Off Topic UK / EU Future

The situation is that when you have a FPTP system then, for some reason, a majority is not there then problems can arise. What I meant earlier by 'growing into PR', was not the best choice of words - what is meant is that coalition government takes a bit of getting used to. It is obvious to us which parties are open to coalition to us and which aren't - we have those questionnaires before the election - though I agree, asking all our supporters is not possible though you get ideas on this whilst canvassing. Going into a coalition blind is a dangerous thing to do - without any research beforehand. Cases have been given on here about where coalitions either didn't work, or looked shaky - but those are only a few cases. Germany has a slight problem with this now, but it should not be forgotten that Germany has also had nothing but coalition governments since the 70s and, by and large, it has worked and so a few problems now don't nullify that. Coalitions have been the norm throughout Europe for many many years. The advantage of them, for me, is that they have the partial support of the majority of the population whereas FPTP has the full support of a minority - which is better ?

 

Set up a hypothesis (if you are...), then speculate what your hypothesized person will do, then assume their tactical vote will overrule their blind party loyalty...and conclude from that that PR therefore allows everyone to vote according to their conscience, regardless of what the options actually are. I think this is why I don't often enter debates on these threads.

 

What you do not appear ready to concede Theo, is that what matters is not votes but rather who wins the seat in question. That being the case if my party has no chance of winning whatsoever then I will use my vote for my second or third choice if that will stop my least favourite party from getting it. I lived in the south west of England for many years, canvassed for Labour there, and heard the same old story from so many people ie. a Labour vote was a wasted vote and so people voted Liberal instead. Other combinations would exist in other areas. I am not saying that all people do this - but a sizeable number of people do use their votes primarily to stop someone getting in, rather than voting for who they really believe in. This is a big challenge for the Green Party - why should I vote for them if they are only going to get 3% where I live when I can use my vote for Labour instead ? Under PR. every vote counts, even my own. If I vote for a losing candidate in a constituency under FPTP then it disappears down the drain - and votes disappearing down drains is not my idea of democracy.

 

There are a few seats - probably not that many in truth where tactical voting may change the outcome. So instead of people voting positively for what they want, they vote negatively to stop someone else. Thankfully the margins between parties do not make that way of voting productive except in a few areas. I would much rather vote for what I believe and they win or don't - at least I was true to my self. If everybody adopted tactical voting all you would end up with is a bunch of MPs nobody wants but who are seen to be the least bad by some. Horrible. What a way to live a life - fear of what you don't like instead of a positive outlook.
With PR you still see tactical voting of course but it is slightly more complicated.
Worse than that you never get the party you want able to implement the policy they stood for as it is all compromise. Like a committte, and we know the definition of a camel being a horse designed by a committee.
You would probably also never get a radical government able to implement a difficult reform programme that was not necessarily "popular" even if necessary. Many people believe the Conservative failure to sort out the mess left by Brown was because they were held back by the LibDems. Sometimes tough medicine is needed and better to be done quickly not dragged out over years because of "reluctant "partners.

 

Well that's interesting.
The only contributor prepared to outline any benefits of leaving is not. As far as I can tell someone in favour of leaving.
So, either nobody on this thread or associated threads wants us to
Leave the EU or they cannot see any benefits from the UK leaving.

 

There is certainly a majority of people who are prepared to share their thoughts on this forum who cannot see any benefit from leaving the EU. It does create a situation where as you will have read above, the actual title of the thread gets forgotten, and it wanders into associated subjects. There is little that one can do to have a different debate if those who feel that they can see advantages of leaving do not wish to make a statement. Clearly we are all different, from different backgrounds, and had different experiences that have influenced our opinions. There are many issues that can be explored that are a result of leaving, but get into details and it becomes technical, whereas some just have a gut feeling that they should depart and do not feel they wish to go further.

 

There are clearly many benefits in the UK leaving the EU which is why nearly 18 million voted for it. I am looking forward to the UK regaining rights which most countries absolutely take for granted.

First sovereignty, the UK Parliament and courts should have the final say on most issues. This does not preclude using agreed international arbitrators for some trading arrangements. In disputes with EU member countries this cannot be the ECJ, but a neutral court.

I expect the UK to regain control of it's borders with the UK government of the day deciding on the process of admitting potential migrants. At the moment there is uncontrolled immigration which takes no consideration of the negative impact caused.

The EU is a protectionist organisation. It is extremely ponderous in securing trade deals, once the UK returns to being an independent country it will be able to agree trade deals without asking the opinions of 27 other governments. Trump is gunning for the EU, especially the high level of German exports entering the US on perceived unfair trading tariffs. Once the UK leaves he will step up his trade war whilst giving the UK preferential treatment.

Finally the UK is escaping an organisation that is fraught with conflict amongst its members, this angst looks most likely to increase. Politically many EU members have moved to the far right due to Merkel's disastrous immigration policies. Two of the main countries, Germany and Italy, have fragile governments. The EU looks in even more trouble than during the Greek crisis. If the UK leaves with no deal so no payments are made the fan will be well and truly hit.

 

Same old BS.
Sovereignty? Given that the UK was instrumental in writing the vast majority of the laws, we already had it.
Border control? Yup, had that too only then HS and clandestine brexshitter theresa may somehow failed to implement the measures at her disposal.
Protectionist? Offered advantages to its members for sure and many non EU nations used our somewhat different laws to set up a manufacturing and trading base within the EU. Leave the club, lose the perks. Why would anyone expect different? Doofus 45 is gunning for Canada, Japan... well everyone because he's a fascist bully intent on a divide and conquer policy.
Fraught with dialogue, you mean. There are lots of differing opinions within the EU from various MEPs, all democratically elected (or did nazinige just buy his way in?) and I can see that the EU is not without its problems. But you effect change from within - you don't leave the club and still expect to have a say. And we're leaving just as the most isolationist U.S. government since WW2 comes to power....

There is NO benefit to the UK in any of this, not in your terms. None.
It's madness. Sheer f*****g lunacy. That's what it is.

 

I'm not sure any of the majority that voted for Brexit would be convinced by your rant to repent and see the error of their ways.

 

Your numbers keep going up - if you are rounding then 17.4 m is closer to 17m. I would hazard a guess that a diet of 40 years of anti EU propaganda in the red tops accounted for many of those millions - they did not vote for "benefits" of leaving but to get out of somewhere that they believed told them how straight their cucumbers and bananas should be. The better educated you were the more likely to vote remain.
For people who perceived sovereignty and immigration as a problem or benefit of leaving fair enough. Personally I do not know of any example how we suffered through loss of sovereignty. Immigration - had it really been a problem we could have cut non-EU immigration - we didn't because migrants have massively helped our economy grow.
How much more protectionist is the EU than other large blocks? If they are really bad how does getting on the wrong side of it help us? Ponderous ? - probably given 28 countries were involved but just how fast would you want trade deals to be done? Given that the EU had scores of done deals I am sure others were of lesser importance. If you believe Trump will be good for us then OK - but by the time we are out of the EU he will be gone.
The EU is no more likely to break up (much less in my opinion) that the UK is as a result of brexit.
The UK will pay past debts to the EU whatever deal is done or not. We abide by international law. Anyway the break up of the EU would cause a worldwide economic recession - do you see that as a benefit of brexit?
I have a lot of criticisms of the EU - but fundamentally it was good for us - especially economically taking us from being the sick man of Europe in the 70s to being the second strongest. Still that trend will now reverse.

 

When I started this thread I hoped it would not be another just debating what has already happened. The pros and cons of brexit have been the subject of many other threads. I was naive though because until a deal is done or not done and we actually leave it is difficult not to re-run the referendum arguments. I do not think we can moan too much that the debate is one sided though because most of the supporters of both brexit and the Conservatives no longer post here. That is why despite some people's views I value SH on here as the one person who stands up against the many.
I would still have preferred though that this thread focussed more on what sort of brexit we go for. What realistically could be achieved? It is so easy to criticise the Tories for their abysmal handling of brexit. Personally I do not see that any other party could have done better. Not only is there not a good deal to be done but not one party is in favour of brexit so how could they realistically find a good one? I am still split between wanting a) a Norway deal which gives us as many of the benefits as possible even if they are less than we had and b) a total split to put us back where we were in 1975 and forge a future from there however much worse it makes us.

 

The question is not just what type of Brexit people want but also how we see our country in 10-20 years time. Many of the Brexiters appear to have an idea of Britain as a thriving off shore island a little bit similar to the way Singapore is to Asia. It can chase TTIP style deals with other countries, become a type of European tax haven, and turn Britain into a low wage bargain basement country which is 'Business Friendly', we could also open up our arms to gene manipulated goods from the USA. and subsequently become fracking capital of the World - once free of all those nasty EU. regulations. On the other hand what could a Corbyn led Brexit be like ? - somewhat different to the nightmare I have described I suspect.

 

Just showing up the lies for what they are. I can lead the ass to water but I am not able to make it drink. You spouted on about "many advantages" of leaving the EU, suggested four of which all have been shown not to be an advantage or were already available for a long while. Your argument is pathetic.

 

Up to now the Brexit campaign has been dominated by right wingers. Yet the paradox is this - they are campaigning to leave an institution where two thirds of all national parliaments are classed as conservative. An institution which has neo liberalism enshrined into its foundation. We need to ask - Is leaving the EU. an end in itself, or the first step towards a different economic model ? If so could Brexit means Brexit end up as Lexit ? ie. a left wing Brexit. Could leaving the EU. be a necessary condition for a left government to be able to do what a left wing government should be doing ? Namely to restore something approximating the post war Keynesian system - a system that worked. Britain was the first country to embrace the neo liberalistic model - could it now be the first to lead the way out of it ? For me this is the only glimmer of hope associated with Brexit.

 

After the comments of Jacob Rees-Mogg attempting to tell the government what to do and threatening May, there was a pointer as to what would happen if he brought her down. Yesterday afternoon when she was making her statement on the EU meeting, people who have serious misgivings about where she is taking the country gave her support. Should there be a leadership election the fringe group led by JR-M would not have the numbers to win. Nothing has changed since John Major became so heartily sick of the constant whining of the right wing that he resigned and called a leadership election, which he won comfortably because the moderates have always been the majority. The problem now is that no leadership election, or even a general election is possible because of time. Just imagine what would be the reaction to another election campaign.

We also watched May tying herself in knots trying to say something, but say nothing at the same time. All will be peace and harmony after the meeting on Friday was her main message. We will wait and see, but in normal political cycles a minority government would be looking to throw some goodies at the population, and call an election. That option no longer exists, so JR-M and his band will have to put a sock in it, or see the end of anything that even looks like Brexit.

 

We are supposed to be leaving the EU next March, but as someone who did trade inside and outside the EU the following questions would be vital for me to have answers to now, not in a month or twos time, but now. The list has been compiled by the British Chamber of Commerce, but I would be tearing my hair out by now not knowing what is going to happen.

BUSINESS TRAVEL

Will business travel between the UK and the EU involve further administration, costs or visas?

STAFF TRANSFERS

Will my business be able to move skilled staff members between the UK and the EU in future?

HORIZON 2020

Will UK firms and institutions be able to participate in European R&D projects after 2020?

EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK

Will UK projects be eligible for support from the EIB after 2020?

ESIF FUNDS UK REPLACEMENT

How will the UK replacement for EU Funds work, and how can my company access opportunities?

IMPORT VAT

Will I need to pay VAT on goods at point of import? Will I be able to use postponed accounting or have access to more generous deferment account terms to offset the cash-flow issues?

SERVICES VAT

Will I need to become VAT-registered in every EU member state where my firm has clients?

REGULATORY AGENCIES

Which regulator will be overseeing my business in the future, and what rules do I need to follow? Is the UK government going to charge businesses for the creation of new regulatory agencies in the UK?

PRODUCT TESTING

Will conformity assessments on products conducted by a UK body will continue to be sufficient for the product to be sold on the EU market?

DISPUTE RESOLUTION

What dispute resolution and means of redress will be available to my business in the future?

MOBILE ROAMING

Will my business have to pay mobile roaming charges in the EU after Brexit?

CUSTOMER DATA

Will my business continue to be able to hold and transfer data and personal information without any interruptions after we have left the EU?

TARIFFS

Will I be able to continue trading without tariffs with the EU in the future?

RULES OF ORIGIN

What rules of origin will I need to comply with once the UK has left the EU? Will I be able to UK and EU content to be counted as single origin, both when trading with the EU and with third countries?

CONTINUITY OF EU FTAS

Will my company still have access to markets on the same terms as now once we have left the European Union?

BUSINESS ENGAGEMENT STRUCTURE

How will my business be able to contribute directly to future trade negotiations?

AVIATION

Will I still be able to fly people and/or goods between the UK and the EU after Brexit day – or could travel be disrupted?

CUSTOMS

Will my goods be subject to new customs rules, procedures and inspections at the UK or EU border in future? Could my shipments be held up and delayed?

INSPECTIONS

Will there be new health or safety-related inspections at the UK-EU border that my company will need to deal with?

DECLARATIONS

Will I need to do additional customs-related paperwork, including import and export declarations, when trading with the EU?

TRUSTED TRADER SCHEMES

Will my business be able to become a ‘trusted trader’ to move quickly through borders in future – and what will the process be?

IRELAND

What, if any, procedures will my company face trading cross-border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland?

Sorry that it is such a long post, but these are questions that cannot wait to be answered any longer.

 

That's exactly what I was interested in. The deed is more or less done but where do we go from here. You outline two potential ways forward and there must be dozens more - what exactly can we hope for or dream of?

 

You need to work on your social skills, your point of view would come across better without the name calling.

 

Ha ha. Now you throw up a nightmare future. Left wing dominated; no doubt unions again shackling the working man as they used to do; spending money on everyone who "needs" something and economically we are in stagflation and debt - once more the sick man o f Europe. Please not that.

 

TM is hopeless. Is there another Tory who is remotely better though? Likewise Labour and the Lib Dems. Why could Sturgeon not have been English?