And FiveThirtyEight's predictive model is quite close to the bookies' odds: Likelihood of relegation: West Brom: 99%+ Stoke: 78% Saints: 36% Huddersfield: 36% West Ham: 26% Swansea: 6% Newcastle: 3% Brighton: 3% Hoping it's a typo on Bournemouth's odds above, or there are some seriously silly bettors out there. 100/1 is probably closer to the mark than 20/1.
Thinking of getting tickets for me and the boys to the Everton away game. Anybody got any advice on taking kids to footy, been a longtime since I was last at a game.
How do you feel about their SPI ratings?? I'm interested in why they haveHuddersfield so far off the deep end. Makes me quite confident that they will finish 18th. West Ham are also rubbish (and Crystal Palace should be in the Europa League spots).
If they are small people try to get seats in the front few rows. The view at Goodison is diabolical! I say "seats", most will be standing anyway. Feed and water them in the town centre and get a bus or taxi to the ground as there's not many salubrious establishments around the ground and inside will be overpriced and underwhelming.
7 and 9. Looked yesterday and saw that they have family enclosures which would be great. They're pretty sheltered wee cherubs not sure it would be good for them thrown into the zoo
If that is the answer........ what was the question? Any source behind these statistics relating to the statement posed "how will etc. ect" On the plus side, at least the maths shown are correct, in adding up to 100%
Their sports stuff lags well behind their political modeling, but in this instance, it's interesting how closely they track with the odds. That could simply be a product of the truncated remaining schedule...if your model is off a little here or there, it'll distort things far more with 20 games to go than with 8. The big issue with SPI is that it's xG (and xG variants) based, and while I like x-G, there's a growing appreciation for the fact that some players consistently outperform that metric, and others underperform it, and it owes partially to the next horizon in determining the likelihood of a goal being scored: the positioning of the other players. If you're shooting from 15 yards straightaway on your preferred foot, those chances aren't created equally; if it's Jamie Vardy played in with none save the keeper to contend with, the xG from that situation is necessarily going to be higher than Nathan Redmond having to hit a first time ball through a thicket of players. Hence the overrating of our attack: we get a fair number of shots from relatively dangerous areas, in situations that mitigate the danger somewhat, taken by players who aren't noted finishers. Same thing is happening with Palace; SPI rates them extremely well in attack, because they're currently seventh in xG, yet they're 19th in goals from open play. Some of that is Benteke's struggles (and he has historically rated pretty well in xG), but they also just have a lot of players who struggle to hit the target...when your three leaders in shots taken are a confidence-shy Benteke, plus Zaha and Townsend, you're going to generate and then squander a lot of half-chances.
So our chances of reaching an FA cup final are 50/50 if we stay up? And 0% if we get relegated? I don’t understand.
I guess if your model/odds are out of line with everyone elses, it's probably wrong. But yeah the difference between 26% and 36% means less now. I'm interested in who regresses to the mean and who has other underlying problems. My working theory of the season is: lots of people agree that football is a "weak link" sport (not sure who invented that idea). And we're a mid table team with potential which, for complicated reasons, has given Shane Long 1200 minutes up front.
For what it's worth, I am 100% sure we will stay up after the change of manager. Love him or loath him, he tries to win games...and that is what we have been missing. We were at our best when we went after teams, when we stopped doing that we floundered. I fully expect to turn West Ham over, and then win at least 3 of the remaining games...I said when everyone thought we would go down when we were floundering before that we would beat some of the big boys, and we did exactly that. I feel the same way now - I think we will surprise a few people between now and the end of the season. I also have a sneaky feeling we will get to the FA Cup final. Two weeks ago I was 100% sure we would go down....
Who'd have thought 12 months ago that Mark Hughes would be our saviour? (and he hasn't played a premiership game with us yet!) 12 points from: West Ham (A) Arsenal (A) Chelsea (H) Leicester (A) Bournemouth (H) Everton (A) Man City (H) Swansea (A) 3 games we should win with the Hughes effect + 3 points from the other 5 games. Easy!
Which are the 3 games we should win? Fwiw I think 10 points would see us safe. But god knows where they're coming from - we'd better start with West Ham I suppose.
