I doubt Wahlberg ever watches football. He probably got an assistant or a friend to tell him who to pick.
This is my point - he openly confessed he knows nothing about the game, so why have him on in the first place? It's just padding, and Lawrenson is getting paid licence-payers money for doing basically nothing. Wahlberg had Cardiff down to win at Chelsea which is ridiculous. He also put down Wham to beat Everton at Goodison - which is equally ridi........oh, hang on.
Its a puff piece for tv. whalberg prob did 5 or 6 bits for bbc including norton or whatever. He wants to advertise his film. BBC want to look "relevant" So you get this rather than actual analysis.
In reality you don't need to know anything about football to guess a few scorelines. In fact the more you know, the more likely you are to get most wrong.
This is generally true of any expertise, which mistakes its expertise for psychic ability in predicting the future. You'd let a surgeon take out your appendix but you're not going to bet your mortgage on his predictions for the advancement of medicine in the next 20 years. Daniel Kahneman is a stats guy who won a Nobel prize for economics. In his book, "Thinking, Fast and Slow," he wrote: "Tetlock interviewed 284 people who made their living 'commenting or offering advice on political and economic trends.' He asked them to assess the probabilities that certain events would occur in the not-too-distant future, both in areas of the world in which they specialized and in regions about which they had less knowledge. Would Gorbachev be ousted in a coup? Would the United States go to war in the Persian Gulf? Which country would be the next big emerging market? In all, Tetlock gathered more than 80,000 predictions....Respondents were asked to rate the probabilities of three alternative outcomes in every case: the persistence of the status quo, more of something such as political freedom or economic growth, or less of that thing. "The results were devastating. The experts performed worse than they would have had they simply assigned equal probabilities to each of the three potential outcomes. In other words, people who spend their time, and earn their living, studying a particular topic produce poorer results than dart-throwing monkeys, who would have distributed their choices evenly over the options." Kahneman attributed this relegation zone commentary to the egos of the commentators, duped into believing their own hype. And yet we still get monkeys throwing darts at a dartboard marked Brexit.
The only footie stuff I engage with anymore is our matches and highlights of other games I'm interested in, it's always mostly the same regurgitative debates season after season so I don't bother with any other 'expert' analysis ... apart from on here
Same mate. I used to any game that was on TV and all highlights etc too but I simply don't have the interest any more. Only watch our games and our highlights, rarely watch our listen to pundits.
I only watch our games too and don't listen to pundits. I would watch more games if they were on TV... But watching a game means finding a stream on my phone, not answering any notifications on my phone, etc because I use a sandbox browser so if I step outside browser it shuts everything down. Too much hassle so will only watch our games. If I had cable I'D put other team's games on in the background while doing other things.
There's a difference between objective and subjective probability. What Kahneman has tested there is subjective probability. You're right in that it links to predicting football results which is also subjective but ask the surgeon what are the patients chances of survival and you'd get a far more accurate 'prediction' than asking him about future advancements in medicine.
Wow. My wonderful Jack Russel / Corgi cross was called Kim. Once saw off a Great Dane that came bounding towards us
My little 6lb torbie cat once chased off an Alsatian. It came trotting towards her, she stood her ground and when it go close she launched up on to two legs at the dog hissing and claws out... The dog whimpered and ran off with her following close behind. She was never in danger. This dog loved cats and lived with a couple... That's why it was coming up to greet her.
