Match Day Thread Everton v Southampton Saturday 5th May 17:30

There's an 8-0 before that. I believe we hit the bar in that game so it wasn't all one-way.

 

Whenever anyone says Sam Allardyce my brain knee jerks and says West Ham. By the time it says Everton, he will have been sacked.

 

Eveton have lost 100% of their games against us this season. That gives us a 100% chance to win. Not listening to any arguments because that's 100% how statistics work

 

I’d like to see the mathematical calculation that came up with the conclusion that Everton who’ve only lost twice in over 5 months at home since Sam took over - to Arsenal and City, are somehow underdogs to beat Soton who’ve only beaten WBA away since the middle of Sept.

 

I have got a good feeling about Saturday though, we're due a win up there and with an unhappy home crowd I'm hoping to take advantage.

The last stat is appalling though

 

The crowd not having Sam won’t be an issue unless we start like drains and you take the lead.

If we start Ok and score first, you’re ****ed

 

My hope is to keep it tight for twenty minutes or so before growing into the game.

 

I suspect that it comes under the statistical heading of "Having a Positive Frame of Mind" when going into any competitive scenario / match / battle etc.

Fundamentally, that's (generally) what Saints fans do!

 

It's not a mathematical calculation. It's a market. The mathematical papers show how astoundingly accurate such markets are. You see, markets take into account your blind faith that Everton are going to win along with the blind faith of a Southampton supporter that Saints are going to win. Plus all the neutrals. Plus professional gamblers. Plus the next-door neighbour of Jordan Pickford, who saw him twist his ankle this morning. Plus Sofiane Boufal's brother. They amalgamate all that information into a single number.

If you're interested (I know you're not) Hewlett Packard created an internal betting market on how many PC's etc they would sell in each quarter. It always outperformed their paid forecasters. They dropped it because, just like you, they didn't want to believe it.

I'm ever so sorry that the Betfair market verdict doesn't match yours. It seems to me that the only rational course of action would be for you to remortgage your house and bet on Everton at the crazily long odds that Betfair are currently showing.

Knowing you, one thing I can predict with 100% confidence is that if you win you'll be back on here crowing that Betfair got it wrong.

Vin

 

You’ve merely confirmed what I originally said ffs

That the odds reflect the market and that the market has obviously been titled towards Soton off the back some money going on them, in what is almost certainly currently a relatively small market, off the back of their win last week and some blind faith.

Come nearer to kick off I’ll wager you, that the market will alter as people see Everton at home as value when they’re putting their weekend accas and singles on.

Tobes

 

If we start Ok and score first, you’re ****ed

__________________________________

If we start well and score first we're F*****d!

 

Its official SFC are favourites. But saints are clearly not favourites !!!!

 

Perhaps big Sam stuck his wages on us!

 

Yeah, you're right. You always are.

I remember now why you were on my ignore list.

Vin

 

Deleted

 

I know I am

You’re welcome

Tobes

 

stick a tenner on both teams to win
so hedge your bets
and then do a big **** underneath the hedge at 2/1

 

.....then wait for the draw.......

 

I'm not particularly confident of a win. But at the same time, if you offered me a draw right now, I don't know if I'd take it. Not only does that (almost certainly) force us to beat Swansea, but even that might not be enough. Whereas I can't see us going down if we collect six points, I have concerns over whether four points would be sufficient.

Even if we to spring a surprise and supplement four points with a fifth against City, it quite possibly would make no difference. Eg four points will keep us above Stoke, it doesn't need to be five; four points will put us above Huddersfield if they only draw Arsenal, if doesn't need to be five - but if Huddersfield were to beat Arsenal, we'd need six rather than five.

(It might well be that I'm more willing to accept the point come KO time, given that Swansea will have already played. If they have lost, then the point for us does become a little more valuable. Certainly, I wouldn't then expect Hughes to be willing to sacrifice the one point in order for the full three. But if Swansea win, we've got very little to lose by risking the point.)

 

Too many possibilities as it stands to know whether a point would be a good point or not. We've got to go for the win