That argument is fine except that it begs the question as to what "leaving the EU on the best possible terms" means. For many the best possible terms meant the Norwayesque route; for others it meant total separation. It is not only the losing half that have to accept the outcome - it is everyone - but when nobody had any idea what a "good" brexit was we have a dilemma
Should have gone to Watford Boys then.... . We exchanged with both France and Germany. Verulamium and Cuffley Camp were our junior school destinations
Germany's financial discipline and excellent organisational skills would ensure they would do well under most circumstances. Their exceptionally high export levels are mainly due to the reduced cost implication of Germany's membership of a financial block with many struggling component nations keeping it's trading currency artificially low value. If Germany left the Euro currency and reverted back to the Mark it's value would be sky high making it's export much less attractive to the world markets. I'm afraid the Germans have outsmarted the rest of the members who have been stitched up good and proper. The southern members are increasingly venting their anger at the Germans, in my view, well deserved.
What you do not seem to realize is that Britain is not just leaving the EU. but also leaving every trade deal which the EU. has with the rest of the World. At present the UK. has preferential access to the markets of around 50 non EU. countries. The first job post Brexit would be a case of playing catch up (ie. to negotiate separate deals with those 50) before any new deals would be possible. You constantly overrate the role of Germany in all of this - the country has about 19% of the population of the EU. produces around 22% of the GDP, is underrepresented in the EU. Commission, and also in the EU. Brexit negotiating team - so what's the big deal with Germany or did you read too much of the Victor and the Valiant when you were young ?
My views on Gemany's stranglehold on the EU's financial institutions are similar to Trump's, many financial commentators and leading political figures in Southern and Eastern EU member nations. There are rising fears worldwide that the German and Chinese trade imbalances cannot continue as at present, both of those countries need to import more and increase domestic consumption. In Germany's case the 2000 pay restraint with the workers has worked too well with wages kept artificially low (as Cologne has often informed us). My views on Germany's unique position has nothing to do with the war, I don't mention it!! I do think their legs should be tied together when taking penalties though.
Numbers do not always give a true picture. Nobody has any doubt that Germany calls the shots in the EU. Unfortunately, along with France, the UK used to be not far behind with the 25 others largely following along. With the exit of the UK Germany becomes even more prominent. That is not their fault though.
The UK was always at a disadvantaged position having joined the club much later. At least with Brexit (I mean a proper Brexit, not a half in/out fudge) the UK will have a position it can take without the present horse trading. Germany will actually lose a like minded fellow member, maybe it should have thought about that when Cameron was sent packing without a packed lunch.
I agree the UK joining later was unfortunate. Mostly though it was the French who gained. The EEC was set out in its image. Although powerful Germany chose to play second fiddle so soon after the war. That is just history though - with our rebates, opt outs etc we did very nicely thank you. Do you remember the mid 70s - the UK was a basket case economy. Forty years on we were not far behind Germany as the leading power in Europe. The future is not ours to see but it is difficult to imagine how we can do so many favourable trade deals with the rest of the world to make up for those we lose - but that is just hard luck - those who chose brexit had reasons other than economic and these won out. I am rather on the fence regarding what sort of brexit I want. All are bad to me but in some ways your preference does at least mean we sort out our own future. I am not sure that giving up membership of the EU for a Norway style brexit was worth while -it could be the worst of both worlds. The evil in me says it serves us right and I hope we have a rubbish future as we chucked away the good one. I do agree with you that the EU were stupid not to "deal" with Cameron - but perhaps they felt we had cried wolf once too many times.
Many Brexiteers, including myself are concerned we may well end up with the worst of all options, half in /half out, minus the good bits but unable to secure the best bits, hopefully not. I would still not want to return to the status quo though. To avoid OFH's often predicted chaos the UK must allow democracy it's natural course and ensure Brexit is completed within the red lines with the minimum amount of fudge. I believe only a real prospect of the UK walking away from a bad deal will secure a decent agreement with the EU. Handbags need to be a swinging. Two of the best fiscal decisions the UK made within the last 40 years was not joining the Euro and leaving the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. The second was rather by necessity than choice but worked out wonderfully in the long run.
Disagree, i'm happy along with many others to be part of Europe, throughout my travels i've probably embraced Europe more than most British from a cultural and language perspective, including way of life. Just because i do not embrace the powers of the Brussels does not mean i do not embrace varied and differing aspects which make up the continent we live within. I actually see it as an insult to suggest otherwise. I believe the EU will continue to fall until the will of the people is recognised from both sides, I knew Italy would follow next, it's only the dictatorship of those in power who gain financially that prevent the wings of the EU from dismantling quicker.
I too feel we may fall between two stools - but mainly because we never planned what we wanted. I don't believe in chaos and am not sure OFH has predicted it. What I do believe is that brexit will reduce long term growth and make our economy smaller in the long run than it would otherwise have been - but there is no way we can test that. I do agree that if the EU feel we have to accept "any"deal we are less likely to get a "better" deal. Allow democracy to take its course is just a meaningless phrase. Democracy was a vote. Implementation of a deal is executive government. TM's mob have not shown they are competent at that.
I take it you voted for brexit. I often see you post interesting stuff so perhaps you may be the person who can best explain how the UK is better off out of the EU. I totally accept the EU is not well run but essentially how did it harm the UK?
Goodness me, I been have halfway through France today, well it feels like it, and still this debate continues. You are right Leo, I have never predicted chaos, but what I have suggested from the evidence I see from over here, the country will be worse off, and those at the bottom of the social tree will be the ones bearing the brunt of it. Look at how the companies here are preparing. Sourcing parts that have been coming from the UK from other countries. Building offices to take financial service staff, opening international schools and new housing areas. Investment into France has reached record levels, while in the UK it has ground to a halt. This has all taken place over the last two years and will accelerate once it becomes clearer where the UK thinks it is going. This idea of what is a good deal has never been explained because no ones seems to have an idea what it is they want. A "good deal" is as meaningless as "Brexit means Brexit". There are so many different ideas of what is hoped for it will never satisfy even the ones within the leave camp.
Hi Leo, my vote was not to be better off, i knew when i voted it would have an adverse effect on the economy. I've always openly acknowledged that even in real life. It's difficult to explain without writing endless pages of war and peace. Sadly my vote was against the EU establishment not the priciples within it to a degree. I feared the erosion of nations and cultural identity, being replaced by a uniformed state and i was prepared to suffer hardship if it so fall to keep diversity. Sounds crazy i know, but when i see people such as Blair who i see as war criminal, living a life of luxury and supporting remain it makes my stomach churn. I love Europe, i really do, i hate the financial influence within it. So the harm comes from what i see as an unelected dictatorship infesting National democracies. If that makes me a crackpot then im happy to fly that banner.
Referring to the erosion of cultural identity brb. I what way was that a danger for the UK ? All of Britain's institutions and it's political structure are distinctively British, and will remain so. Nobody has suggested that Britain must adopt either the Euro or Schengen. Nobody has tried to change the peculiar British voting system from outside - or any of a thousand and one other things. Nobody has asked you to join a European super state - Britain has always been allowed a number of opt outs. So where exactly is this cultural erosion ? I would suggest that a closer relationship to the USA. would be far more dangerous in this respect, particularly because of the language similarity. You already experience far more cultural Americanization in the UK. than any influence which can be sensed as coming from Germany or France.
Double edged sword for me, because the USA is the same bag in my opinion. They are what Europe was becoming. It was a sad day when Yugoslavia self destructed (outside of EU governance) but it's rebuilt itself. Once you build the temple, much like the Romans, the cloning of culture commences. Florence in recent years has been fighting back against the 'language of business' referring to English. North Italy has become more infested than the SUD (south). I'm not against migration but we have to becareful that the culture of nations does not become eroded through it. But in short i hate Amercanisation, ive no issues with France or Germany, however, i do liken Merkel to Thatcher in strength of power, Thatcher eventually fell on her own sword. But to explain in a different context, i love the cultural history of Cuba, i hate that America is lifting sanctions, to me liken to Europe even if it means struggles, keep your identity but hey maybe im just a dinosaur.
Not sure where you get your figures from, the UK remained the top destination for foreign investment in financial services in 2017. After years of poor investment France did improve 25% as the anti business socialist government was replaced. France still has a long way to go to rise from the 'basket case' description adequately portrayed by multi national heads in previous years. It is obvious what a good deal is. It is a mutually beneficial arrangement whereby goods and services flow with as least friction as possible whilst maintaining the UK's red lines. Whilst the EU is terrified of contagion if Brexit is seen as a success, it will ensure problems are not solved. Withholding the ransom might clear their minds somewhat.
I agree about the need to preserve cultural identity and certainly, if I go to Florence then I want to have the feeling of being in Italy. However these threats come from globalization in general, not particularly from the EU. and, in some ways, the EU. is our best protection against this. Can you name me one law which was imposed from Brussels which you disagreed with ? In fact Britain voted for about 95% of EU. laws - a higher correlation than any other nation. I do see the problem in as much as that our democracies grew against the background of the nation state - and do not transport easily onto the supranational level. But that is a challenge - not something we should be running away from. Most Europeans would agree that the EU. is not yet a fully democratic institution - the EU. Parliament is the only body directly elected - and we need to be strengthening their hand against that of the EU Commission and other non elected bodies. Unfortunately this democratization of the EU. will be more difficult if people simply walk away from it.
One of the best brexit answers I have read. Also when I wrote better off I was not thinking financially as I took it that you probably accepted that.
Didn't a report last year predict very little difference in UK growth with or without Brexit? Even Farage accepted smaller growth was price worth paying, I also agree, although would not accept that was necessarily be the case.
