Just found this: On-the-day recontact poll shows YouGov's final figures as Remain 52% and Leave 48% So even an exit poll thought remain had won. Makes the idea that you could trust a poll today even less likely
Yes sadly I find his whole style as divisive... winners and losers, right and wrong, etc.... The country is divided, our own political parties are divided... so what triumphalism is to be found in such a mentality?? We have to find a way forward that is best for the country as a whole.....
Any suggestions? To me this is an impossible one. You either are in the EU - or out. There is no single form of "out" that suits me. Therefore I am a loser. Pretending anything else is just being like an ostrich.
Of course you are right about the polls at the time of the referendum. When we had the GE only one predicted that the government would lose the majority it held. Why did they get it right and the others got it wrong again? Because they chose to use a completely different form of modelling. There was a lot of interesting discussion about their model and the traditional ones before the election, with some other pollsters saying it was too complex. I believe that many of the pollsters have looked and learned something from that, so polls maybe are better able to predict, but that will only be shown in the future. I did say that I would want to see other polls confirming a trend, I would never take a single one as proof. Whatever the polls say of course will only have a marginal effect on the whole sorry business. Tomorrow trade organizations from some of the largest foreign investors in the UK are going to Westminster to confirm what companies like Airbus have been saying. Sort it out in the next couple of months or else. Represented at that meeting will be Nissan, a company that has such a heavy presence in the north east, with voters who believed that the company could not move. If the workers of Airbus are getting worried, it has been well reported that Nissan employees are wondering what they may have voted for. Despite what some believe, it is business that will have a large influence on the outcome. I am sure that when you were in business, like me you would look for trends as to how my company would be effected by government, costs, confidence, good or bad. We see that there is no way forward, and the only way out is for a major U-turn for the government. How they can dress that up remains to be seen.
Well I think the whole thing is smoke and mirrors...... and really now hijacked by the Tory right..... so that any compromise is unacceptable signed An Ostrich
On the one hand you are right Leo - you are either 'in' or 'out'. However, London remains only 2 hours train journey from Brussels and that is not going to change, unless the US. Navy tows us away. Countries like France and Belgium are going to remain our closest neighbours whatever happens, and it is imperative that we have good relations to them - they are always going to be more important for Britain's future than Australia, Canada or the USA. It is not only important that we heal the divisions which have ripped us apart within the UK. but also that we find a way of leaving the EU. whilst remaining 'European', which we are, and always will be. People are genuinely hurt in Europe by what we have done, and most of the people who I talk to do not understand it.
I can certainly confirm your last sentence cologne. As my learned non party political neighbour says, why would someone cut off their foot so that they walk with a limp, in the hope that others will come to their aid. The UK had so many special deals that didn't apply to other countries, but still that was not enough for them in his view. Certainly he is saddened to read about some people unable to share, but he believes in nations working together to improve the world, not people trying to just keep grabbing more for there own use at the expense of others.
There are many on the continent that have little or no understanding of why 17.5 million Brits would vote to leave the EU. Your neighbour should take notice of the massive disagreements currently raging between EU member nations over immigration. Has he not seen reports of insults trading between Italy and France at the moment? It would help if you told him many districts in the UK have changed dramatically due to the uncontrolled immigration. Most in the U.K. are eurosceptic and want powers returned from Brussels, he should also understand that view is rife amongst the large percentage of the public in France. If he is happy to live under the control of a superstate dominated by Germany that is his choice. The British public have a well documented history of opposing this.
Giving away too much here SH?? and the use of Dramatically? Rather an emotive term? Quite clearly the demographics of our towns and cities have changed through centuries.... nothing to do with the EU..... There are parts of Leeds and Bradford for example that were the Jewish, Polish and German quarters. There is even a chapel for Huguenots in Canterbury Cathedral. We used to have a pretty good record at helping people suffering from persecution... and who are WE anyway?? Let's face it you wouldn't be eating your strawberries if it wasn't for the Poles and others who pick them because the locals WON'Tdo it. Or having as you put it something like 'a pretty Spanish nurse' give your your bed bath in hospital... I could go on.... and all for some spurious free market philosophy etc etc I think we are such a nation of hypocrites...
the only part of this which has any validity is your statement that some districts of the UK. have changed dramatically. However - many had changed anyway. During the years of Thatcher many industrial areas of England became ghost towns - Liverpool alone lost 200,000 people according to the census reports up to 1990. They firstly became dangerously underpopulated (this applies to most towns in the north) and then immigration breathed new life into them. The same applies in parts of East London - get off the train at Upton Park and look around you, you could be in Bangla Desh - but what was it like before ? One of the most depressed areas of Britain - and far more dangerous than it is now. The second point is that most of this immigration has nothing to do with the EU. Thirdly you imply that 'Europeans' know nothing about this situation - do you think that Britain is unique in it's experience of immigration ? Take a trip to Duisburg or Essen, or Rotterdam and there you will also see places which have changed dramatically. Again you talk about 'powers from Brussels'. Powers which were voted for by the British delegation there - in fact 95% of the laws from Brussels were voted for by the British - this is a higher percentage than that of any other country. To add to this Britain had so, so many concessions, together with a handsome rebate (two thirds of what they paid in), which raises the question of who was subsidizing who. The last point of German domination - again the same boring sound bites (can't we have something original ?). The only reason that Germany grew to such a position of relative power was because Britain proved such an unreliable partner to France - the two together could have easily balanced Germany. But if your views on France are, in any way, typicle of the British then it's not hard to see why that happened.
High time that Britain was given back to the ancient Britons, and all those Anglo Saxons (including SH.) were returned to Saxony and Angeln. Funny also that the family of Saxe Coburg are so revered by the carrot crunching middle Englanders - maybe they should be sent home as well.
I'm not sure Yorkie. My mum was a highland Scot - with Norwegian ancestry somewhere. So I may have a touch of 'Briton' in there which allows me to stay ?
I would say all of my views are typical of the majority of the17.5 million who voted for Brexit. I do however have experience of the mindset of locals in SW France because I used to live there. Many know very little of life outside of their own regions. As the vast difference in views about immigration fester and break out in insults between EU member states there will no doubt be an increasing understanding why Cameron was seeking reasonable safeguards to the EU free movement policy. Post Brexit I would expect increasing opposition to the stranglehold Germany has on the EU, helped by its sidekick France, from several of those minor member normally kept under control. Even this week there is plenty of dissatisfaction with the two main members arrogantly designing a Tobin Tax system without any consultation with other members. I cannot see the EU surviving many years in the present format. I expect it to fracture into smaller components with an overall free trade area which the UK could possibly rejoin in the future.
Europe and the UK do not move geographically. I think the discussion is about the EU. I have not heard anyone on the leave side argue they want less friendly relations with countries in Europe. Trade with the EU will remain the most important percentage of trade we have - but the terms will be less good. That was the choice brexiters made. I cannot see the divisions within the UK healing any time soon. If someone burned my house down deliberately I would not forgive and forget quickly. People in the EU must understand that the UK like most of their countries have people who seriously do not like the style and direction of the EU. It is not a UK phenomena - but clearly was more widespread in the UK. Those who voted brexit did so because they did not value the "club" we were in. To be frank it cannot bea surprise to any in the EU that the UK was never very ardent members. If people in the EU cannot respect that the UK had the right to make a decision - whether or not they think it was crazy or wrong then they are rude. The UK had the right to join - and to leave the EU. To suggest they are "hurt" that the UK wants to prosper outside the EU is arrogant and probably false. Of course I think it was wrong and crazy to leave but in a democracy you have to accept the result of voting - however naive and stupid the vote was.
You say that trade with the EU. will remain the most important Leo, but you are forgetting the collateral damage. It is widely known that many British people voted on the theme of immigration - mostly particularly that from the EU. It is as if people are saying to Europe 'We want your trade but we don't want you'. This can only come over in a particular way. The other point is that once Britain are outside of the EU. then European customers are going to increase the range of goods which they buy from each other - if the same product or service is possible from another EU. member then they will buy there instead. I am not suggesting a positive boycott but rather that Britain could be frozen out in some areas. There are many people who are sceptical of the workings of the EU. but who believe the best way is to work from within, and claim the EU. back for it's citizens. The fact that the British are not prepared to do that does come over as anti European, whether you like that or not. Of course the British have a right to withdraw from a voluntary club - nobody is denying that, but their perceived reasons for leaving are the problem. You cannot raise the propaganda tone against Polish and Rumanian visitors to the UK. as the Brexit campaign did, and expect that there will not be a negative response from Europe as a whole.
Most EU countries faced with the mass uncontrolled immigration that the UK has experienced would have reacted the same if not with more negativity. The UK is not, and has never been anti Europe. It just cannot see why it has to accept whatever is thrown at it from Brussels. To be a sovereign nation which controls its own borders and immigration is simply a right enjoyed by most nations in the world. The EU is the experiment that has gone off track to suit the Eurocrats on the gravy train. They will ruin what was once a good idea with a free trade area. The discord between EU member countries continues to increase, nothing to do with Brexit.
I say trade will remain the most important for obvious reasons - ones you expressed yourself - we are each others biggest nearest market. Trade will be lower than had we not left the EU but the idea any other country would come remotely close to the amount of UK/EU trade is dubious. Arguments that start with "it is widely known" - are suppositions not arguments. The UK objected to Schengen so stayed out and Cameron tried to curb some freedom of movement. A lot of concern was raised about non EU migrants. Asylum seekers from various places and lack of control of EU borders. We could both name two or three EU countries whose people moved in reasonably large numbers to the UK starting from around 2003. I doubt that countries making up far more than 90% of the EU population featured in any migrant concern. Certainly I have not heard of German, French, Italian, Spanish complaints about treatment or hostility to their citizens. So there is no basis to argue the UK appeared as we want your trade but not you. If it applied to Romania then I suggest trade with them is raltviely low. Of course tariffs,border controls etc may reduce our imports and exports UK/EU - that was why I voted remain. The point is that trade will be reduced. Agreed. I challenge your point about working from within. Cameron tried that and was rebuffed. He tried for change and none was forthcoming - that is why he lost. The EU was intransigent. Only now when large parts of the continent are echoing what the UK said can you even think about "claiming it back for its citizens (if that actually has any meaning). It is not a question of whether I like that or not - it is that the EU did not like that - whether you like it or not. I think you are underestimating the intelligence of EU citizens. Also their experience of their own politics. Lots of claims are made in elections debates that we know are hyperbole. Do you honestly think the average EU citizen did not realise what the likes of Farage was? He has been as much a joke in EU circles as he has in UK intelligent circles. If your argument boils down to the EU did nt like what we did or why we did it and so do not care about how it affects the UK then I guess you could be correct - I don't know and did not think so. I think the EU always knew that the UK had its own strange way of looking at the world and are sorry we have left butnot really very surprised.
The level of euroscepticism was, and is, higher in several other EU member countries, with France being one of the highest. I' m not claiming this would necessarily lead to the counties leaving although most of the leaders would not dare put it to the test in case The EU was rejected. It would certainly benefit Italy Greece and maybe some others to ditch the euro, in the long run.
