When I began following racing the old William Hill Futurity was the traditional contest for end of season Derby types. Despite the standing of the race, it never really threw up a future Derby winner from the colts who landed the race. ITV news reviewed the race in the mid 1980's with the tagline that it was "the race which is so often won by the horse who goes on to land the Derby" but it wasn't true and the horse who won that year's Futurity , Bakharoff, didn't win the Derby the following year either. Reference Point broke the hoodoo the following season in landing the Epsom Classic of 1987 but it would be another 15 seasons before High Chapparal repeated the feat. Several colts have achieved the double since but it's far from a given that the race renamed The Racing Post Trophy in 1989 and updated to carry the new title of Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes this season, will see this year's winner go on to Epsom glory, although they will almost certainly be cut in the ante-post market. As ever the O'Brien camp are multi handed in the entries and a lot of getting an early betting angle going will be down to trying to figure which colt Ryan Moore will be on board come the day. Aidan's son Donnacha seems to have replaced Seamie Heffernan as the Coolmore number 2 and I have heard opinion suggesting that the trainer's son could become the main man next season, surely that would mean bye-bye to Ryan Moore, who apparently gave up a 2000 Guineas win in order to try to win the Kentucky Derby, apparently the biggest ambition the jockey now has. It hasn't been a vintage looking year for Coolmore 2YO colts, with Anthony Van Dyck leading the way into the Dewhurst Stakes. He had already been beaten by Godolphin's Quorto and he makes no appeal to me as a Guineas contender, while his appeal as a Derby contender is also on the wane. Several of Aidan's eight entries look very exposed and it seems likely one of the lesser exposed of his may be the one to be on. Norway won the Zetland Stakes and his stamina is assured but that was hardly a stellar field and he may be more of a Leger horse in time. Japan makes more appeal after landing his last two races but he scrambled home a bit in the Beresford and although he will stay it looked a weak group 2 he won. For me Magna Grecia looks the one with the most potential from the stable and he kept on well to give Persian King a wee fright in the Autumn Stakes before finishing clear of stable companion Circus Maximus for second place behind the Fabre colt. That was a good effort and he's the one I would select if they were to let a 50 year old weighing 15 stone take the mount. Gosden has two here, Turgenev has won his last two but they were modest affairs and he needs a lot more now. Kick On has been second and then first but both races were maidens and this is a Group 1. Phoenix Of Spain has arguably the best form here. A group 3 winner and runner up to Dewhurst winner Too Darn Hot means he has been mixing with good horses but Charlie Hills is not a man I follow and I feel a mile on soft will not play to Phoenix Of Spain's strength. This will seem like a slog for him. Karl Burke's Scat Daddy horse Kadar went into a few notebooks but having missed the Autumn Stakes because the ground was too fast, we have now seen his form take a dent after the poor effort from Waldenstern in the Zetland. Kadar's RPR of 86 leaves him with a lot to find with several others in the race. Great Scot has decent form and will cope with the ground but he looks a bit short of the class required. The once raced winners need to come forward a lot and although it is possible something is lurking, I prefer one already rated near the head of affairs here. Conclusion:- Although Phoenix Of Spain's form level is highly respected, this doesn't look the same test he has faced over shorter. Trip and ground seem against his profile thus far. I am siding with Magma Grecia, who ran a belter last time after a very taking debut win. He went down to a horse who is only 16/1 for the 2000 Guineas now and the way he kept on there made him look like he will last home on Saturday. He seems to have more toe than some of Aidan's entrants. I reckon Magna Grecia goes off 2/1 if Moore rides, so I had to take 7/2, which may seem big by Thursday. Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes Magna Grecia 7/2 Good luck to all players.
I'm not going to attempt to analyse this one. I'll just stick with Turgenev 9/2. Pity he isn't a bigger price for ew. On debut finished runner up to subsequent G1 winner Royal Marine (ridden out with Broome, Anodor and Boitron all behind). Won his next race easily and won his next race like he was in an exercise gallop. Big step up in class but he has had a very easy season against inferior rivals and I'm guessing Frankie knows he is on a good'un here. Royal Marine has gone up 20lb since that defeat of Turgenev, having had the benefit of a run against the very smart Jash who was subsequently btn ½l Ten Sovereigns. Turgenev, on the other hand has seen his rating go up by just 11lb, having not beaten anything of note. But the ease by which he beat those suggests he is worth a much higher rating. If I were looking for an ew bet then 16/1 Raakib Alhawa looks interesting. By the classy Kingman out of a Sea the Stars mare, won his only race, only having to be pushed out to win. There are plenty of entries with taking pedigrees which is why I'm not going to look any deeper. They are all immature 2yos developing at different rates so a paddock inspection could rule a few out
I will have a personal interest in Kadar as his grandsire is one of 3 on our shortlist of stallions for our Dancing Brave granddaughter
This doesnt look a strong racing post and I wonder if they might take a chance at a G1 with King Ottokar rather than the G3 Horris Hill. This is probably the best 2yo Charlie Fellowes has come across so far and Obrien doesnt have a St Nic/Camelot/Saxon Warrior type this year. Id be more scared of taking on Chairmanoftheboard at Newbury as he looks a monster, and with the ground at Donny likely to be softer, it looks a no brainer to me. I like Japan from Obriens and hes had this race as a target, hes a proper Derby/Leger type and id be surprised if hes out of the top 3 but maybe something will be too quick for him in this. Magna Grecia is a nice enough type but this is a different ball game to Newmarket on fast ground and its his 3rd run in just a couple of weeks, he had the race set up for him at HQ, Persian King travelled all over him and outstayed him, on pedigree he should handle the ground but I cant have him for this testing mile and I dont think hes top class. Turgenev is a nice horse and as Ron alluded to, bumped into a good one first time out and hasnt beat much in two subsequent wins, could be stupid to oppose Gosden and Dettori just now but I dont think hes good enough to win this. Pheonix of Spain sets the standard on form but the mile on soft ground will almost certainly stretch him, hes a decent class horse but could be a 6/7f type. The two most interesting prospects for me are Kadar and King Ottokar, I think both have produced strong maiden wins and are likely to improve a ton and I just think its a race for something unexposed this year, I much prefer them over the Simcock horse Raakib Alhaawa. Last year you knew Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion were bringing in a very high level but the standard does not loook as high here so im hoping one of these maiden winners will step up and im siding with King Ottokar at 20/1 in the hope they share my logic and go for this race, wont get many better chances than this to win a G1.
This looks a weaker renewal than normal and I probably wouldn't have selected Magna Grecia in another year. I also did San Donato in the G3 Doncaster Stakes. His win over Hello Youmzain looks better after the Ryan horse won well in Gp 2 company in France and although San Donato beat a moderate field last time, he scampered right away from his field. Thought good enough to run at Royal Ascot on his second start Roger Varian's son of Lope De Vega never got into it behind Arthur Kitt and I reckon he'll be better suited by 6F than 7F this season. He seemed suited by the sprint trip the last twice and I think he can deal with soft ground. San Donato was 9/2 on Betfair yesterday but I had to settle for 10/3 for my singles and a double with Magna Grecia. Barbill is prominent in the Doncaster Stakes betting but he is entered and jocked up elsewhere, whereas San Donato is one of the few actually having a jockey shown in Andrea Atzeni. It may end up a smaller field and I thought second Fav Breath Of Air was worth opposing from the Charlie Hills yard. Probably my last bets on the Flat other than ante-post Breeders Cup stuff.
I had a look back at the Autumn Stakes a few times yesterday. It is noticeable that Magna Grecia comes under pressure well before Persian King does and he stays on well all the way to the line. If we take Persian King out of it and consider the race, Magna Grecia runs out a nice winner, with a real stayer's performance, closing the leaders down and staying on best of the lot for a taking win. Looking at Magna Grecia's style of running, he lifts his knee quite high, in contrast to Persian King and his action is quite rounded, a sign normally associated with a horse who will be effective on soft ground. Magna Grecia was supplemented for this race and the Racing Post had an article stating that the colt will lead O'Brien's team into the race. Generally halved to 7/4 from 7/2 I could see him shorten further still with several of Aidan's entries starting to drift in the market in a manner suggesting they will not line up. We'll know more tomorrow.
Eleven left from the initial entries. Kadar is not in the field after being popular the last couple of days. Aidan relies on Magna Grecia, Circus Maximus and Western Australia. I feel the latter two will be running to set it up for Magna Grecia by ensuring some cover and putting pace to the race. Turgenev is second favourite with Phoenix Of Spain next best. King Ottokar is in the field and the trainer feels it is worth a go. They will certainly find out where they are with the Motivator colt now, rather than having to wait until next spring. He reminds me of Loxley for Godolphin last season, when I though they might have been better bringing him along gradually after an impressive start but they went for glory and it didn't pan out. Turgenev doesn't have the form for me here, his latest race saw the runner up beaten at 4/11 Fav in a Gowran maiden and the 4th was beaten favourite at Newmarket yesterday. Phoenix Of Spain is the only one with comparable form and I am sure they will try to run the guts out of him to set it up for Magna Grecia. Best price Magna Grecia is now 13/8 with Donnacha doing the steering, as Ryan Moore is in Australia. I'm reasonably confident, with Phoenix Of Spain feared most.
A few will be looking at this and thinking you wont get a better chance than this to win a G1, in name only really.
I thought in the Autumn Stakes that CIRCUS MAXIMUS had a few things go against him. The ground would not have been ideal, he got unbalanced by the track and also was impeded by Persian King at a critical stage of the race. He has a few lengths to make up on his stablemate but the fairer track at Doncaster and the softer ground will be two big ticks in boxes for him. That race was a Group 3 won by a horse I would imagine many regard as Group 1 and I reckon the best form in this comes from that race. Magna Grecia the likely winner but at 16/1 CIRCUS MAXIMUS the value bet!
I'll stick with Turgenev. I don't take too much notice of the form of those that finished behind him. He won easily; no point exerting the horse to win by 20l when he can win easily "Held up well in touch in midfield, closed to track leaders 4f out until led over 2f out, pushed clear over 1f out and well in command inside final furlong, eased towards finish, very easily" You only have to look at Sea The Stars to prove that point. Never won by much against plodders but won just as easily in the Arc Impeccably bred, by the exceptional sire Dubawi (whose progeny progress well), out of a mare by Nayef (half brother to Nashwan) who gets 2yo winners from summer, and progeny progress On his debut he was btn just 2¼l by a very smart colt (Royal Marine) despite being last out of the gate and having to be checked. Considering the winner had the benefit of a previous outing, that was a decent run by Turgenev ( I see he was actually fancied to beat the winner) Royal Marine is rated equal with Magna Grecia on 113p at Timeform. So, if anything beats Turgenev it will be Magna Grecia. Depends how they have progressed relatively (regardless of form) I will be interested to see just what he has under the bonnet in this race
I am waiting to see what turns out and what the ground and weather are like but the fact that they added Magna Grecia to the race does immediately put me off any of the other Ballydoyle inmates – although it would not be the first time if the most favoured one in the betting is overturned. After the Autumn Stakes, Magna Grecia went in my notebook as a possible middle distance horse for next season but winning on Saturday would be bad news for any Derby aspirations as he would probably be made ante post favourite and only four winners have gone on to win the Derby this century – and when Authorized won this race it was run at Newbury.
Be astounded if an Invincible Spirit was made fav for the Derby, doubly so for winning a weak race in a bog, triply so when there is already a proven superstar fav.
Magna Grecia would have to win by a huge margin to be the Derby favourite in the aftermath. Aidan has a weak looking hand this season for both the Guineas and The Derby. Of late his Galileo clones have been mopping up in the St Leger and this year he had so little Derby material that he had to force Saxon Warrior to be a Derby horse because he knew the others were too slow. It was regrettable that he never acepted the facts and let the horse return to a mile, instead trying to make Gustav Klimt into a miler before more or less just stabbing blindly in an effort to find a pie that matched the knife he was flailing with. You get the feeling that the trainer will end up building Ten Sovereigns as his Guineas horse this time. I don't think it will work out that way though. The horse is overrated in myopinion. They had to rate a maiden 100 to make Ten Sovereigns have a strong rating and although the trainer of Bruce Wayne thought his horse was a good prospect, he emphasised that the Group 3 Round Tower runner up would run in a maiden next time. The colt has not been seen since though. Ten Sovereigns' maiden win has worked out terribly 1 winner from 38 subsequent runs, with 29 unplaced. Another big factor is Sire No Nay Never and a feature of his progeny thus far is that they have not gone forward in general. Ten Sovereigns is the only one of his offspring who has gone unbeaten. Early promising sorts The Irish Rover and Land Force, who are the next best rated of the Sire's progeny hold records of 1 from 8 and 3 from 8. Eight runs is a lot for a 2YO you would hope to see make a name for itself at 3YO and you have to think it is an acceptance that they see them as precocious sorts, with the disappoitment being that they seem tohave burned out rather quickly. As far as Magna Grecia is concerned I haven't really considered him beyond this race. I hope I already have thrown all the darts I will need to in the 2000 Guineas and Derby. I'll probably miss in the end but I am not one to chase the races at short odds. It's hard for me to imagine backing Magna Grecia for the Classics but I just felt this was a race well within his scope, in a year where the miler type colts look so much stronger in depth of talent.
Unless there is substantial rain, it is unlikely to be ‘a bog’, although certain parts of Doncaster are 24/7. Too Darn Hot will almost certainly be crowned champion two year old but his position at the head of the Classic markets is questionable. He clearly did not handle The Dip at Newmarket but his class got him out of trouble and he won well and the disappointing efforts of his main market rivals there are not his fault. It is not impossible that something will improve past him over the winter and he will not find it so easy in the Guineas. In four starts he has beaten just 20 rivals. Given the undulations and camber at Epsom, he is no certainty to handle that track so I would not touch him for the Derby. Make a note of the post so you can have a laugh in June if he proves me wrong.
I backed Too Darn Hot for the Derby before his first run, purely because of the breeding and trainer, plus, highly unusually, there were odds available. He was 50/1 then but only 20/1 in the aftermath. I advised people to take 20/1 before his next start and he was cut again following the quick return to the track. It was nice to have big odds for Epsom but the path he took was atypical of a Derby contender and after the Dewhurst I was left with the opinion that he's unlikely to be suited by 12F and Epsom racecourse. The rating for Too Darn Hot is at a level where it gives him little room to come forward any further a 3YO, he's already higher than Masar got for winning the Derby and higher than Saxon Warrior got for winning the 2000 Guineas on an official rating of 125. Aidan's colt Churchill was a similar sort who went into the Guineas and won it without improving much at all and he then followed up in the Irish version before he seemed to be caught and passed by the later improving types and I suspect Too Darn Hot may be the same in landing the first classic and perhaps levelling out, Gosden has also said he is dubious about the colt getting the Derby trip anyway. If I were a pro punter I would sell my 50/1 bet right now.
Mmm, Franz Kafka, who was 3rd to Turgenev last time, could only manage 6th place as 8/11 Fav today. Not all people worry about placed horses franking the form but it looks a "Man the lifeboats" job for the SS Turgenev in the Futurity for me anyway. 2nd and 3rd beaten at odds on in maidens is bad news bears to these old eyes.
