To form readers it doesn't look good but as I said before, Sea The Stars didn't beat plodders by more than he needed to. It's a watch with interest for me. Can't say I'm confident, just playing DA re the form reading
Agree at the moment this looks a poor Futurity/Timeform/Observer Gold Cup. The Newbury race Raakib Alhawa won has often thrown up some good types. He may be a good colt and so also may be the second in that race Dashing Willoughby. On paper he has 2lb over the winner but Raakib A seemed to win with something in hand despite the neck victory. However I like Nathaniels and they go in the soft just as he did. I'm hoping Dashing Willoughby (terrible name but from a Group 1 family, that of Meon Valley's foundation mare One in a Million) comes on as much as the horse that beat him. They both looked inexperieced to me but they beat reasonable horses a long way. So for a reasonable E-W bet I'm putting up Dashing willoughby to pull off a surprise.
Given that the fully exposed Western Australia was so close in 3rd would indicate that the winner, who was 6l in front of the 3rd at Newmarket (although different ground) has not improved much, if at all. Won't be looking to him for the 2000 Gns
Not an impressive win but I was happy with that double. 18.5/1 on the double and a shade over 25 pts profit on the bet is always welcome. That's probably it for me this season. The jumps make little appeal to me with the big stables almost totally dominating the game and zero value about. I thought Magna Grecia looked a bit below peak condition today. He seemed a bit dull, and that, combined with the drift in the betting, made me have a late saver on the forecast selection Phoenix Of Spain, who ran well. I read somewhere that Magna Grecia was fancied to be Aidan's Guineas colt next season but if that is his best hope for the mile Classic it doesn't look good. He came under the pump from a long way out today and it was staying that won the day for him. He was tenacious behind Persian King last time and had to be tough again today, so he has battling qualities. He looks to lack true Classic quality after winning a race where they were in a bit of a heap at the finish and I feel sure Aidan will end up trying to make Ten Sovereigns his leading 2000 Guineas contender despite the stamina question. Turgenev looked a short price at 10/3 after being 6/1 last night and he did have plenty to find with the ultimate 1-2 on the book. He is a colt who won his next two without really progressing much from his earlier 2nd. King Ottokar was thrown in at the deep end and I feel the trainer got carried away there. I can't see what good it does rushing a horse to Group 1 company and being splatted across the track. That's a back to the drawing board job and the same applied to the Simcock colt, who needed to find more than a stone to get on the coat tails of the highest rated here, yet was only 6/1 Long wait to the Classics next year now. Happy Punting jumps followers
Yes it was a close finish but in the end the winner did it well and I wouldn't write him off just yet.
Magna Grecia was awarded 114 by the Racing Post today. That is an identical figure to the one he earned behind Persian King last time. The question is that we need to believe that Western Australia improved 12 lbs today, on his 6th start. It seems a bit dubious, particularly as he was a blatant pacemaker today. Despite Turgenev's "Disappointing" run today, it was rated a 5 lbs personal best by the Racing Post. Given that little seperated the first 4 home and Aidan's general lack of quality in this year's crop, I am taking a negative view of this renewal and I feel Magna Grecia is poor value for the Derby at as low as 12/1.
Agreed. The bare evidence of the Vertem Futurity Trophy would appear to suggest that it was a Group 1 renewal in name only. The proximity of one of the pacemakers to the winner naturally leads to the conclusion that it was not a great race, especially given the fact that a blanket could have covered the first five home. The twice-raced winner clearly ran green and took time to get going, only securing victory in the shadow of the post. The runner-up did little for the Too Darn Hot form lines as he had every chance in a race that was run at a decent lick thanks to two Ballydoyle runners that were clearly there to make sure that the race did not turn into a sprint that would not have suited the favourite. Interviewed by Sally Ann Grassick immediately after the race, O’Blarney gave the puzzling opinion that the winner would be best at a mile (the race distance). Was he watching a different race? The visual evidence clearly indicated that it wanted further as it does not have the explosive turn of foot that one might expect of a top miler that is held up in mid division or at the rear. Much more likely to be another Kingsbarns than another Saxon Warrior or Camelot.
I was sort of encouraged by the way the race panned out. All of my Derby ante-post bets are doubtful of getting the trip at Epsom, not that this is anything new because I subscribe to the notion that "If you think you have sufficient stamina for Epsom, you probably have too much". My three for The Derby are Too Darn Hot, Quorto and Persian King. All three of them will probably start in the Guineas, so two will be beaten there but it will all depend on how that race turns out and which one, or ones, look capable of stepping up in trip for Epsom. I would rather pick three early, at big odds, than be waiting next May for slower horses to show something in one of the Derby trials but probably look too slow in something like the Chester Vase, which actually has a terrible record for winners going on to glory on Derby Day. Too Darn Hot 50/1, Quorto 25/1 and Persian King 40/1 was a relatively inexpensive three bullets and iif one of them runs in the Derby I'll be delighted. Getting two in the race would be the dream but the odds are that none of them in the race would be unsurprising. In the Guineas, the same three horses at 6/1, 14/1 and 25/1 is more likely to succeed and if I can get two running there for me, I'll be pleased.
