Saturday's Meetings Epsom Downs Flat 7 Races 2:00-5:50p.m. The Derby Off @ 4:30p.m. Navan Flat 8 Races 1:15-5:10p.m. Doncaster Flat 8 Races 1:20-5:25p.m. Hexham N/H 7 Races 1:30-5:20p.m. Musselburgh Flat 7 Races 1:40-5:30p.m. Worcester N/H 7 Races 1:45-5:35p.m. Lingfield(E) Flat 7 Races 5:40-8:40p.m. Tramore(E) N/H 7 Races 5:45-8:50p.m. Chepstow(E) Flat 7 Races 6:00-9:00p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Good Luck
The Derby looks piss poor this year, cannot believe the price of Saxon Warrior. Not sure if I'll even bother having a bet in it but looking at prices for an ew shout then two that jump out are Zabriskie and Dee Ex Bee at around 50s and 16s respectively.
So i've now had another proper look at the race and i'm changing my mind on the two above. Although i still think both look worthy each way bets and i may regret ditching them but i'm going for just one and that is Knight To Behold @ 18/1 ew with Skybet going 4 places.
Epsom Derby: Saxon Warrior 11/10. Was surprised he was not odds on earlier. Simple win bet. Best horse best jockey. Not original but ground should continue to dry out and I don't see any other result. Am off to Worcester racecourse tomorrow for ladies day . Never been to this course before so looking forward to it and the Abba Tribute later. Lol. Any tips greatly received..
Saxon Warrior will win by about 6 lengths tomorrow. Most confident I have ever been about the Derby. Hazpour 2nd Dee Ex Bee 3rd, although also wouldn’t be surprised to see one of the other O Brien horses in the top 3. Rest of the card looks a minefield - Dash of Spice should win the 5.15 though, and although I don’t think it will happen I would love Caspian Prince to win the Dash. Dark Shot the more likely winner.
I wish hed just stay odds on tbh so I dont have to consider backing him, trying to tempt us in with Evens. Ive never been convinced about his stamina for this but I also wasnt convinced he had the speed to win the Guineas. Hes probably the only proper G1 horse in the race. Roaring Lion was just a bit below as a 2yo and id say he still is now but hes a very decent horse with gears, he could clean up G1s in American turf races but ill be surprised if this is his cup of tea. This race on soft ground is probably Young Rascals pinnacle. Hazapour has a bit more potential to contest top races on better ground and ive backed him for this but not confident. The Epsom card is one of the muggiest cards ive ever seen, anyone betting those handicaps needs sanctioning by a Zulu council for their own safety, they should be 10/1 the field. The Group 3s not much better although I did back Century Dream at 11/2 a few days ago. Backed National Security 11/4 at Navan and Glorious Army 9/1 at Doncaster.
I just cannot see beyond Saxon Warrior in The Derby, although I would love to see Roaring Lion win it. Will just watch and enjoy this time. You could well be right Smokey, but I am not so sure it is such a p-poor Derby, this favourite could well be a good'un?
Derby looks a wide open race so the play is YOUNG RASCAL 8/1 e/w. I think he could have much more in his locker and should be staying on powerfully when others have cried enough.
How many folks will be on here today with some “each-way value bet” for The Derby? From a betting point of view, if you think the favourite is going to win then back it or leave the race alone. Each-way betting just for the places is a mug’s game. There is no doubt that Saxon Warrior’s price at the head of the market is entirely down to from where he hails and the usual hype. Odds-on a week ago, he is now on the drift and one suspects that the layers on the course will want to get him. The 2000 Guineas form now looks dubious but he could do little else but win; and there are no ground worries today. By race time, I am expecting it to be Good to Soft at worst. I cannot think of any reason why Racing Post Trophy runner-up Roaring Lion will reverse that form and the trainer has previously stated that quick ground would be preferable for his charge. As Roaring Lion had Zabriskie behind in the Dante, it would be a major surprise if that one won – although Beggy has form on that score! Hazapour won the Derrinstown and comes from the family of a Derby winner; however, the last Derrinstown winner to collect at Epsom was High Chaparral in 2002, so recent history is against him. He should still account for Delano Roosevelt and The Pentagon, both of whom may not want easy ground. Masar was a big disappointment in the 2000 Guineas, there are question marks about him getting the trip and it is difficult to come up with a game plan that would see him overturn Newmarket running with the favourite. It is hard to make a case for Knight To Behold purely on the Lingfield Derby Trial form (Kew Gardens a moderate second) and he is unlikely to get an easy lead with at least one of the Ballydoyle contingent surely here to make sure there is no hanging around. Sevenna Star should give connections a good run and good luck to Rab Havlin but the subsequent form lines of the placed horses from Sandown suggest he needs to find a lot here. Despite winning the Chester Vase, YOUNG RASCAL is still unexposed and possibly up to finding the level of improvement needed to win. He holds Dee Ex Bee on Vase form. If he can lie up near the pace and get first run on the favourite, he has a chance to bring Derby glory to Somerville Lodge. Watch Dance Diva bolt up in the 2:35, as my three strikes rule means I won’t be chasing my losses anymore...
That is the trouble with writing your stuff the night before – events sometimes overtake you. I guess the big players are smashing into it overnight/this morning but the course bookies still have empty satchels for three or four hours and I still think they will want to lay it.
15:45 Epsom - Blue De Vega e/w (Questionable whether he's a true 5f horse, but is now in the hands of a top sprint trainer, Robert Cowell, who know his onions. Needs to keep up from an otherwise top barrier position, very good jockey, going ideal, should be closing at the finish. He's still an entire I believe, so hope he can keep his mind on the job, be a good excuse if he loses though? Worth a modest e/w at the freely-available 14/1 at time of writing). Good luck to all on an interesting day's racing. Edit: See it's 16/1 with PP, of all people, at 10 a.m. UK time.
