Not having a pop at you, Smokey, but we get this every year before the race it is a poor race; then afterwards if something has put in a fetching performance to win it was a great race. Most of the field have been running in single-figure field trial races avoiding each other until today. To some extent I agree with you but I will bore you and point out the actual mathematics: I never bet each way at less than 12/1 (1/4 odds) or 16/1 (1/5 odds) and I only back something that I think can actually win. The former is Even money for a place because you lose your win stake: £10 e/w returns £40. The latter is 11/10 for a place because you lose your win stake: £10 e/w returns £42. When I want to do something that I know will place but not win, I do it place only on the Tote. I was told a 13yo each way at 33/1 early in the season first time out. I knew it could not win so I did it place only and it paid just over 5/1 in finishing third. My mate did it each way with BetFred and got back less than me because he effectively halved his stake. So in the Derby, if I think Saxon Warrior is going to win it is too short to back so I leave the race alone. I was amazed to hear somebody as experienced as Brough Scott on the TV yesterday clearly caught up in the Ballydoyle hype about this being the next Pegasus. I do not do the hype and the way it won at Newmarket did not shout Derby winner like when Sea The Stars won. If it wins by half the track, somebody will be along to say what a cracking price it was and it will be odds-on for the St Leger and the Arc. Nobody will bother to suggest that we might just have another bunch of moderate three year olds and it is a good horse like Cracksman and Enable last year. He could be another Camelot or Australia.
Another on Hazapour here as for Worcester fancies....here goes Northandsouth Treakle tart Black Kalanisi Rejaah...but now drifting in the market Tick tock BOOM Earth leader Have a great day out. Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk
Not backing this myself – surely the last race that I would want to receive a tip for at Epsom – but I have been told Tarboosh in the Epsom Dash (3:45) by the mate who gave me one of Midgley’s a couple of weeks ago. He must have got it early because I am pretty sure that he has no mobile coverage about five miles off Bridlington where he has gone fishing! Always a good idea to look at the ‘other’ cards on Derby day because there is usually something running somewhere that is looking to pick up a few quid while nobody is watching. In the Musselburgh 2:15, No Lippy and Red Balloons should fight out the finish. Haggas has a couple of decent chances on the card and Hanagan has a couple of decent outside rides as well as those for Fahey; however, the bookies have factored that into the prices. At Doncaster, Crowley and Atzeni both have at least one short-priced favourite. In the last, I can see Atzeni’s getting turned over by Crowley’s mount MAGHAWEER – unless his usual Hamdan jinx applies when added to the weight of my cash.
Fair enough, but in a one horse race you have three options; back, ignore or oppose. I think Saxon Warrior is very opposable at the price. A horse with doubts about the distance is taking a huge chunk out of the market, basically framing it for horses we know will get home. Of course, he'll still have a favourites chance, but you don't get ahead backing favourites every time..
So the old "value" argument rears its head. Well here's my take, a 1/20 winner returns more than leaving your money in the bank. So the only "value" is after the event and the result is declared. A 100/1 unlucky 4th in an 8 runner is not value.
Couldn't agree more about Brough Scott. Was amazed to hear him talk in such a hyperbolic way. Also in total agreement on the Guineas race. Ah well - we will know in just over three hours!
Well yes it's hard to disagree with that but you can't look at it in isolation. You have to think the horse has got a decent chance and if it does and you think the price is better than it should be then you'd probably back it. I always look at risk to reward as well. Would rather lose a fiver on an 8/1 shot than 80 on a 1/2 shot for the same return.
The value concept is all about the long haul - if you consistently get the value, you won't win any more often than the average punter, but your winnings will exceed your losses over time. In theory. This is a theory the Bookies all buy into btw, as they have algorithyms specifically designed to identify and restrict the punters who regularly get the value.
I just chuck a few quid at horses I like on Saturdays and days off and have done with it. Have neither the patience nor intelligence to play the percentage or long haul games!
Me too these days mate. I'm bookie fodder, don't have the time to be anything else. Which is ironic, because now I can't get on for beans, and it's saving me bundles.
Last year was a terrible Derby, the year before was as well with Harzand, so everyone was right. The two good horses from those races were Cracksman, who hates the track, and Ulysses who was just out of a maiden and was a 1m2 specialist. The year before when Golden Horn smashed Jack Hobbs was the last good Derby, as some said at the time, it was the best form in Europe. If we are being honest this year, how many of these horses have the potential to be contenders for the major G1s this season. If we are lucky, 2 from the top 4 in the betting will emerge.
I never thought it was a direct dig at me pal, I was just putting an argument forward for each way betting from my perspective. I just think Saxon Warrior is beatable but not confident enough to say definitively and by which horse so tried to find one i think has a chance but does offer value if it only places. If I thought Saxon Warrior was a cert I'd either not have a bet in the race or stick it in some accas.
My mate was telling me a punter had 500 ew on Boom the Groom (345 Epsom) in his nephews betting shop. I backed it last night so he has no bloody chance!
The Busted colours win the 2nd! Haven't noticed them for years. On Hazarpour to win and taken a bit of EW on Knight to Behold, but more with my heart than my head. If we accept the 2000G form is the best seen so far then it is just a matter of whether SW gets the trip, which on his pedigree he should comfortably, and that he manages coming down a hill on the turn. There is only the slight worry that a horse that shows speed enough to win a good Guineas can have the stamina to stay further.
What the **** am I watching on ITV? Some camp dude in a skirt talking about make up and dresses. Is this still a racing show? I normally switch over between races.
