Off Topic Politics Thread

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Bloody heck what a mess..........I have a feeling this may yet bite the UK in the bum.......I can see this being kicked out of parliament......With a no deal as a result........not quite understanding what the main problem is. Is it still NI that’s causing the main problem? Or the whole concept of us being under EU rule in their courts?
This has got me baffled......
 
ImpSaint said:
Typical rubbish from remain voices. David Davis resigned because May had sidelined him with Olly Robbins doing the negotiating. The Chequers deal was not what he had been working on and was presented instead of Davis' (and his advisors) plan that they had been working on.

Raab has gone the same way.

Problem here is out of Yes Minster. The politicians think they can beat the civil servants and find they can't.

Raab hasn't resigned because of something he negotiated. He has resigned because he could not support the deal that an unelected civil servant and his team present to the public in the minister's name.

All very well these celebs and other remain voices trying to present it so simple as Armando does here but it isn't the truth. Raab might put his name forward for the leadership race when it happens but he will not be doing so expecting to have a chance. He has no chance. It would be purely tactical to move votes from someone else and protect a main candidate with a chance.

Completely expected though because only the other side lies. They have no mirrors. They cannot see their own hypocrisy.


Those 2 aren't the big ones though. The positions might be but the honourable member for the top half of Pompey is a possible leadership runner so if a resignation comes there it will be a much bigger tremor than Raab or McVey.


The comment above about May. Another unfactual piece. Boris was outsmarted first by Gove, who knocked him straight out of contention last time. How you think May outsmarted Boris when she had to give him a top job, and was powerless to sack him when she could is crazy but then we are used to your satirical input on politics.

Even now it is not May that is outsmarting Boris. Other riders are the ones that are outsmarting him. Maybe he is stupid enough to think he can make it to the top job this time round, who knows?

I suspect if he does run he will get knocked out well before the final 2. He has a light chance only iuf he gets to a member's vote but even then he is not favourite.

The money for the final 2 is on Hunt vs Javid with Mordaunt (my choice) and Gove having a chance to be in there. Javid is the favourite and almost certain to make the last 2.
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Glad to see you’re concentrating on the May succession rather than watching the government of the UK sliding into a self-created shambles.
 
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Beddytare said:
Bloody heck what a mess..........I have a feeling this may yet bite the UK in the bum.......I can see this being kicked out of parliament......With a no deal as a result........not quite understanding what the main problem is. Is it still NI that’s causing the main problem? Or the whole concept of us being under EU rule in their courts?
This has got me baffled......
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i said this before, but soft brexit is us being under EU rules without having any say in them. some people might think that still gives us more control but not everybody.

The big political problem is there's 3 options here: soft brexit, no deal or remain --- and there's not a majority for any of them (although remain comes close)

Leave has(had) the biggest support but is split while remain has the biggest unified support.

soft brexit is the middle ground but i think it probably has the smallest individual support though i'm not sure on that.

In other words, its a mess.
 
The only democratic solution i can think of is a 3 way AV vote.

No - Deal.
Deal
Remain.

First round will knock out the smaller leave vote and we can decide for ourselves between the then known meaning of brexit and staying in.

A straight 3 way vote would favour remain due to the leave vote being split so wouldn't be representative.
 
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ChilcoSaint said:
Glad to see you’re concentrating on the May succession rather than watching the government of the UK sliding into a self-created shambles.
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The May succession is what will decide what happens in this mess. Not just about Tories. Brexit rides on this. Corbyn in No10 or not rides on this. Much more than just "Ooh new tory leader, popcorn time."
 
VocalMinority said:
The only democratic solution i can think of is a 3 way AV vote.

No - Deal.
Deal
Remain.

First round will knock out the smaller leave vote and we can decide for ourselves between the then known meaning of brexit and staying in.

A straight 3 way vote would favour remain due to the leave vote being split so wouldn't be representative.
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There won't be a 3rd referendum unless there is a GE first OR a strong remain supporter replaces May.

The former is much more likely however, if a strong leaver becomes PM (Boris has no chance) then they may decide to run the duration of the Parliament and push Brexit (not soft or hard, just Brexit) through properly.

This option again is hard to see working because the Tories need their majority back to do so.

The only thing I can see is that we have a new PM shortly who is at least sympathetic to Brexit (Javid, Gove) or is fully behind a real Brexit (Mordaunt) and announces a GE. In this scenario of a leaver being PM they would then hope to consolidate the Leave vote behind the Tories (the only thing propping the Tories up at the last GE) and regain their majority.

This would of course hope to pull any leave voters that voted Corbyn last year over to the Tories seeing as Labour are now clear they aren;t fully behind a real Brexit. Need Kier Starmer and Chukka's continued help on that one.

If Hunt wins then no point holding a GE unless the Tories are stupid enough to believe that the 12m that voted Tory last time are actually voting Tory and not Brexit. No-one believes Hunt is a convert to Brexit despite his words. He would not attract leave voters from Labour even without his history as health secretary.
 
ImpSaint said:
There won't be a 3rd referendum unless there is a GE first OR a strong remain supporter replaces May.

The former is much more likely however, if a strong leaver becomes PM (Boris has no chance) then they may decide to run the duration of the Parliament and push Brexit (not soft or hard, just Brexit) through properly.

This option again is hard to see working because the Tories need their majority back to do so.

The only thing I can see is that we have a new PM shortly who is at least sympathetic to Brexit (Javid, Gove) or is fully behind a real Brexit (Mordaunt) and announces a GE. In this scenario of a leaver being PM they would then hope to consolidate the Leave vote behind the Tories (the only thing propping the Tories up at the last GE) and regain their majority.

This would of course hope to pull any leave voters that voted Corbyn last year over to the Tories seeing as Labour are now clear they aren;t fully behind a real Brexit. Need Kier Starmer and Chukka's continued help on that one.

If Hunt wins then no point holding a GE unless the Tories are stupid enough to believe that the 12m that voted Tory last time are actually voting Tory and not Brexit. No-one believes Hunt is a convert to Brexit despite his words. He would not attract leave voters from Labour even without his history as health secretary.
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I'm glad you seem to know what's going on Imps, because absolutely no one else in the country appears to have a Scooby, including all the people you just mentioned.
 
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Archers Road said:
I'm glad you seem to know what's going on Imps, because absolutely no one else in the country appears to have a Scooby, including all the people you just mentioned.
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They know what is going on. They are politicians and are well practised in pretending they aren't aware of things. Mogg has just announced he has sent his letter in. So the 48 will undoubtedly be triggered today (if it hasn't already.)

Notable that May had Mordaunt sat right next to her in the commons. Still on side or the PM trying to keep her eye on her?
 
ImpSaint said:
They know what is going on. They are politicians and are well practised in pretending they aren't aware of things. Mogg has just announced he has sent his letter in. So the 48 will undoubtedly be triggered today (if it hasn't already.)

Notable that May had Mordaunt sat right next to her in the commons. Still on side or the PM trying to keep her eye on her?
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May certainly knew what was going to happen when she triggered the last general election.
 
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VocalMinority said:
May certainly knew what was going to happen when she triggered the last general election.
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She did when she triggered it but then foobarred it up when she came out with Nick Timothy's ideas in her manifesto. It was the campaign "wot done it." Tories were a shoe in at the time she triggered it.
 
ImpSaint said:
She did when she triggered it but then foobarred it up when she came out with Nick Timothy's ideas in her manifesto. It was the campaign "wot done it." Tories were a shoe in at the time she triggered it.
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how about Cameron and his triggering the referendum in the first place or Boris in his using the referendum for his leadership bid.
Politicians gamble as much if not more than the rest of us.
 
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VocalMinority said:
how about Cameron and his triggering the referendum in the first place or Boris in his using the referendum for his leadership bid.
Politicians gamble as much if not more than the rest of us.
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Agreed but then trying to change anything is always a gamble. Politicians have to try and change much more things than the average person who tends to keep their own lives as routine as possible.
 
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ImpSaint said:
They know what is going on. They are politicians and are well practised in pretending they aren't aware of things. Mogg has just announced he has sent his letter in. So the 48 will undoubtedly be triggered today (if it hasn't already.)

Notable that May had Mordaunt sat right next to her in the commons. Still on side or the PM trying to keep her eye on her?
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You're talking about individuals manoeuvring in the best interests of their careers. I'm talking about the country's future.

I genuinely don't think anyone has a clue what happens next, but very few politicians, or journalists for that matter, have the integrity to say so.
 
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Archers Road said:
You're talking about individuals manoeuvring in the best interests of their careers. I'm talking about the country's future.

I genuinely don't think anyone has a clue what happens next, but very few politicians, or journalists for that matter, have the integrity to say so.
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Allegedly May has offered Brexit secretary to Gove. And he has said he will only accept it if he can renegotiate the deal himself (not civil servants) and if not he is considering resigning anyway! allegedly.
 
May has announced a press briefing at 5pm. What's the odds she is jumping in before the letter have been counted and about to do a "back me or sack me" like John Major. I don;t think she has anywhere near the support Major had though.
 
ImpSaint said:
They know what is going on. They are politicians and are well practised in pretending they aren't aware of things. Mogg has just announced he has sent his letter in. So the 48 will undoubtedly be triggered today (if it hasn't already.)

Notable that May had Mordaunt sat right next to her in the commons. Still on side or the PM trying to keep her eye on her?
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She could suspend party membership for the Rees-Mogg type of Conservative MPs who want a Hard Brexit? That would then scuttle that particular problem.
 
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