Dicky Johnson has had an awful Cheltenham, doing an AP McCoy, pisses the english jockey title but can barely buy a winner at Cheltenham, hasn't even finished higher than 6th in a race yet. Weird, got a good book of rides tomorrow though potentially and imagine he won't care less if he wins the big one on Native
Phil Smith's handover notes to his handicapping successor following his retirement in the summer. Cheltenham Festival 2019: When those Irish bastards come over here for the festival use you skill and judgement to provide them with a completely unworkable mark, then whack an extra stone on them. If they carry the colours of O'Leary make it 2 stone . Definitly Red in the Gold Cup and still working through the handicaps to find the Elliott/Mullins plots. Duca de Thaix in the County, Carter McKay in the Martin Pipe.
I'll be keeping faith with Might Bite in the GC tomorrow I think. Unless it pisses down all day anyway. Might cover on Native River though, come to think.
I've had a fine week thanks. Love the festival win, lose or draw. If you want to take offence at what I said then crack on and fill yer boots. If you actually read what I wrote I was suggesting that the BHA handicapper who retires in the summer may reflect that having received plenty of stick from Irish trainers over the years for handicapping them out of contention when they come across the Irish Sea that they may have got the better of him and may refer to them (the trainers) as bastards. Just for the record I don't think the Irish are bastards. I'd make an exception for O'Leary however. He's an utter bastard.
Will stick with Definitly Red in the big one today. Guess must be fair with Forza Milan yesterday in the Pertemps, as something must have been amiss with him, surely? Can't believe he was just sulking? I am trying hard not to! Ah, have just spotted on the RP result sheet that Forza Milan broke a blood vessel and was also lame, so pulled-up of course. Wish this decent staying hurdler a full recovery. That's racing, got to take the knocks, lot worse for the poor old horse. Edit: Have noted Florida's post below on the 6-hours of heavy rain for which many thanks. So, have also backed Native River, and will have a sporting R/F with Definitly Red too!
Most important attribute for a horse this meeting has been to switch off, any sort of exuberant handy type has been walked past in the straight by horses who relaxed down the field and crept into it, which might be a worry for Might Bite. Some heavily exaggerated winning margins as a result in my opinion, the likes of Footpad, Shattered Love, Presenting Percy, Balko Des Flo. Look how Special Tiara, Black Corton, Saint Calvados and Faugheen finished. The likes of Petit Mouchoir, Monalee, Terrefort and Un De Sceaux probably should be marked up on their efforts.
Currently on my way to Cheltenham. Can’t bloody wait! Done some more write ups for today’s races. Good luck all! 1.30 Apple’s Shakira 7/4 She is a bit short in the betting now but I think Apple’s Shakira will take all the beating here. She has ran well all season and is proven at the track having only raced (and won) at Cheltenham in the UK. She comfortably beat Nube Negra two starts back who finished third in the Fred Winter on Wednesday. Those at the top of the market tend to do well in this race and she is definitely the most likely winner. All of Redicean’s wins have been at Kempton which is a completely different track to here so I couldn’t be having him. Stormy Ireland could be anything so I’m happy to let her win at the prices. Farclas and Mr Adjudicator bring pretty strong Irish form to the race and I fancy Farclas to turn around the form of last time out and he would be my one for the forecast. 2.10 Chesterfield 18/1 Seems to come into his own at this time of year and is back down to a mark of 140 having won off 143 in the Scottish champion hurdle last year when he beat a decent horse in zubayr. He had a spin in a jumpers bumper at kempton the other week which he won comfortably which should hopefully put him right for this, he won a novice handicap hurdle at Cheltenham a few years ago so should be fine at the track and although he probably prefers better ground, he has won on soft previously. I would also give chances to Duca De Thaix and Flying Tiger. DDT has some good form this year including finishing just over a length behind Delta Work who won the Pertemps on Thursday. His connections have also been flying over the last few days. Flying Tiger won the Fred Winter at the festival last year and has run well behind some very good horses this year without being punished by the handicapper. One of those two winning wouldn’t surprise but at the prices I’ll go for Chesterfield. 2.50 Poetic Rhythm 14/1 This is a race that I have a horrendous record in. The winner is always a horse with lots of experience and the well fancied horses with only a few starts always tend to struggle. For this reason I’m ruling out the current favourite Santini. Chef Des Obeaux brings some top quality form to the race, will love the ground and should run very well but at a bit of a bigger price I like Poetic Rhythm. He is a second season hurdler and won the grade 1 Challow Novices hurdle at Newbury last time out where the first two pulled miles clear of the rest. He needs to prove his stamina over 3 miles but his pedigree certainly suggests he will stay. 3.30 Might Bite 9/2 (NAP) Road To Respect 12/1 Bachasson 33/1 Might Bite has been my bet of the festival all week. He ticks all the boxes for this - he is a second season chaser, everything has gone right for him this season, previous festival winner and should be fine on the ground. To do what he did in the RSA last year and still beat Whisper was nothing short of remarkable. Admittedly it wasn’t the strongest RSA in the world but if he had stayed in a straight line he would have annihilated them. He will need to improve on the form of his King George win last time out but he improved tonnes for Cheltenham last year and I think he can do so again. There are legitimate doubts about most of the other horses in the race. I can’t be having Native River. Horses very rarely win the gold cup at their second attempt and I don’t think he really handles Cheltenham all too well. He has looked all over the place coming down the hill in the past and I just don’t think it’s a track that suits. Our Duke doesn’t jump well enough for me, Killultagh Vic can’t jump full stop and I can’t see Definitly Red, Total Recall, Minella Rocco and the rest being good enough. The main danger is definitely Road To Respect. He won at the festival last year and has improved massively this year winning a very strong Lexus over Christmas. He is another second year chaser that has had everything go right for him this season and I can see him running a huge race. There are slight doubts about the ground but I will be backing him as he definitely has a big chance of winning. At a bigger price I can see Bachasson running well and sneaking a place. I would be surprised if he was good enough to win but the softer/heavier the ground the better for him. He beat A Toi Phil by 13 lengths last time out who is a very solid graded horse in Ireland. This will be the longest trip he has faced so will be a test of his stamina but at 33/1 he is worth an each way punt. 4.10 Burning Ambition 7/2 Unioniste 20/1 The top two in the market (Burning Ambition and Wonderful Charm) will take the world of beating here. With the ground as it is I would definitely prefer Burning Ambition out of the two. He is progressive and finished not far behind Gilgamboa last time, a horse that is a strong graded class horse. He has Jamie Codd on board and has to go close. At a bigger price I quite like Unioniste for Paul Nicholls. He has taken very well to hunter chasing and has absolutely hacked up in his last two starts winning by 68 and 22 lengths. He should like the ground and was a high class staying chaser in his day. I would be slightly concerned by him having David Maxwell on board who is a pretty appalling jockey but at 20/1 I’m hoping he could run into a place. 4.50 Carter McKay 16/1 Carter McKay was highly thought of as a bumper horse last season before disappointing in the champion bumper. He bolted up first time out this season before finishing 3rd in two strong grade 1 hurdles. Whilst those results showed him to be just short of top class, he gets in here on what appears to be a fairly lenient handicap mark. Willie Mullins has a good record in this race and his 2nd, 3rd, 4th strings have been running well at the festival all week. He would be my pick in a wide open race. 5.30 Bouvreuil 14/1 Le Prezien 16/1 Bouvreuil ran a blinder in the Brown Advisory plate at the festival last year finishing third behind Road To Respect who is well fancied for the gold cup earlier in the Card. He was rated 145 that day and is down to a mark of 142 in this. JP McManus targets this race every year and this race will have been the target for him all year. He has to go close. A bit of a riskier one is Le Prezien, also owned by JP McManus. He isn’t the most reliable of horses and doesn’t appear to always try his best. He was sent off 7/2 favourite for the race last year and disappointed a bit finishing in 8th. He has finished 2nd and 3rd in valuable handicaps earlier in the season and think the price disparity between the last two years is too big so will be having an each way bet at 16/1.
Well, as Mr Russell is having such a nice time in Gloucestershire, I'll throw a few pennies on him winning under Top Gamble in the 5.30 All the rest is just window dressing, really The price for Saphir Du Reu is also way, way too good for us each way backers, cannot resist that for a horse that did well last year. Mr Henderson could have a 1-2-3 in the 2.50, wouldn't that be nice. Anyway, have a great day, I'll be watching with a beer in hand alongside our Chester Races bunch with Ekbalco99 likely finding all the winners! Come On !
Off in to cheltenham....and can't wait to get to the course...bets on before I start on another pint! Apple's Shakira Spiritofthegames Chef des obeaux/Callett Mad Native River and Our Duke Burning Ambition In the last Rock the World and Don't touch it.. I think Henderson is gonna have a good day today and Johnson will be smiling around 3.40pm ... Good luck all
As I so nearly struck the jackpot with my patent yesterday I will try and repeat the dose with these 3 today: 2.10 Lagostovegas 3.30 Native River 4.50 Diese Des Bieffes Happy to let Apples Shakira win without my money (she is very short now and has my friend Barry riding )
Last day and it feels to me like my sense's have been in overdrive all week. Some really good races, great stories and a few oops moments for good measure. Anyway, it is the last day so here are my final darts in what's been a ok festival regarding returns for me... 1:30 - Apples Shakira 2:10 - Flying Tiger & A Hare Breath 2:50 - Chriss Dream, Talkischeap 3:30 - Definitely Red, Road To Respect 4:10 - Virak, Sir Jack Yeats 4:50 - Tommy Rapper, Carter McKay 5:30 - Bouvreiul, Vaniteux Apples, Flying Tiger, Chriss Dream, Definitely Red, Road To Respect & Virak carrying the extra weight of my money, the others are just fancies in what looks a really tricky day... Good luck to all once again...
13:30 Apple's Shakira 14:10 Whiskey Sour (EW) 14:50 Chef Des Obeaux 15:30 Our Duke 16:10 Pacha Du Polder (EW) I'm intrigued by Pacha Du Polder - especially with a jockey who is basically on her second competitive ride (on same horse). Does anyone know anything about her? Miss H C Tucker - is she a relative of Stephen Tucker?
Apple's Shakira Flying Tiger Chef Des Obeaux / Poetic Rhthym Might Bite / Saphir Du Rheu (5 places Sky) Wonderful Charm Early Doors Bouvreuil / Born Survivor (Skeltons at it?)
Waiting a long time for Bunrning Ambition and ... 16,50 Despite carrying the top weight Blow By Blow 14/1 I think he has a great chance. Winner of Bumper Gr.1 if he comes in the form he exhibited less than a month ago I think he is above all.
