Off Topic UK / EU Future

I do not understand your first sentence. Does it mean you agree we will be poorer?(You used a double negative)
We could argue at length about whether Osborne or the Bank of England made accurate forecasts when it was generally accepted that there was a "project fear". (Even so those predictions were really talking about post brexit UK not post referendum UK but that has been forgotten).
The issue is what forecast say now - in the cool light of day, with more data than we had in 2016 and without the distortions of an "election" to cloud matters.
If you do agree that we will be poorer then you sit alongside the vast majority of people who think that.

 

I do not know if the UK will be poorer or not, nobody knows. You are of course not allowing for the mounting problems facing the EU from within and from Trump. His aim will be to correct the present unfair tariffs, I expect him to succeed.

I accept I was more risk averse than most in my business days, thankfully. I believe I'm still capable of weighing up the risks with the potential benefits. 'The brave shall inherit the Earth'

Is that a bit delboy?

 

Sorry fake news: I was actually more inclined to take risks, not a shrinking violet.

 

Lord Owen has labelled Anna Soubry a sourpuss. It may well be an accurate description but lacks the Dacorum normally shown on these Brexit threads.

 

Anyone who has run a business will have taken risks to some extent, but to do so without having a back up plan is just plain stupid. Do I sell to someone with a poor credit rating hoping that they have just experienced a short term problem? I might decide to on balance, but ensure that I have some security against them going bust. Do I export to a foreign country with all that entails? Yes, but only if I can fix the exchange rate and have some money lodged which I have access to. Do I ditch all my suppliers because another one says he can do a better deal? No, because I would then be exposed to him increasing his prices above those I am already paying.
So far no one has dangled the chance of a better deal than the one we have currently. What on earth makes anyone believe these wonderful offers are about to pop up?

 

Of course it is a truism that nobody can know the future -but we can make educated guesses and examine forecasts and come to a likely decision.
Your "mounting problems facing the EU from within" would only be relevant if by being outside we were not affected by them. In fact the fate of the UK - in or out- will always be heavily dependant on the state of the EU.
Trump - an unknown factor - more unpredictable than anything.

 

Why do you mistakenly expect trading to cease between the UK and the EU in a no deal scenario? The UK has no free trade deal with the US but that does not prevent a huge amount of trading between us.

 

What is predictable with Trump is he means much of what he spouts. He is gunning for the EU, especially the German exports.

Negative forecasts have been wrong in the past and are likely to be wrong again. It was not long ago some on here were bragging about EU growth compared to the UK. It now seems the EU is reverting to type with only a few countries with decent growth. France is now struggling again.

 

I am quite sure that there will still be some trade between the EU countries and the UK, but it will be far more difficult. Anything that adds to the costs will make it much harder. We know that productivity in the UK is only 80% of that in France which puts the country at an immediate disadvantage, and there are others who are better than France. Paperwork to cross borders is not cheap, and delays in delivering your products means that it is longer before you see your money. As someone who did both importing and exporting I know the problems all too well. People who only see one side of the picture have a very poor understanding of the difficulties.
With regards to the US, do you really think that with his America first policy a small island is going to dictate terms?

 

Paperwork through freight forwarders need not add much cost and delays are not inevitable due to automated processes. Of course many traders are well used to trading with non EU countries and do not fear the process. My experiences with importing and exporting were much more positive as we used very experienced agents. Tariffs can be relatively small, currency variations are a much bigger problem.

I expect to greatly increase the growing exports to the US. The UK trade with the EU has been steadily declining for a number of years.

 

What is predictable about Trump is that he means NOTHING that he spouts. So far he has backtracked on almost every promise has made - although to be fair he has consistently said he will trash the world via climate change agreement reversal.

Well at least we can have confidence that we'll know if Brexit was a good idea in 50 years time (Copyright J Rees-Mogg).
Funny that somehow that got missed off the bus during the referendum.
Still, we can all be cheered up by the IMF prediction...

"
Britain’s economy will perform worse than the rest of Europe, except Italy, over the next two years as it navigates Brexit, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday. (April 2018)
"

After 2 years of self-destruction, the one clear benefit from Brexit is going to be regaining our sovereignty. No matter the price in economic terms, cost to families, jobs etc completely outweighs a) the net amount we pay to Brussels b) the new costs necessary to control the passage of goods without the EU umbrella c) the shared benefits of medical/security/ environmental standards and investment. No matter that Immigration control is completely illusory, simply because we NEED more immigrants - even if only to counterbalance the ageing population and both do the work and finance the health and social security costs of this demographic.
So , as sovereignty is the ONLY possible benefit I look forward to hearing in detail what specific laws handed down from Brussels have done so much damage to our people and our way of life, that we couldn't possibly have voted for them in our Parliament.

 

How many times has the IMF been wrong in the last few years? the answer - many times. The temporary growth boost the EU enjoyed last year has already fizzled out. It will return to its usual position of trailing the UK.

 

Any trade deal that Trump offers is to satisfy the farmers in the US. When countries see what is being proposed they say no thank you. The UK having lost its deals around the world will sign up to anything. If that is the only country that the UK has in mind to sign up with, then the situation is even more desperate than has been talked about.

 

Fox has many deals lined up, have you not read the news from China today?

 

I honestly don't think we'll import US meat. We'd lose all our EU markets and that would be an utter disaster for the farming industry. It would actually lead to closure of many farms. But the US know this so specific agri food products shouldn't feature. And my sources tell me they won't and there'll be a deal - just not the one that would be three gazillion times better than the one we have as part of the single market.

 

The only deals that eejit will have lined up will be to satisfy his recreational drug habit. And yes we all know about China - the new Foreign Secretary is managing the impossible by being a bigger clown than Boris.

 

Shouldn't civil servants use much more diplomatic language about their masters?

 

I'm not really a civil servant. I'm a junior minister.

 

How was Hunt meant to know whether his wife was Japanese or Chinese?

 

That's even worse!!!

You might end up in the tower.