I don't think you are being very fair here Leo - there is no political party anywhere that would not welcome 400,000 new members. Are you suggesting that people should have voting rights based on their length of membership ? Like some kind of private club. As a party member you want to be in a party where you can have some influence - this is healthy. You do not know who these 400,000 are - or do you think they are all Trots trying to take over the party ? There are thousands of young idealists who are inspired by Corbyn - some even from the Green Party. But there may also be many returning members. You shouldn't forget that party membership more than halved during the Blair years - admittedly mostly because of the Iraq war.
Looking back over the past 20-30 years the UK political scene has changed and both of the main parties have been infiltrated. Some of it has been going for a longer period than other changes, but change it has. Momentum has gained a fairly strong foothold within the Labour party in recent times, but for what reasons? Well for a start for a few quid you could join the Labour party and vote for the leader. It was well reported that many Tories joined up simply to ensure that Corbyn was elected, a means they thought would keep the party out of power for years. Many more others have joined the party for totally honourable reasons, they want to see a fairer society, and believe that he could lead the country in that direction. The Tories have allowed themselves to take far more notice of the ones that John Major called the bastards, in fact there would never have been a referendum without this group raising their voices. Some are pleased with this, but the walk away from the "one nation" party leaves many unsure of where the country is being led. I did say that both parties have been infiltrated, and I believe that people who were on the right wing of UK political life are now within its fold, and making far more noise, and with the backing of some tabloid newspapers get more attention than is due. In many parts of the country the old tribal loyalties still exist, be it in the leafy shires or the industrial areas of the north east. Many people do not really want to think too hard, and will simply vote for the way that their traditional party suggests. This has brought about the current situation of chaos, as neither party can say with certainty just where they are trying to take us. The Labour party has almost half the MPs voting against a whip, and the Tories are beholden to a party that is holding the whip hand along with a small group of maybe 50 Tories. It is this split away from the centre ground that leaves the country grounded going nowhere. We have pressure being exerted on the PM from all sides and because she is trying above all to hold her party together we have been discussing not with the EU how to withdraw, but what what will stop the party falling apart. We have no further idea of what is actually wanted than we had the day of the referendum, apart for things that are already off the table. You can level this at both parties, wanting something that is not available. Many people have claimed that immigration was the issue that swayed the vote, yet yesterday one of the most multi-cultural areas in England held an election and returned a MP and a runner up that both wanted close ties with the EU. The party that doesn't want to stay close had their vote decimated. How can this be when my friend in Dorset admits he has never seen any immigrants in the county, yet believes they have a problem? I believe that our political system is close to a breakdown, I could go into the reasons why, but will save that for another time. As the UKIP donor Banks said this week, you do not try to reason with people, you simply appeal to their emotions. Leading them up the garden path with false arguments is perfectly alright. If that is correct then all of us who think and try to express ourselves on this thread are wasting our time.
The debate is great.. but I see no future in a debate that descends in to divisive jibes. Anyway way I have had a great day walking up to Simons Seat with friends one of whom is in remission from cancer... The walk was exhilarating.. And Yorkie managed it well after all his recent health problems ... Puts life into perspective.. Sent from my G3121 using Tapatalk
The UK is experiencing an extremely difficult time over Brexit but is fundamentally one of the most stable political nations in Europe. We do not suffer large support for the extremes as in France, Italy Germany etc. Despite previous false predictions by OFH the two main parties in the UK continue to attract the vast majority of support from the electorate. There is chaos in Italy and real problems in Germany trying to hold the coalition together. Most EU countries are bickering amongst themselves about the serious immigration problem with no common ground in sight. There are millions of people that consider they are negatively affected by uncontrolled immigration, just not many in leafy Dorset. This perception that people did not know what they were voting for during the referendum is inaccurate and demeaning to the vast majority of the electorate.
Why is the UK experiencing these problems? Let us forget comparisons for once and speak about the UK. Can you say why the only party able to deal with these problems is as split as the opposition is? The country is totally split still, the parties are all in the same boat. Is this the stability you believe in? I could quote figures, but it seems that many people realise that they have been sold a pup, not my words but the chief backer of UKIP. Politics are changing wherever you look in the world, the old tribal loyalties are now being examined. As I said there are many reasons that one post cannot cover the in-depth reasons behind it. All government statistics show that many people will be worse off, yet if you are comfortably situated that doesn't matter. My whole reasoning was that if it has not quite crumbled yet, Brexit will over time bring about a breakdown in our political structures that started twenty or more years ago.
I wonder whether the BOTs and CDTs complicate the issue - as I imagine overseas territories of any of the member nations would if they were also leaving, assuming they are affiliates of the EU as we are in Jersey. We had elections a month ago and have a new First Minister and virtually a whole new cabinet. I know that Teresa May would probably never say it, but is that a problem with the negotiations? We receive all of the UK media, so our local media stick to local issues - there may occasionally be a couple of paragraphs on Brexit on the UK news page of the Jersey Evening Post, and I imagine it's the same in the Guernsey Daily Press given that they're owned by the same company.
There is no breakdown in political structures in the UK. Your predictions of the demise of the UK's two party domination has been totally incorrect. You are looking for problems that do not exist. Meanwhile on your favoured continent there is widespread violent protests and millions of days lost through strikes in France against urgent government reforms. Italy is virtually ungovernable, and broke, at the moment, whilst Germany's coalition looks short lived. I can see why you don't like meaningful comparisons. The Brexit negotiations have certainly been harmed by the UK government's lack of a majority, it needs May to finally come down on the side of the brexiteers to reflect the referendum result. If that takes a change of leadership to achieve then so be it. No ransom should be paid until all parts of the negotiations have been concluded, no deal, no cash for Brussels.
Did I miss the widespread corruption amongst politicians and government officials in Spain and elsewhere?.
I agree with you. It is a shame more people do not try to argue the positives of what they believe rather than the negatives of others - the debate is much better for that. Glad you had a good walk and pleased for your friend.
You said that the negotiations have been going badly, and I asked you why. You say it is because the PM doesn't have a majority. Why is that? Could it be that the country at large doesn't wish to give her one? The largest single party, yes, but not enough trust to give her what she wanted. With 80% of the country, including 75% of Tories saying the talks are going badly, there can be little doubt that is the case. Your solution is for her to favour one side of the argument within the cabinet. Others could equally say she should come down on the other side. Both could say they were honouring the referendum result as no one had set out a particular path to achieve it.
You ask why - the answer is that neither Labour nor Conservative supported brexit in the campaign and although both say they will implement it because that was the result of the referendum they have two problems. 1. With such a narrow majority they are bound to displease millions. 2. There is no easy way to unravel the ties built up over nearly 50 years. Because it was "unthinkable" that we would actuall vote brexit no thought went into preparing for it. I suspect a ten year plan would have been needed to orchestrate a brexit properly.
Even a majority would only enable the government to force a brexit through. It would still leave 48% of the voters dissatisfied. This was a divisive referendum and there was never going to be a happy outcome. The only way there could have been even a semblance of a decent brexit would have been if brexit had been split on party lines - then the party of brexit could have got on with it. Sadly this was not how it panned out.
I think I am being very fair - but this is old ground. You are about the only person I know who thinks that party membership is very important. Worse you are happy that 400,000 people can join a party and take over its direction. What about the 12+ milliion peope who want to vote Labour? I consider the electorate far more important than a cadre of activists who wish to move a party to their ends. Labour are foolish to allow it. It wrecked them in the 1980s and ultimately it will come to a sad end again this time. Labour has to be a mass appeal party. They should now be miles ahead of the most inept Tory government and leader in decades. That they are not is a total condemnation of Corbyn. That ends all I have to say on party membership as we have been around that block too many times.
I agree totally with both of your posts above Leo. From my standpoint the ten year period is still likely to be an outcome as we will be still split at the time of the next election. We are in a position where coalition government is becoming the normal, yet the FPTP voting system is not a good way of peoples views being represented. To say that because my party has one more seat than your party gives me the absolute right to drive through my policies is not the way to produce good government. Somehow, from the current situation a way must be found to unite the whole of the population, including Scotland and N.Ireland. The EU is currently preparing plans for the talks to be suspended for a period. Maybe this period of time to reflect on the situation might be the best thing to do.
The Tories lost their majority after the disastrous attempt to solve the long term care problem. The disappointing GE result was on the back of record support for the PM plus a superb showing for the Tories in the local elections a few months previous. Despite her claiming the GE was backing for her vision of Brexit the domestic policy cock up did the damage. The talks are obviously going badly because of the lack of a healthy majority. The government is at the mercy of minority groups currently enjoying influence way beyond their normal status. If she has to choose Brexiteers or the reversal rebels, despite being a remainer herself, she must choose those who actually won the referendum. On the issue of UK political stability the only danger to the dominating two party system is the rise of Momentum within the Labour Party. There simply is not enough middle class luvvies from North London to vote for a Marxist led party hell bent on ditching decent middle of the road MP's for hard left substitutes. I agree with Leo, The Labour Party would be unelectable. This would only benefit the Conservatives although I would not mind that except the UK needs a strong opposition, with sensible policies, to keep the government of the day fully focused.
TM simply ran a terrible campaign. Probably mostly due to overconfidence - why else would she have introduced two measures that hurt their main support base. The talks are going badly because the UK has no consensus on what should be done. As a result it is fudge and more fudge. I actually do not blame TM - I am quite sure any other Tory or Labour PM would be in exactly the same invidious position. As usual you put it in language which aims to be more controversial than I would choose but essentially I agree. A moderate Labour Party is eminently electable as Blair showed three times. People who support Corbyn are very pleased with themselves but for most people who would like to see an alternative to Tory policies he is a disaster. He is gambling that he can scrape home due to Tory splits and incompetence and I fear he could just be right. I fear for democracy in this country if he ever becomes PM.
I will mention this subject for one last time and then leave it Leo. I am not the only person in the World to be worried about party membership figures - the parties themselves are deeply worried about it. Small party membership means that the pool of people needed to cover a range of political posts, from town councillor through to PM. shrinks to impossible levels. It means that political parties become more dependent upon finding sponsors in order to fight election campaigns - how much of the Tory election budget now comes from party membership ? Parties who always have one eye fixed upon satisfying the needs of their leading sponsors hardly have the manouvreability to respond to the electorate.
I did not vote for the smarmy egotistical Blair but I can understand why the country voted for his government of middle politics, investment in the NHS, business friendlyetc, for so many years. A similar type approach from the centre left would annihilate the present Tory bunch, Thank you Jezza you have kept the Tories in power.
