The Autumn Stakes at Newmarket has a decent looking entry and although Aidan O' Brien has six entered, I don't fancy any of them for varying reasons. Some don't look good enough as they are pretty exposed and it's a big enough ask for the maiden winners to step up. I am all over Persian King for this one, as I thought him the best looking colt for the future in France this season. The Racing Post had Persian King rated 82 after his second race but I felt he was nearer 100 and it seemed clear that most people felt the same after he thrashed a previous 7 length winner on his only start, Preddy Head's Lone Peak, on his next start. After that second win Andre Fabre revealed that he thought Persian King was his best 2YO this season and he added that he was aiming him towards the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. The trainer explained that he likes to let a 2YO have a go at Newmarket aged two when he feels he may have a Guineas contender and stated that the colt would skip the Lagardere and go for the Autumn Stakes because the Dewhurst looked a bit hot at this stage of his horses career. Wind Chimes showed last week that things can go wrong but I feel Persian King has what it takes to lift this Group 3 race at a mile. He really hosed home last time, tracking the runner up before leaving him behind readily. The son of Kingman has an imposing look and a long, effortless stride. If Andre Fabre feels he's Guineas grade, I expect to see Persian King land this race cosily. In my opinion he's way over priced in places at 3/1. Cape Of Good hope is generally second favourite but he looks exposed as nothing special to me. I make Persian King 6/4 at best and I would probably take that if it were the best available. I reckon 3/1 is value and I'll be heartbroken if he can't win on Saturday. I backed him at 25/1 for the 2000 Guineas and hope to see him sitting a good bit shorter come Saturday evening. Autumn Stakes Persian King 3/1 seems like Christmas in October to me.
That's interesting. Do you know how many lost in the 1,000/2,000 Guineas That could be even more interesting
Must confess that as soon as I wrote that I did wonder how many 2YOs Andre Fabre had run at Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course that didn’t win either Guineas!
Most significant move is probably Ladbrokes cutting Persian King to 2/1. Bet365 go 11/4 and I highly recommend those odds. When the decs are made tomorrow, I expect some to go to the Zetland Stakes and so long as Persian King stands his ground he'll be 5/4 once the punters wake up and catch a faint whiff of the 3/1 that went abegging.
I felt it was worth the upside to play at 3/1. Fabre said some time ago that the Autumn Stakes was the target. The trainer gave the reason as being that the Dewhurst was too hot at this stage of his career but having watched Persian King's debut at 7F I would reckon the trainer would be reluctant to drop the colt back to that trip, given that it looked like Persian King was only beaten by Anodor being a sharper type with a quicker action. Simon Rowlands, of Timeform, has fairly recently started doing cadence analysis to help trip prognosis. It's a subject I have only vaguely used myself over the years to assist in predicting a horse's chance of staying a certain distance. It's basically a theory that shorter strides, but faster cadence becomes less of an advantage as trip increases and that a horse with a longer stride, but unable to match the number of strides over a certain distance, will be able to sustain the effort for longer than the faster strider can when upped in trip. I would compare it to Usain Bolt vs the former World Record holder Calvin Smith. Smith was a much smaller athlete at 5' 10", compared to Bolt on 6' 5" and bolt had a much bigger stride. Calvin Smith was described in his day as a "Flapper" meaning that he had a very fast gait. Despite being World Champion twice in the 80's over 200m Smith's winning times were modest enough at 20.16 and 20.14. Smith only broke 20 seconds once in his lifetime and that was only just with a PB of 19.99 Bolt was never supposed to be a 100m runner because of his height and I first saw him over 200m at the World Junior Championship where he seemed incredibly tall for his age. Bolt's PB of 19.19 is a staggering 0.8 seconds quicker than Calvin Smith's and I think that demonstrates the difference in cadence/stride length as the distance increases. I don't take it as badly as some punters when not getting a run for my bet. I don't bet them short, so even if they do turn up it's odds-on, or very LONG odds-on that they will lose in any case. Backing them at bigger odds means I lose less chasing the same net win and the stakes/return ratio is more feasible for me. Of course others are entitled to do it their own way but I feel the bane of the punter is backing at odds which require a high strike rate to maintain profitabilty. I reckon we are poorly served with news updates regarding French horses and I think it's scandalous how late bookies leave it for offering odds on French Racing. Looking on oddschecker reveals races in India are priced up while we wait forever to see anything offered for races in France. I wanted to back Persian King for the Guineas after his debut race but there was nothing and even after his next race there were no quotes. My local independent bookie back in the day used to give me 66/1 or 50/1 on these types for £5 or £10 quid but he ceased trading teens of years ago. I reckon Aidan's team here looks weak and some of the odds on the others look as if bookies are clueless given the huge variations and silly odds as low as 4/1 on horses I don't think much of and whom have plenty to prove. Some of them are no means certain to run either, yet represent much worse value to my eyes. Fingers crossed for tomorrow.
Kadar been smashed up, 7s last night, into short as 3s. Was smashed up first time out as well and looks a good horse, penny dropped late and he ran away from the Zetland fav, multiple other winners have come from the race. Looks the main danger but hopefully he's more a middle distance horse than a miler.
Just nine declared now and still excellent value available with a few firms going 9/4 Persian King. He's 6/4 in some places and the ones going 9/4 must be assuming Andre Fabre doesn't know the game any more. 9/4 against Maiden winners is crazy value to my eyes. As Eddie says, Kadar could be talented and he was an expensive son of Scat Daddy. The trouble is that he floored a Gosden horse who is headed to the Zetland Stakes and that is normally a race for 2YO horses who are on the slow side to be frank about it. The multiple winners from Kadar's maiden actually numbers two and although winners are encouraging, it is essential to analyse for perspective. Both future wins came in Nursery Handicaps, with one winning from a mark of 78 and the other from a handicap rating of 73. These horses are a couple of stone short of Group 3 material and have little relevance to the Autumn Stakes. At 3/1, Kadar is being priced as if he is already a stone ahead of his 86 RPR figure. He may be that good but it's not guaranteed in the way the odds suggest. Kadar is as low as 9/4 and you can get that price on Andre Fabre's "Best 2YO", so which would you rather have? I have been saying since Persian King's first run that the Racing Post have been underrating him and I noticed that they went back and uprated his 1st run after his 2nd run and then went back to uprate his 2nd run after his 3rd run. I reckon they have him low still, on 102 but even at that he is 16 lbs higher than Kadar for now. The only horse to beat Persian King was Anodor and even though he was beaten at odds on in the Group1 Lagardere, he still recorded a personal best on RPR on 111, which is 25 lbs higher than Kadar. It really comes down to how much improvement Kadar can make against a more experienced contender whos trainer feels is capable of being competitive in next year's 2000 Guineas. Aidan's Magna Grecia earned a slightly higher figure than Kadar on his only start. He was impressive and as a 7F winner he may be more speedy than Kadar, who is also entered in the old Racing Post Trophy race. This is a different test for Magna Grecia though and I think he's awful value. Think I'll pop into the local bookies this afternoon and top up on Persian King. I feel if one horse is going to stretch away to win cosy it's him.
Kadar's trainer Karl Burke says he is concerned about quick ground for his horse. He elaborated that they pulled the colt out of the Royal Lodge because of the fast ground there and added that they would "Keep an eye on the ground" Karl Burke explained that the son of Scat Daddy had a bit of knee action and was a big, powerful, galloper. It sounds like the horse would be more at home with some cut at Donny later in the month. Aidan said that Grecia Magna had come on since his debut but added that the son of Invincible Spirit would come on again after the Autumn Stakes, begging the question if he's quite ready yet. Andre Fabre said that he won't get excited about his colt unless he wins this race and added that he won't want soft for the son of Kingman. He stated that he was encouraged by Anodor's decent effort in the Lagardere. This is my biggest bet of the season, albeit I am a small player.
Kadar HAS been pulled out. Persian King is now 5/4 favourite. There is no rule 4 on ante post bets so I have 3/1 and 9/4 intact but anyone who took 9/4 yesterday will have a rule 4 deduction because ante-post conditions end on the day before the race. If Persian King can't win this his Guineas chance is gone in my opinion. I'm hoping he can do the business now.
Many thanks. Didn't win as far as I thought he would when switched to challenge but you don't get any extra for winning a long way. I don't think Persian King learned anything in his two wins because he won so easily. O'Brien's colt may be smart in his own right as well. I think Persian King could be a Derby sort so I had a small interest at 40/1 a few weeks ago. I've done three colts in the Derby now. Quorto at 25/1, Too Darn Hot at 50/1 and Persian King at 40/1. None of them is guaranteed to get the trip but the surefire stayers normally prove too slow for Epsom. I was a bit discouraged to hear Appleby and Gosden express doubts about their colts for the Derby trip though.
It was a good day for me Ron. I did Too Darn Hot at 2/1 when the betting opened on the Dewhurst. My angle there was that the race would not stack up anywhere near as strong as the hype was suggesting. Charlie Appleby had said Quorto might not run again this season and I didn't/don't think Aidan has anything like a strong hand this season. The Stoute horse Sangarius was all hype and no substance to me. He had not acheived nearly enough to my eyes and his races were not working out at all. With Hello Youmzain winning at Maison-Laffitte at 6/1 for me it was a memorable Saturday. I had I'll Have Another at 16/1 in the Zetland and she was second to Norway, while Vis A Vis was 4th at 11/1 in the Ces, but I didn't do those two each-way, so no cigar there. Nice to have a bit of luck for a change. Back in the day it would have been thus and probably followed by but a cup of Earl Grey was all thar was on the menu
Job done, thought he was going to win easy once he overcame ballydoyle team holding him in but just done enough in the end. Be surprised if hes good enough for the Guineas in a year like this but he could have improvement in him over the winter. I was kicking myself for only doing 100 on Wednesday night, trying to play it safe incase he wasnt declared, the price was worth the risk as you say and Fabre had mentioned this race months ago.
It may subsequently prove that Persian King and Magna Grecia are two smart colts (and they did pull well clear of the others); however, I wonder if either will be on the Rowley Mile next May. The winner travelled well most of the race, seemed to handle the track fine and stayed on well to hold off the Ballydoyle colt but there was no electrifying turn of foot to suggest that he is a Classic miler. I wonder if Fabre might be looking at further with him next term and possibly end up targeting the Prix Du Jockey Club. On only his second start, the runner-up Magna Grecia could be one to keep an eye on. Although he runs in the Derrick Smith colours, he is part-owned by the Niarchos family.
