Great effort in Germany's top all-age race at Baden-Baden (Grosser Preis von Baden) and this event has a fairly good record in producing 'Arc' winners (Marienbard and Danedream) and placed horses so Defoe is worth a thought; 40/1 with Hills seems a pretty decent price. Just an aside; Baden-Baden is a smashing wee town with a brilliant Lowenbrau 'Gastatte and other fine eateries, the track is great plus the women at the races were the most beautiful and tastefully dressed I have seen.
I said a few posts back when I last listed the betting that there are a few that I think will be no-shows. First, when asked about his Arc plans the other day, Gosden only named two: Enable and Cracksman. From this I conclude that Lah Ti Dar (no longer in the betting), Roaring Lion (was 20/1) and Stradivarius (was 25/1) are staying at home. As Cracksman’s participation is contingent on easy ground and Sea Of Class wants quick ground, one of them is definitely staying at home. The Haggas filly would have to be supplemented so you will have to wait until the Thursday before the race to see if she is added. With Roaring Lion not mentioned by his trainer, known to want quick ground and it being questionable whether he stays, I discount him. I am pretty sure that the plan for Crystal Ocean is Canada to pick up a Group 1 and then the Breeders’ Cup but the owner could tell Sir Michael otherwise and go to Paris. From a form point of view his King George second is the best form after the favourite. I can see Ballydoyle running three or four as they have no standout candidate. Kew Gardens is shortest in the betting, Forever Together looks the best bet as a three year old filly, Capri would need to turn around Prix Foy form with Waldgeist and they would probably sling in one of the many also-rans just as he has done with all the big races this term. It looks increasingly likely that there will not be a maximum field and the home team simply do not look good enough to keep the prize at home. The shortest priced of the home team, Waldgeist, beat Coronet in a photo in July and her trainer has a 10lb better filly in his yard.
Anybody who has not yet punted on Cracksman should have a gander at an article on Racing UK (www.racinguk.com).
Looking at the weather forecast for the week ahead in Paris, there does not look to be much sign of substantial rain, just a few showers on Wednesday and on Arc Sunday itself. We know that France Galop will have the taps on at Longchamp as they always do, so it will not be fast ground like Newmarket on Cambridgeshire day but it will not be truly soft either. Will that eliminate Cracksman from contention? The bookmakers seem to be taking that view as the betting on Oddschecker looked like this early Sunday morning: 5/4 Enable 5/1 Sea Of Class 9/1 Waldgeist, Cracksman 16/1 Kew Gardens 20/1 Roaring Lion, Crystal Ocean 25/1 Study Of Man, Kitesurf, Forever Together, Stradivarius, Brundtland 33/1 Lah Ti Dar, Shahnaza, Talismanic 40/1 Neufbosc, Capri, Defoe, Bateel, Hunting Horn
Im going with Sea Of Class with the weight, think she and Enable wont be far off each other. Needs entered and quick ground.
Hi, I am new here but been following Racing for more than 30 years. I am a Flat man and mostly 2YO and 3YO races, with an emphasis on the better quality racing. I did Enable for the Arc shortly before her comeback run, as I figured the odds would collapse with a win and it didn't look a race that would look very competitive come the day of the race. 5/1 seemed a price likely to be history in a hurry. One contender was ruled out today when Michael Stoute confirmed that Crystal Ocean will NOT be supplemented for the race. That looks a sensible shout given that the horse has yet to win a Group 1 and he had a lot on to reverse form with Enable, even with the pull at the weights from their previous meeting. Stoute had labelled the Gosden filly "A Freak" so it would seem he felt it unlikely his colt could turn it around in France. William Haggas stated that it was "Highly Likely" Sea Of Class will be supplemented and the owner has deep pockets which have already taken bigger knocks on apparent "Pig in a poke" purchases already this year, so the supplementary fee here will be no real dent in the overall wealth. The trouble for Sea Of Class in my opinion is that I don't think she is good enough to win the race. Wild Illusion was probably the best filly in both the Epsom and Irish Oaks but she just didn't/doesn't stay a mile and a half. Overall the 3YO fillies this year don't look a great bunch and I am confident Enable can concede the age allowance to Sea Of Class. Waldgeist was reasonably impressive last time but it didn't look a great race. Having previously been all out to beat Coronet I doubt he has improved as much as his latest win may suggest. However, it's not a great looking renewal for my money and he may place. Cracksman is more or less guaranteed to miss the race unless there is a freak rainstorm and if it does turn out that there is sufficient cut for the Champion at Newmarket, we may have seen the last of Cracksman, as he is due to go to stud after the race he won last year in grand style. I agree with the earlier opinion that Cracksman has only ever looked the "Superstar" many consider him to be, on the one occasion, where the mud seemed to suit him so well. I heard some fanciful opinions on Cracksman this year, the most outlandish of which was the notion that he was a brilliant mover, even better than Frankel himself!
Welcome Grendel. Nice first post I went with my wife and daughter last year, purely to see Enable and cheer her home. Won't be there this year, due to the price rip off,, and I have concerns about the track I agree this should really be a walk in the park for Enable. My only worry is if the ground is too firm (given she had a knee injury) and/or the state of the ground (apparently it has come in for some severe criticism). Sea of Class is a progressive 3yo and fillies do seem to go well at this time of year so, with ground in her favour and the wfa, she could be a big danger. She hasn't run a good time yet so I suspect a strong pace will be in Enable's favour. If the ground doesn't have soft in the description and there is no pace on I might get concerned. I'm trusting Frankie to do whatever is necessary I hope nothing goes wrong and she wins and wins well. If Sea of Class wins in style and in a good time I will take my hat off to her.
C'mon Herr Fabre; gimme the news on Kitesurf ...... 33/1 with Hills. Run style could easily result in a 'place' on Sunday!
I was toying with Kitesurf as an each-way play before her most recent start. She was 50/1 at that stage but I just couldn't see her winning it and decided to leave it. With Poet's Word out, Crystal Ocean not coming over and Cracksman unlikely to get his ground it makes matters a bit different now and 33/1 is definitely a possible each-way play. Skybet were going 4 places as well. Kew Gardens has his ground and no doubt Nelson will be the pacemaker again. The downsides are his long season and the general poor record of Leger winners. I am still in mourning about having him at 6/1 ante-post in the Lingfield Derby Trial and then watching him beaten at odds-on on the day by Knight To Behold. I may have a forecast bet with Enable to beat Kitesurf.
Looks like Kitesurf out of 'Arc' at today's forfeit stage. Sitting on Waldgeist (33/1 - each way), Talismanic (33/1 - each way) and Kew Gardens (20/1 - each way). Could Cloth of Stars (50/1) to do a 'Youmzain' and hit a place again?
That's a pity about Kite Surf, a few people I knew fancied her each-way. I saw Kite Surf at 14/1 with one firm this morning and you sometimes wonder if they shorten them to make it look like they are being backed, when in fact they have heard a whisper that they are coming out. It's a bit of a disappointment that the Group 1 Vermeille winner isn't in the field.
Just for the benefit of those that don't know, the current scheduled off times on Arc Sunday are as follows (UK time): 1:20 Prix Marcel Boussac 1:55 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère 2:25 Arabian World Cup (Arabians) 3:05 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 3:50 Prix de l'Opéra 4:25 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp 5:00 Prix de la Forêt 5:30 Grand Handicap des Flyers In the big race, just the twenty still remain. If you did not do one of the following, your ante post ticket can be used to light the fire: Defoe, Salouen, Capri, Way To Paris, Waldgeist, Cloth Of Stars, Talismanic, Tiberian, Clincher, Cracksman, Enable, Neufbosc, Patascoy, Kew Gardens, Study Of Man, Louis D'Or, Hunting Horn, Nelson, Magical, Sea Of Class. This must be the first time that foreign runners will at least match or be greater than the home defence. Will all five of Aidan O’Brien’s line up? Is Cracksman going to be a last minute non-runner if they do not get rain? The visitors also look to have a very strong hand in the supporting races, or perhaps that should be phrased the French look to have a poor hand.
Ron, the Prix L'Abbaye was an early race on the card up until 2015, the year Goldream won the race. AFAIK that was the first time it was run after the Arc itself. Looking back through the L'Abbaye winners, some pretty moderate sprinters have landed the race and that was part of the reason for me not touching Battaash at shortish odds this year. The Charlie Hills sprinter is very good when he's on his game and won well last season but you need to back to Lochsong in 1994 to find a winner who landed back to back wins. I went for Soldiers Call at 12/1 when I read that trainer Archie Watson was eyeing the race for his impressive Flying Childers winner. The 2YO gets 18lbs from Battaash and I backed the youngster for the Breeders Cup juvenile sprint at 8/1 in the hope that he at least runs well against his elders. With Soldiers Call holding his ground he is now 8/1 for the L'Abbaye and 6/1 for the Breeders Cup race. I just fancied trying one at a bigger price in the hope that he'll win one of the two races to show an overall profit.
Yes, he looks to have a decent chance. Has already won in France where he won in a decent time and has 8lb less to carry this time. Bataash is unbeatable when on song but he isn't always on song and I'm not an admirer of Crowley. Looks as though Harry Angel isn't going. Wouldn't surprise me to see Mabs Cross there at the finish
The Abbaye used to be the first race – I remember trekking over to the finishing post – and the Prix Du Cadran (now run on the Saturday) used to be the last. When I first went to the Arc, the first race was actually a claimer sponsored by Horse Racing Abroad to advertise their own enclosure on the course. It was not that many years ago that the Arabian Gold Cup was added – undoubtedly part of the Qatari sponsorship deal.
Obviously the money came before the draw was made... Enable got a good draw in six but Sea Of Class will need to be much better than her current form suggests from fifteen. Cracksman was the only defector. With Alex Hammond tipping Kew Gardens each way, he needs a head start. Draw: 1 Clincher, 2 Patascoy, 3 Nelson, 4 Capri, 5 Tiberian, 6 Enable, 7 Salouen, 8 Talismanic, 9 Cloth Of Stars, 10 Way To Paris, 11 Neufbosc, 12 Hunting Horn, 13 Waldgeist, 14 Kew Gardens, 15 Sea Of Class, 16 Magical, 17 Louis D’Or, 18 Defoe, 19 Study Of Man
Wm. Hills before the draw .............. Capri 50/1. Wm. Hills shortly after the draw ..... Capri 25/1. Is my aged memory fading or can I remember the order of races following the Breeders Cup principle of all roads leading to the Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe with solely a handicap following the great race. I seem to recall a pop-up brasserie in the woods before catching the 'Navette' (shuttle bus) back to Rue de Auteuil for a meal and drinks with my Mum.
Thankfully for Sea Of Class backers the race is back at Longchamp where the draw is irrelevant, especially for a hold up horse.
