Off Topic UK / EU Future

That is why I prefer to have my wine now. It is no use waiting for this rabble to sort themselves out.

 

That's exactly why I just assumed England would lose the other night!

 

In the event of a hard Brexit with no deal for the border polls have shown (polls from LucidTalk) that 48% of the Ulster electorate would support reunification with the Republic, and consequent EU. membership, and 45% would support staying in the UK. Small margins I know, with the usual margin for error found in such polls, but, under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, the UK. government is legally obliged to hold a referendum on Irish reunification if the polls show support for one. Could this be a way out for Scotland, by joining such a unification ? An EU. state can grow within the EU. as the German reunification proved - so an Irish Reunification + Scotland is a possibility.

 

The Republic doesn't necessarily support reunification. Can't afford it for starters and why should it pay to clean up our mess?

 

As I understand the GFA, for a poll to be held it has to be called in both the south and the north at the same time. The government in the south has said they will not hold one at present. Why should they take on the subsidies that flow from London at present?

 

Exactly - a ridiculous number of jobs in NI are public sector. I don't know the exact number but it's hugely disproportionate.
I guess a fair few Brexiters think the EU should pay for it - and more than a few are still singing No Surrender 20 years after we pretty much did exactly that

 

If the Irish Government does not want one then they may be at odds with their electorate Frenchie. The last poll on this - 29th December 2017 showed that support in the Republic has increased, with 6 out of 10 people saying they wanted a single Irish state, even if it costs taxpayers an extra € 9 Billion a year. This 60% was up from the 50% in a similar survey in March. This is taken from the Irish Times from today. If a majority on both sides of the border want it then it may well happen. What kind of influence would this have on Scotland ?

 

It would be comedy gold if it wasn't so damned tragic.

 

Rose tinted specs from my Irish brethren Cologne - I don't know many who want it when push comes to shove. The cost both economically and politically is too much for them to bear. That said of course there'll be plenty who do want it. I suspect we won't find out!

 

I think the government in the south is quite busy enough at present making sure that the right conditions exist to welcome the companies leaving the UK. Largest ever investment from Tim Martin's Wetherspoon chain in Dublin, Moggy moving part of his companies investment arm to Ireland, and now the UK service industry is outside of a deal, one can expect to see more of them heading west. Once their economy grows even more, then we might see some movement, but as the north cannot even agree a government able to call an election, I suspect it is someway down the line.

 

Rose tinted specs can take you a long way Dan. The reunification of Germany did not make economic sense at the time either. These things happen by striking while the iron is hot not waiting until favourable economic conditions arise - the latter will follow.

 

Huge difference in size between West Germany and Eire. Plenty of money in the piggy bank in Berlin, but not so much in Dublin. One day I hope it happens as I believe in countries coming together rather than falling apart.

 

A laughable response-about as much substance as a Farage promise

 

I don't think the difference in size matters much Frenchie - the piggy bank in Berlin didn't actually do anything here. They simply introduced a 'solidarity tax' to cover it - I've been paying this for the last 28 years Actually I don't think the reunification of Germany has been an unqualified success but that's a subject for elsewhere.

 

I also like pulling things together rather than taking them apart (I think you knew that) but I think this may be a bridge too far. Too much dissent and resentment on both sides to ever make it truly work. But....

 

My point all along is that as long as the Uk promises to uphold the Good Friday agreement then we can only leave the EU with an NI border that is seamless I. E. Maintains the 4 freedoms. I didn’t invent this scenario-the politicians did. The fact that NI voted in the referendum to STAY in the EU simply confirms the impossibility of the UK leaving in a way the ‘hard’ Brexiteers wish. How the DUP square all this only they can explain, but as their politics is as opaque as Loch Ness then good luck to anyone trying to negotiate with them. Oh I forgot the UK govt. depends on them. You couldn’t make it up.
All the criticism of the EU negotiating position is a smokescreen for the total failure of the ‘hard’ Brexiteers to come up with any credible solutions whatsoever.

 

No one has come up with a solution apart from the EU, but having agreed to it there was then a change of heart by the UK government.

You can see that the hard Brexiteers always need someone else to blame. First it was the EU, now it is the PM.

 

I have to admit though that a unified Ireland would solve the specific problem that the U.K. has, except that Gibraltar is also unresolved.

 

News from Belfast shows that there are still a number of dissident people around who hate the GFA. Any sign that this could be dismantled and they will be creating havoc again. There was considerable progress in many ways when Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness buried their differences and worked together for the good of everyone. Despite them being poles apart politically, they showed just how common sense is better than party dogma.

 

The rabid ‘leave at any cost’ Brexiteers, have continually tried to dismiss the issue of the Irish border as being somehow inconsequential, mere trivia, even painting it as a supposed ‘red herring’ being supposedly used as a tool to keep us in the EU.

The simple reality is that they’ve simply not been able to come up with a credible solution for how their version of what Brexit should look like i.e. a ‘no deal’ crash out, can deal with this problem without the imposition of a hard border.

The withdrawal bill now excludes the option of that from the table, not that it would have been politically acceptable anyway. So if they want a no deal exit, and thus us reverting to WTO rules, then what’s their solution? As without a hard border we’d be in breach of WTO rules.

The reality is that a no deal Brexit is dead, it was never a credible option anyway, and no amount of bluster from Rees Mogg can get past the simple fact, that the only possible solution i.e. a hard border is politically unacceptable and now legally unacceptable due to the withdrawal bill.

We either agree some form of Customs Union with the EU or we stay in the Customs Union, that’s literally it. The lack of honesty around this issue is ridiculous, May is trying to fudge it and Rees Mogg et al are either engaged in some form of extreme self delusion or they’re being completely disingenuous.