The only thing I would query about your analysis on Kew Gardens Grendel is that those races were run over a mile and he was AOB's 3rd string in both and the Derby was on Epsom's switchback course on good ground (in all 3 he wasn't ridden by Moore). Nelson was no match for Kew Gardens in 3 races at 12f and beyond and, as you say, he is now the pacemaker for Kew Gardens. Kew Gardens did win a maiden on soft ground at 2. Not much of a race but didn't seem to mind the ground. If anything I would say he has more chance on a flat track on soft, when stamina will come into play, than he would have on a sound surface. Intriguing isn't it
Salouen 80/1 with PP & Betfair 1/5 odds a place first 4. That would be my fun bet if it comes up soft I had my Virtual ante post on Enable at 3/1 (£200) To cover that my fun portfolio for the race would now be: £200 Enable to win at 3/1 £40 Waldgeist to win at 7/1 £30 Kew Gardens to win at 10/1 £20 Salouen to place in first 4 at 16/1 (1/5 of 80/1) £290 staked. Net profit if one wins would be £510, £30, £40 or £50 respectively Makes it interesting, I hope
It looks to me like Paddy Power took a punt on the weather forecast and pushed Sea Of Class out to 7's. You cannot trust these weather forecasters and it stayed dry. The going is now good with only a small amount of rain due around 1pm. She is a knocking EW bet at that price given her allowance.
Watching Saturday’s action from Longchamp, they had dolled out the track leaving a fresh strip for Sunday but the ground appeared to be riding quite dead and on some parts of the course they were clearly kicking it up like one would expect on easy ground. The forecast was for a few showers on Sunday but not enough to make it really soft. ANALYSIS: Clearly training racehorses in Japan is akin to being a politician. History shows that doing something a certain way does not work, so you keep doing it that way hoping that eventually it will work. So Clincher came over, stood in a horsebox for over four months (rather than running in any races to acclimatise), ran abysmally in an Arc trial (8 lengths last in the Prix Foy) and then goes into the main event with little chance on form. Nelson is surely here as a pacemaker as his form is not good enough and in the neighbouring stall stablemate Capri has to show marked improvement on last time (6.5 lengths fifth in the Prix Foy); however, he had been off the track for five months after winning a Group 3 at Naas. Was he on the sick list or was that the plan? There is no doubt which is the best horse in the race, although Enable comes here off an unusual preparation having missed most of the season’s big prizes injured. With the next-best horse declining a renewal after last time, the others have to hope that she has an off day or they can beat her tactically. From her good starting position, I am sure Frankie will be mindful of any efforts to box him in and stay out of trouble. The only good news for Talismanic is that his conqueror in the Prix Foy has history against him. His only Group 1 win was in the Breeders’ Cup. Defoe had a big break between May and September but may not be up to this level (no Group 1 wins) and possibly prefers small fields. Neither Neufbosc (third in the Prix Niel) nor Hunting Horn (second in the Prix Niel) look to be good enough on form. Kew Gardens would make history if victorious and has had a packed season including a course and distance win but the three year olds simply are not good enough and the French form looks suspect. Waldgeist does not look up to this given that he caught Coronet on the line at Saint Cloud and the favourite is a better filly than Coronet. Plus Foy winners have a poor recent record. Sea Of Class has done nothing wrong but her best form performance in the Yorkshire Oaks still leaves her something to find with Enable, off whom she only gets the age allowance. On a form line through Coronet (more than two lengths second at York), Sea Of Class should beat Waldgeist, although the ground is an unknown for her. Magical could be the dark horse here as she has been lightly raced and could run better than her form would suggest she is entitled to do. She may have been on the sick list between April and July with some of her stablemates. Her fourth in the Irish Champion puts her ahead of Study Of Man (fifth) but neither has been this far before. There is no reason to believe that Study Of Man is good enough to win on his recent performances and there is a question mark whether he will stay the trip. Exaggerated waited tactics may see him running on too late. In conclusion, I simply cannot see Enable getting beaten and I would not back any of the others each way as none of them represent a good near-miss win opportunity (the only reason anyone should ever bet each way, in my opinion).
I thought Waldgeist looked very impressive in the Foy and would take him to give Enable most to think about today. If it were about looks then Talismanic all day long with that beautiful white blaze. With only 3 horses officially rated higher than 120 it does indeed look a weak Arc and therefore Enable should be up to doubling up. 1. Enable 2. Waldgeist 3. Kew Gardens
Early glance at PMU International: Enable 2.5 Waldgeist 5.9 Sea Of Class 7.4 Kew Gardens 14.0 Talismanic 16.0 Patascoy 18.0 Neufbosc 18.0 Study Of Man 21.0 Cloth Of Stars 25.0 Big prices the rest ......... Capri 59.0 Defoe 52.0
If Gosden can get Enable to win a 2nd Arc after just one race back on the AW it will be a major achievement. Best of luck to him. My 10p is on Sea of Class
Best-weighted horse came second stick. The winner is different class when you think of the prep she has had. Let's see Sea Of Class come back and do it again as a 4YO next year without the 3YO allowance.
Similar to Waldgeist but I doubt whether she would have got past. Getting there is one thing, getting past another .)
Yes stick she would have been in front in another 10 metres. She is a class filly. We have to take into account though (something none of us knew) that she had problems after the Kempton run (temperature) and, according to Gosden, it has been very difficult preparation and she wasn't at her best. Even so, that was almost a Dancing Brave type win from Sea The Class. Roll on next year
I agree with stickler. Best horse came second, great ride from Doyle. Coming round the bend second last from a draw in the car park to have to wade through beaten horses. When the gap opened sea of class flew. I was amazed she placed let alone beaten by a short head. Great race though.
Gosden espouses a load of bullshit at the best of times Ron. My point isn’t taking into account which horse had the best prep and arrived there at its peak. My point is that the youngster has probably only been beaten by the draw. There is a reason for the age allowance, they will compete on more even terms next season. We hope.
It is a bit unfair on Enable to say the best horse finished second, given Enable wasn't at her best. No doubt Sea of Class is a very good filly but before we can say which is best we need to see them both at their best. Maybe at level weights next year. That would be a sight to behold
I think the best horse was 2nd today, Sea Of Class was the 86 Derby all over again. Off levels next year and both being fit will be some race and will not be a lot between them to state the obvious. With a better draw and able to slip in a few lengths behind Enable she would of passed her. I would back Sea Of Class against Enable next time if they meet. I think Enable ran right up to last years form through Cloth Of Stars line.
