU regime is state of the art with mutual recognition and passporting so that U.K. business can trade automatically in 30 EEA states and all their dependent territories around the world. No licences, red tape or authorisations or double regulation at home and abroad. The WTO/GATTs regime is embryonic in comparison. States can discriminate on a discretionary basis and impose barriers like requiring you to requalify as a doctor, accountant or architect under their rules. Most States like India and Singapore don’t want the Brits coming in and taking over their markets. Most of you will have given up reading by now. Too much detail, too boring, too much naysaying, too much project fear. Too much doing down Britain and not enough patriotic zeal. I love my country and am immensely proud of what it has achieved. But it has not done that alone. The Empire was not built by white AngloSaxon hands alone...the UK’s success in the last 25 years is due in large part to Thatcher’s vision for the EU single market, where the U.K. shared and cooperated with its European counterparts. My fears stem from my love of the U.K. and the future of the next generation (including my own children). I refuse to sell them a dud. I want to be able to look them in the eye and tell them I did my my very best for them. What I don’t understand is the passivity that people have towards their own lives and destinies. They blindly assume that all will be ok and someone will sort it out for them. Or they are in depressed stupor, shrugging it off as all too complicated and what difference can one individual make? But what difference do raindrops make?! People snort and say the Government won’t let this happen. Sadly I am not that convinced. I have read all 585 pages of May’s deal and the political declaration. While I do think it is the best she could have got (actually better than I expected) it is not a patch on what we have being inside the EU or even EFTA/EEA model. What’s more we will have to pay 60m for the privilege and then no doubt pay annual ongoing payments to buy our way back into specific sectors where we need market access. The cost of Brexit to the taxpayer is already huge. The cost of no deal will quickly subsume the 350m a week with no upside in terms of trade, EU funding and infrastructure. I am convinced that if we leave and taste the fruits of May’s deal or no deal, there will quickly be a move to rejoin the EU. That may take 10-15 years and we will lose the benefit of Thatcher’s hard won rebates, vetoes and kiss goodbye to sterling. Timing is now becoming critical. I do not think May’s deal will command sufficient votes in Parliament. No one will be able to renegotiate better terms for that deal. That is not the EU being stubborn or a bully - it’s just the hard reality of us deciding to leave the club. That means unless Parliament gives alternative instructions that can be completed and ratified before March, we will leave with no deal. The politicians are locked in paralysis and take their impetus from what they think their constituents want - as expressed in the referendum. If there is a change then they need to know about it. Are you going to stand idly by? A witness to your own car crash? With your kids or grandkids strapped in the back? At the end of the day, as I said before the referendum, it depends on what kind of society you want to live in. There are those that want to align the UK more closely with the US with its low cost, low regulation economy where each man (gender deliberate) looks out for himself. That is good for business and shareholders but it puts profits ahead of people. Low regulations mean lower wages, lower employment protections such as maternity, parental leave and sickness cover. It means lower tax for business but reduced benefits for ordinary citizens in terms of health, education and other public services. Today’s UN report on austerity does not make easy reading but that situation will only worsen when the costs of Brexit work their way through to employees, taxpayers and consumers. I don’t see the likes of R-M and Farage suffering but will hit those hardest that are already worse off. Sensible policy making involves trade offs and compromises. We cannot have it all. It is time we work out what is more important - stopping immigration or preserving our own rights of free movement, preserving freedom to trade and with whom or maintaining our island independence, upholding the concept of sovereignty or engaging in international dialogue and cooperation, preserving our economy or our personal identity, reinforcing our statesmanship and global influence or just the memory of our Glorious past? I don’t know the answers but all I do know is that I don’t want our children’s futures to be the collateral damage. And nobody voted to be worse off or to see further austerity cuts to education, pensions or the NHS.
