Off Topic UK / EU Future

Still affirming the consequent. Sigh

 

We're in the middle of the negotiating equivalent of the Champions league final against Real Madrid and you're arguing that Mansfield Town are better equipped to do the job than Kettering

 

Matt Hancock has told the Health Select Committee that the NHS is preparing to stockpile medicines, blood products, vaccines, clinical consumables etc. in case there is no deal. For some products with a short shelf life they cannot risk them being held up at ports, so they will have to fly them in. All of this he admits has a cost implication. So at long last there is an admission that there could be delays at the ports, something that some have been very unwilling to admit. All additional costs for the country and the NHS, and as Rees-Mogg has said it could take 50 years for the country to see a real benefit.

 

Cue the shouts of project fear.

All departments are doing worse case scenario planning but it's unprecedented that they publish them. I guess it's a shot across the bows to dissenters on both sides. Personally I think the EU is desperate to avoid a no deal crash out because it would be hugely damaging to it's members - but not as damaging as to us and it isn't going to let us have everything we want. That's hardly unreasonable.

I had hoped we could stage a smooth exit (which the Implementation Period was designed to achieve) and then do all the wheeling and dealing afterwards as it would have been the scenario which caused minimum damage. It appears many in power want to drive everyone off the cliff and I can only assume it's for their own personal gain or through sheer bloody mindedness.

The EUs patience must be wearing very thin and I can see it reaching a point where it decides to take the hit anyway and just boots us out. I hope that doesn't happen because a) it will be catastrophic and b) I don't want the like of Boris and JRM to be in a position where they can, with a smidgeon of credibility, blame anyone but themselves.

 

So everyone is beavering away to consider the worst case, no deal. Raab tells us that the government will produce information over the coming six months on what companies and individuals should do to prepare for such a thing. So that could be the end of next January. What a bunch of morons we have in government when they carry on as if time is of no concern.
What is certain is that the EU will not change their major rules to suit a country that doesn't want to be a part of the union. Hunt went to Germany this week and was told that German business sees the preservation of the single market more important than loss of sales in the UK. I expect the same reaction in France.

 

Some really stark predictions coming through eh... Even Rees Smogg being clear for once..

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This is desperate scaremongering. The importation of medical supplies destined for the NHS using air freight is a well established practice, I was regularly importing medical devices this way almost 20 years ago, the pallet price difference on high value medicines would be negligible compared to the product cost. A much greater saving could be made by sourcing around the world.

I'm sure the French will purposely cause delays at the ports as they have done so in the past. Eventually they will realise they are also damaging their own exporters.

 

Once German businesses are affected by Brexit, in addition to the justified realignment of tariffs the EU will have with the US, they will start squealing like stuck pigs.

This doom mongering is reminiscent of the time the UK crashed out of the ERM, it led to 20 years of sustained growth well outperforming the rest of the EU.

 

If we drop out of Euratom in a no deal scenario, we’ll lose access to the isotopes used in chemo therapy, that not scare mongering, it’s just a simple fact.

Neither is the stockpiling of medicines, you’re not quite grasping the level of delay that there’ll be on day 1 of ‘freedom’ are you?

 

I am reasonably sure that you have admitted that there may be some negative consequences for British businesses - yet are prepared to live with those. Why should German businesses be any different ? Why do only Europeans 'squeal like stuck pigs' ? It may just be that most Europeans just want an end to this farce by now and will be glad to see the back of the UK. As Shakespeare said 'Wait not upon the order of thy going but go'.

 

That’s simply yet more deluded rhetoric though, the German car industry were supposed to be making this the easiest deal in history, they were going to drive Merkel to ring us the day after the vote, begging for a deal apparently - according to that suit full of nothing Davis.

If VAG lost around 25% of its U.K. volume due to post Brexit tariffs then that would account for approx 1% of its annual production. They’re also less bothered about our market at present due to the crashed pound btw, which has taken around 14% out of their margin.

This is nothing like the ERM situation, this is unpicking of over 40 years of regulatory & operational alignment, together with losing frictionless trade and the logistical nightmare that’ll bring with it.

You keep dumbing it down though, as you can hardly admit the truth can you?

 

I have never denied short term problems with Brexit especially with the EU's 'teach you a lesson' attitude. I hope Trump ramps up the pressure on the EU over the imbalance of tariffs once we leave the EU.

So both you and I look forward to the UK leaving the EU a.s.a.p.

 

Well put.... all the so called ease Brexiters talk about just isn't there in just about every case.... and we were called remoanoers......

 

Likely tariffs are much lower than the effects of currency fluctuations which industries regularly deal with. Obviously some companies with be affected more than others, they should have already planned for a no deal situation. Over 80% of UK businesses have no dealings with the EU, many could benefit with a relaxation of red tape and free trade with non EU countries.

 

and how long will that take to sort???? .. and pretty clear that in the business world today we are unlikely to get better trade deals ANYWHERE.....

 

Do you have the necessary business experience to qualify that negative assessment?

 

"Desperate scaremongering". You do realise that if what you call it is correct, then your very own government is the one doing it. This is not an opinion, but a report of what was told to a Commons Select Committee. Raab was at it as well yesterday, indicating that stockpiling food could also be required.
We are used to you telling us that we are wrong and you know better. It seems that you must start sending off those e-mails soon to Government ministers to tell them that they are wrong also.

 

That’s another completely misleading and therefore disingenuous stat though.

As it completely ignores the British based businesses that supply goods or services to companies who then produce goods for export. So everything from component manufacturers to IT suppliers, to accountants, solicitors, cleaning contractors, through to the local butty van.

In addition the suggestion that a company that currently doesn’t export to Europe when there’s frictionless trade in place, will somehow magically post Brexit then export to far flung markets around the globe, is fanciful nonsense, backed up by literally nothing.

 

So May is taking over personal control of the talks. I think she did that with the General Election last year, so what could go wrong?

 

If we leave the EU without a deal, then we’ll also leave behind the 53 trade deals with non EU countries that we currently have via the EU.

Why would anyone with even the most modest business acumen, think for one minute that a country with a market of 60m could negotiate a better trade deal than a trading bloc that offers 550m potential consumers?

We’ll have to replicate all of those current deals before we can even claim to have achieved parity with our current ‘Worldwide’ position.