Last ten years – forget last two at Chantilly – first two plus finishing positions of first three in betting if not first three home (* = favourite): 2008 1st Zarkava (1)* 2nd Youmzain (3) 3rd Soldier Of Fortune (9) 7th Duke Of Marmalade (14) 2009 1st Sea The Stars (6)* 2nd Youmzain (1) 4th Conduit (12) 6th Fame And Glory (10) 2010 1st Workforce (8) 2nd Nakayama Festa (10) 4th Behkabad (9)* 5th Fame And Glory (1) 2011 1st Danedream (2) 2nd Shareta (9) 4th So You Think (14) 7th Sarafina (13)* 2012 1st Solemia (6) 2nd Orfevre (18) 7th Camelot (5)* 2013 1st Treve (15) 2nd Orfevre (8)* 4th Kizuna (11) 2014 1st Treve (3) 2nd Flintshire (4) 3rd Taghrooda (15)* 7th Ectot (10) 2015 1st Golden Horn (14) 2nd Flintshire (11) 3rd New Bay (5) 4th Treve (8)* Just two winners with a double-digit draw – both very good horses – so being drawn out in the trees no disadvantage then...
Danedream, Treve, Zarkava and Sea The Stars. Im sure it was the draw that won it for them. 8 races is a massive sample too... You can win this race from any stall, the best horse will win, draw talk is for horses who arent good enough.
Was going to invest in Kitesurf but now considering Cloth Of Stars; 40/1 with Hills (NRMB). Good draw in stall 6 and , although 2017 event run at Chantilly, his second shows he does not mind a big field and the pace of an 'Arc'. Will consider before beddy-byes as I feel the 40/1 may not be available tomorrow. Good luck to all with any Longchamp punts over the weekend especially those visiting the track for the first time.
Ten years was as far back as the results that I was using went in terms of the draw. If Sea Of Class is as good as her dad (which I suspect she is not), she can win from 15 – Treve did it. Danedream was a 20/1 shot before the race. After she won everyone thought she was a good winner. Odds on favourite Sea The Stars would have won from anywhere as he was a proper superstar. Of course the best horse can win the race from any stall, provided that it is not sufficiently disadvantaged by the draw. Nobody would say that some of those Ballydoyle inmates beaten at Longchamp in the last ten years were not good horses but none of them won. There are a few beaten British and French classic winners as well.
i went back about 40 years and I found that the draw was massively overplayed. I believe Simon Rowlands wrote an article on it and came to a similar conclusion. Its a myth really that gets repeated every year, like fresh horse for the Aintree juvenile. Champions win the race, the draw doesnt win the race.
Surely 20/1 was a false price for Danedream; she even started at 9/1 for the 2012 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. Not that I am bothered!
Just being a good horse is a long way off being an Arc winner, Taghrooda was the best English 1m4 filly id seen before Enable, and I knew she wasnt good enough to win an Arc.
I was going to give a view on every horse but so many don’t have the form to even consider them so I have restricted my comments to 6 of the runners. However, the health warning is that you can't beat a last minute look at these horses in the paddock to see which ones look up for it. It has paid off for us the past 2 years but won't be there this year Waldgeist. Has improved a lot this year. There is no doubt in my mind that this is the best of the Andre Faber trio. But you have to wonder why he has left the other 2 in, having been comprehensively beaten by Waldgeist in the Arc trial, especially as Cloth of Stars got to within 2l of Enable last year Cloth Of Stars & Talismanic. Both improved from their trials last year so can either of them reverse the form? I doubt it but they won’t be far behind Enable. Easy winner last year and very impressive on return. Love the filly. She could romp home again, and no-one will be more pleased than me. But this is only her second run since injury. What if the stress of a hard race on what could be a sound surface is too much. What if she has a valid excuse because of the surface, which has come in for harsh criticism. At what will probably be odds on, and the form I am in lately, I couldn’t put the mockers on her with my money Kew Gardens. We all know the record of St Leger runners. But he has already won at Longchamp this year over 12f, and in a good time. AOB has 5 runners in the race, including an out and out miler, so maybe it will be set up for a fast pace with Kew Gardens staying on strongly at the finish Sea Of Class. 3yo fillies have a good record and this is a very good, improving filly. She seems to need a sound surface, which she may well get; but, although obviously had something in hand in her only 2 races over 12f, the times she has clocked up on good to firm are relatively slow. It is impossible to know if she can produce the goods in a fast run race. If she can, she has an excellent chance at the weights. At the current odds it seems a bit of a risk Conclusion. Although I hope to be cheering Enable to victory, at the odds I think I will settle for Waldgeist (7/1) and Kew Gardens (12/1 with WH)
High draws used to be poison in the Arc and I read that the track layout has not changed. I know I did Taghrooda and Kingston Hill in 2014 and they were in the coffin boxes of 15 and 20 in the 20 runner field. They both ran well despite the draws and finished 3rd and 4th. Amazingly the French 1-2, Treve and Flintshire managed to get favourable draws in trap 3 and trap 4. Golden Horn won from box 14 in his year but I think he would have won from box 30 if there had been one. From 2002 to 2014 boxes 1-6 supplied no less than 10 winners from the 13 renewals. Four of those came out of trap 6, so it can't be a bad thing for Enable to be drawn in "Lucky 6" Perhaps the more significant thing is Waldgeist, Kew Gardens and Sea Of Class are in 13, 14 and 15 respectively and they are the next three in the betting, with the next horse in the betting sitting at 25/1. I think Enable's biggest worry is me backing her at 5/1 earlier. I have had a nightmare season with ante-post bets and Enable being beaten as a short favourite on the day would simply be "Same ol'-Same ol'" for me.
Bayern Kenny, I thought you had said a "Pop up brassiere in the woods" when I first read that. That would have been something to see. Maybe one for the Cup races
Shoooorlie wouldabeen a 'pop-oot brassiere'. Anyway, the state I am usually in when leaving Longchamp, Auteuil or any other European racetrack the last thing on my mind is the contents of a women's lingerie. Possibly around 23.00 my thoughts turn to such matters!
I would tend to be laying Sea Of Class to a place at Evs. I reckon the 3YO fillies were a hotch potch bunch this season, with Laurens the gutsy star of the division. Obviously if Sea Of Class wins the Arc that star title belongs to her but beating Coronet is not exactly the toughest thing in the world to do, as she's a funny old sort who seems to be running on for a place regardless of distance, going or pace in the race. There is always a lack of tactical pace with Coronet at a vital stage of almost every race. I'll be bitterly disappointed if Enable can't give weight and a thumping to Sea Of Class, as I really feel the media have hyped the Haggas filly up purely because of the lack of strength in her age group this year at 12F. I did Cloth Of Stars at 40/1 in last year's race with no real faith that he could win it. He ran OK in Meydan when he pulled far to hard and went down to Hawkbill but both of them have been grim since and I don't see Cloth Of Stars placing this year unless there was an undisclosed problem that is now behind him. Has anyone seen any winning margin for Enable betting anywhere? I'd be interested in 3 lengths or more odds.
On the PMU, it used to be that you could always get decent odds about anything that was not French because they only ever backed their own horses. It will be just the same with the British bookies – the foreign horses are over-priced because nobody backs them. Danedream went into the Arc having won a couple of German Group 1s whereas favourite Sarafina had won the Prix de Diane and been third to Midday in the Prix Vermeille and the Aidan O’Brien trained NZ import So You Think had won the Irish Champion Stakes and the Eclipse.
40 years ago is really recent history. I am reasonably certain that 40 years ago France Galop did not have a watering system at all the big French tracks and have the taps on all the time, so some of those old races will have been run on genuine Good to Firm or Firm ground. Trempolino beat ten rivals in 1987 recording his only Group 1 success with those useless beasts Triptych, Mtoto and Reference Point behind; so little grounds for thinking the draw made a difference there. You started this argument after Study Of Man got the worst draw and Sea Of Class did not fare much better. Danedream won by five lengths easing up in a record time – she would still have won from stall 20. Sea The Stars was odds on with the British bookies and never won his races by far so he would still have won from stall 20 because he was a lot better than the rest of the field. The inescapable FACT is that only two of the last eight winners at Longchamp have been drawn high. That should have been three but nobody will ever know what spooked Orfevre in 2012 allowing Solemia to collar him on the soft ground and prevent him being Japan’s first winner. I could not care less about slow old plodders at Aintree and I would not consider the likes of Trempolino, Sagamix, Marienbard or Rail Link to be champions despite winning the Arc.
Albeit that German Group 1's are, in eighty to ninety per cent of the time, equivalent to UK, Irish and French Group 2's she did win by 5 lengths and 6 lengths. The second victory being in Germany's top all age 12 furlong race previously won by Marienbard. I backed Danedream at 33/1 immediately after the Grosser Preis von Baden and would have judged her form to suggest a quote of around 12/1. What is more interesting is that she started at 9/1 in the 'King George' on favoured ground and at her optimum distance the following year. My memory may be fading but was Danedream's time for the 'Arc' at Longchamp not a record. You will be aware of my 'liking' for all things German. All I can say is that politics have very little to do with this (unexplainable ?) adoration. It is more to do with association football, Fraus and Frauleins, beer, holidays, scenery (Oberbayern), the cities and the people. To return to the 'horses' this under rating of German race horses is not something I particularly want to end; Borgia, Shirocco, Novellist amongst others (does Manduro count) have enriched this Dummkopf! As an aside my best day at the 'Arc' was watching Montjeu cut down El Condor Pasa especially as I had lost a substantial Ante Post punt on my favourite flat race horse in the Epsom Derby. I was however present with my Mum to see Montjeu coast home in the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly. QM; I would be interested to know your judgement/guess of the final PMU odds for Enable, Sea Of Class and Waldgeist on Sunday. As before; good luck to all over the weekend!
I cashed out of Study Of Man after his poor comeback run for a 5er profit and ive not bet anything else in the race since.I wouldnt be worried about the draw for Sea Of Class, more worried about whether she is good enough to beat Enable. Enable could bounce and im not backing her at the price so will probably end up backing Sea Of Class or Waldgeist for an interest, dont think you can back anything else in the race. Very shallow Arc but two good fillies, Enable was a champion last year and she probably needs to bounce for Sea Of Class to win.
