It's not my maiden to follow Ron. I just updated that she was running in the Bosra Sham race.
The one I fancied did not come over but the trainer has another filly in the race. Angelic Light has been very highly tried and ran in the Group 1 Moyglare but she was well out of her depth there. This is her easiest task since winning her maiden nicely.
Lady Aria ran well on soft on debut but she ran below her Dick Poole form when winning last time and the runner up was posted missing next time in a handicap off 76. Biggest concern is the poor stable form of Michael Bell, who is 0/23 the past fortnight and a horrible 30% for horses running to form in that same period. I can't back her at 5/2 for that reason.
Simon Crisford IS in form on 6/24 and also boasts 89% for horses running to form this past fortnight. The downside with her is her lower rating thus far and poor collateral form of her races. The stable won this race with an improver last season but she got fast ground for the first time that day and probably improved for it. She hasn't run again since to be able to say one way or the other.
Gypsy Spirit is short enough for me at 5/1. Not a good strike rate and her latest run was not as good as a 3rd placing would suggest. She ran well below her top rating then and the stable hasn't had a winner for nearly two months.
I would also pass on the Candy filly. She was highly tried at Royal Ascot and not disgraced but she has been off for a while, tackles 6F and soft ground now, so with Candy 0/20 at the moment she looks very poor value at 9/2.
A few lightly raced ones open to improvement but they need a bit to catch up.
Aldana should go well for her in form yard but needs a stone and a half really. She is also too skinny at this time of year and soft in the going.
For value I am going to waste a few quid on Angelic Light. She has form on yielding and won her maiden nicely enough. Out of her depth in Group 3 and Group 1 contests over 7F, she wasn't too bad in a Listed over 5 and a half furlongs at Navan and a return to that grade should help. She sports first time cheekpieces after having been fitted with a tongue tie previously. I am hoping these are signs, along with the ambitious entries she has kept, that they feel that she has more in the locker. I would have liked the stable in better form but you need question marks to get decent prices and I think others here are far worse value than Angelic Light, who I thought was value at 14/1.
1.40 Newmarket Angelic Light 14/1
Aldana looks the other option but I would have been needing 6/1 as a minimum price in a tricky race, rather than the 9/2.
My negatives for value were Lady Aria for a badly out of form looking Michael Bell, while Kurious and Gypsy Spirit also look far too short to me.
Best of luck to all players.
. I'll change it back
