Off Topic UK / EU Future

Basically we're cancelling our membership of the golf club but somehow expect to play golf when we like for no green fees and keep our parking space by the clubhouse entrance.

 

Spot on.......

 

Pity the members keep fighting with each other and the Germans grab all the buggies for themselves. The Greek members have to use the back door, second rate artisans.

 

.and the Brits think they deserve special all-hours access

 

We have seen how despite protests from Trump, Harley-Davidson have simply said we can manufacture outside the USA to get around the burden of increased costs brought about by his policies. This has many similarities to the warnings coming from the manufacturing industries in the UK who are facing increased costs if we leave the customs union and single market. Relocation to any other country is good for their economy and not so good for ours. "Friction less trade as possible" is becoming a well worn expression, but the sting is in the tail, "as possible". The reality is that no business leader knows what this means. Without certainty they will continue to make plans to move.

 

As our cousins on the continent are unable to solve their own huge unemployment problems it is nice to be able to assist with a few jobs. The UK continues to enjoy record employment numbers as it finds creating jobs easy due to its sensible industrial relations policies.

 

I was reading how Rotterdam is setting aside a complete day to test out the alterations they are being forced to make as the UK becomes a third country. All lorries will have to go through special channels to reach the designated lorry parks. The trial will focus on the new customs checks, how long it will take to process a cargo, and what tailbacks will be produced onto the access roads to the port. As the port authority says, they wish to be well prepared, and make sure that they have done all that is needed, or learn what could be better. The only planning I have seen in the UK was an announcement that operation stack on the motorways will be handled differently, with one carriageway closed, and miles of contraflow operating in the other one.

 

How long does it take to set up alterations like that? Clearly Rotterdam have done it in months. So given there is a 21 month period after 29th March next year I think that ought to be plenty of time to sort out what needs to be done. Anything before then could be seen to be a total waste of time and money.
I am not sure why everything the UK does is viewed as wrong and everything the EU does is right. Sometimes a little bit of positive thought goes a long way.

 

At some stage those that preferred the UK to stay in the EU must surely accept the decision of the referendum and support our government's efforts to achieve the best possible outcome. The effect of constantly knocking the UK only encourages the EU to make things more difficult. The two sides of the debate on Brexit will take much longer to unite whilst the desperate search for nuggets of negativity in the UK'a approach goes on.

 

It will be alright on the night approach? Where will be the lanes set out in Dover? Where will the lorry parks be located? What disruption to traffic will be caused? Why did Rotterdam start reorganising the lorry parks a year ago? Why has that port taken on and is training customs officers?
Have you seen the answers to these questions regarding the UK, because I haven't. I would much rather know that a plan was made, a trial was undertaken, and the problems sorted before the day. Do not forget that if there is no deal there is no transition period. There are six working weeks for the government to sort out what they want and have it agreed by the EU.

 

I disagree. I want us to be in the EU and would support anything that reversed the result of the referendum. However I am also realistic and know that will not happen so in that sense I "accept" the result - as I do that daylight comes every morning. I do not believe there is a best possible outcome though. Most remainers and many brexiters would see the Norway model as the best possible outcome - but hard line brexiters do not. Perhaps they are the ones who need to accept that brexit only won by a slender margin and accpet a Norway model and encourage TM to get it. Don't fancy that one?
I don't think anything will make the negotiations easier or more difficult. The EU was always going to make it as hard as they could to discourage others - anyone who thought -or thinks - there is a nice bunch of EU people about to give us a "best" outcome are really optimistic.

 

Did you not read my post. You said Rotterdam have sorted things in a few months - there are still two and a half years before the transition period ends. How is that an alright on the night approach. What would you have - that the UK waste time and money preparing for each possible outcome and then bin those not needed? By around October we should have a pretty good idea of how things are going to turn out - that is when serious preparations can begin. If we end up with a NOrway style model things will remain much as they are now.
If and when all the things you mention are known to be needed we will have two years to get there. Do you or I have an inside knowledge of the actual preparations that have been considered? If there is no deal, queues at ports will be inevitable and creating a few car parks and so on will be the least of our worries.

 

One other factor you overlook is that if the government started making overt preparations in case there is no deal you and many others would accuse them of having that as their desired objective. They cannot win either way.
I am amused at the amount people slag off the Tories for their brexit mess - does anyone believe that Labour would have made a better job of it? They are just as split and would have needed the SNP to get anything through - which would have meant no deal anyway as the SNP would not support brexit in any guise.

 

Where did I say that Rotterdam had sorted things out in a few months? Rotterdam is taking May at her word, no CU, no SM and making preparations. I agree that Labour would have been in a mess, but they are not having to deal with it.

 

Your post #227 suggested Rotterdam had made due preparations - and they have not had years so logically you meant they had done it in months. If not what did you mean? If they do not need years why do we?

 

Sorry, but they started this well over a year ago. Everything you are saying assumes there will be a deal, which seems likely as the consequences would harm both the UK and the EU. However, if there is not one, which is the preferred option of some, then you will have five months only to sort a hundred and one things out.

 

I love the way people criticise the brexit process as if they had a clue what is involved. I am amazed we have got this far. The result was flawed - it asked us to create something that nobody knew what it was and to do so with a government that campaigned against it. The EU were always going to throw obstacles in the way and derail as much as they could. Do not blame any political party for trying to achieve the impossible - blame the British people. I do understand some people when they are angry just have to lay blame somewhere and shout and moan and criticise everything - but is it rational. Of course not.
If anybody at all - brexiter or remainer can state what should have been done and when and how then I would love to hear it.

1 Walking away with no deal - would have only suited hard brexiters
2 Staying in the CU and SM akin to Norway would no tlook like brexit even happened - except that we would no longer have a vote.
3 The EU made clear there could be no access to the CU and SM without meeting the four pillars
4 The EU do not want a border in Ireland

Just what deal do you see that was remotely possible that would have suited many people? None. So why the surprise and shock?

 

Well over a year - really - was that before we even triggered Article 50?
You incorrectly infer there will be a deal. No deal is one of a range of possibilities. The government recognise that and unless you have insider knowledge you have no idea what plans they have. The fact that they have not spend money in public is not proof. As I say, first spending money on each possible outcome would be stupid and secondly preparing for no deal would tell everybody that is what the government expects. It is easy for the individual 27 nations to make preparations as nobody will accuse them of having decided anything.

 

There has to be a best possible outcome, whatever it is, at the time. I don't agree on your 'slender margin' option. It was made perfectly clear by all sides prior to the referendum what Brexit would look like, exactly my preferred options. Agreed it was always going to be extremely difficult but the lack of a majority and the corrosive opposition within the UK makes their job much easier.

 

You keep denying that the Norway model - and Canada and Iceland and Switzerland which are all quasi EU models were set out as likely outcomes for brexit. Sorry - but they were and many people who voted brexit will have expected one of those..
It is then just bad luck because 48% voted against brexit and they are as entitled as brexiters to go for what they want as a best option. I suspect the NOrway model would win if there were a ballot on which model was "best". TM's route would certainly not be most popular.