Article: My big worry about having a lone striker | Football, Newcastle

We won't score enough goals unless the striker is really ****ing good.

I mean think about it. Which lone striker formations really work? Tevez at Man City, Rooney at Man Utd, Van Persie at Arsenal. Who else beyond that? Wolves did it with Doyle a few times and they barely scraped by on the bones of their arse.

It all comes down to the maths. If you had two strikers in a 4-4-2 scoring 12 goals each, then the lone striker and man behind the striker would have to score at least 24 goals to make the formation as productive. That's not so difficult if the lone striker is top class and can bag 20 a season, but if he's no better than a 12 goal striker in a 4-4-2, then the AM has to make up on a lot of the shortfall.

In our case, if we have a 12-15 goals a season striker up front, We'll have to rely on Ben Arfa or another AM to bag at least 10+ goals of his own to match the productiveness of a quality double striker formation. Can he do that? I don't know. I hope so.

Then of course we have to rely on the rest of the squad to bring the tally up. A few goals from Stevie Taylor, one from Colo, a few from Cabaye, a few from Jonas and a few from the other winger (Marveaux hopefully). Without that, we simply would not score enough goals to get enough points for a top 10 finish. We scored 56 last season, so if we were lucky enough to have an attack force which could do at least half of that (optimism there) a lot of goals would still need to come from elsewhere.

(one interesting point of note is that we scored the 6th highest number of goals and conceded the 9th highest. We beat Sunderland on goals scored and equalled on goals conceded, but they still finished above us. This shows that providing the goals are spread out more efficiently (instead of being grouped in, say, a 6-0 thrashing of Villa) we don't HAVE to score as many goals as last year to get more points this year. In fact, Tottenham, Fulham, Villa and Sunderland all scored considerably less than we did. Sunderland only scored one goal more than West Ham did, yet they clearly did markedly better in the table by the end of the season)

The one advantage of the 4-4-1-1 is that the AM can score almost as many goals as a decent striker, but he can also participate more in general play and rack up more assists than an ordinary striker would. These assists not only turn into goals for the lone striker, but also help other in-field players score, like our CM's and wingers.

This will be a key factor when the season pans out and we see whether a 1-1 attack force (or 2-3-1) is going to result in more goals (and more actual point-scoring goals) compared to a standard double striker formation.

 

Great article, very logical. We need another striker, Ba and Best are awful together. Best just screws shots high wide and handsome and Ba seems to have lost all form :\

 

I think it suits us better though because why have 2 misfiring forwards when you can play one and have an extra midfielder to provide better service for him?

For example; imagine last season, we had Shola and Lovenkrands. Both pretty ****e, both scored 6 goals in the PL in 25+ apps. If we had played Shola with a creative force like Marveaux or Ben Arfa then he would have had much more service and might well have scored 10-12 goals (not too unrealistic), which means the playmaker would only have to score 2 or 3 to more than make up for the lack of Lovenkrands.

Now our strikers are Ba and Best, who are both better than Shola and Lover and I rate them both, but neither looks like scoring goals so the theory is transferable to them IMO, when in this form.

 

I hovered the mouse over the thread before I clicked and thought it was just going to be this bit.

The key on the loan striker role is the midfield, if you have players who will get in behind and provide a real attacking threat then it shouldn't be a problem. We only really have Ben Arfa who does that, him and Nolan behind a target man (Carroll?) would've been incredibly potent. The front man then has added responsibilities to bring the midfielders into play as well as scoring goals, which is ok for the Drogbas, Tevezes and Adebayors of this world, but I can't really see Ba, Ameobi or Best bagging the necessary goals to take the pressure off them, which leads to them being greedier and ultimately the whole team suffers.

We do need another striker, preferably someone fast. I don't like the look of Maiga, I don't think he'd give you anything Sammy wouldn't so it would be a waste of £9m. If we can't get someone in Sammy should definitely be in with a shout as second striker, he's been impressive in his fleeting appearances so far.

 

We'll just have to spend big on a good striker who can play up top on his own effectively (........ )

 

Gosling seems to get into good positions (but hasnt scored yet)...we could use him off the front man untill ben arfa is back..

 

Isn't Sammy a winger though?

 

Could play off the shoulder of the striker like an inside forward.

 

Ben Arfa.............. 10goals.......

Ben Arfa 10 games and il be happy

 

Can't Obertan play higher up as well? Keep forgetting he exists.

 

Striker or left winger. Primarily a striker I think.

 

Could do what AC Milan used to do with a narrow 4-3-3/4-3-2-1 and play him and Sammy off a target man.

 

I think Sammy should be used on the right, cutting in to shoot since his crossing from the left is poor and he has the skill and physique of a midfielder rather than striker.

 

Hopefully we will play Best and Ba and hope Ba can find a goal

 

A lot of people seem to be forgetting about Ferguson as a winger who can help us sort out a formation now Barton is gone. Throw Sammy into that mix too and we have some options.

 

Just a shame he, Marveaux and Jonas, while all capable on the right*, are all better on the left.

*Obviously havent seen Ferguson there, but still.