Top 4 tussle

This is a football thread.

 

We're averaging 2 points per game. Keep it up and we're on 76 and that really ought to do it.
Depends on whether or not Arsenal and/or Spurs stop messing about.

 

City would need a spectacular crash to not win now. Second is the real interesting contest; can we beat Chelsea to take the runners up spot?

It will be also interesting to see how far United fall. If Arsenal win their game in hand they will only be 6 points in safety above 5th.

My top 4 prediction:
City by a long way. (Gap probably same as it is now, with key injuries and the momentum breaking I doubt they will extend further from Chelsea)

Chelsea (they will eventually have a safe gap above us)

Liverpool

United just holding on to top 4 going to last game of season.


Of course, it all depends on transfer window... Naturally all speculation. If form holds decent and we don't have another slump like the one we started the season with, I think 3rd is a very realistic target. 2nd an optimistic target.

4th or lower would disappoint me.

 

To crown it, we are in top four and wins the champion league.

 

In general I'd agree with that. Its a pragmatic approach

however i just feel there's games we ought to be winning by rights that we've already shown we can win this season in there.

 

Historically in the Klopp era we've won more games against top teams than we would expect and away form has been better than home form.

We don't follow the traditional "these games will be easy and these games will be hard" formula. I like your approach of "x points" every 5 games approach better. As long as we get 10 points every 5 games we're on a good target.

 

A block of 5?

 

thats fair.

I'm just pointing out theres 11 games there to win that'd i'd be disappointed if we don't win the vast majority of.

its 8 points every 4 games btw for me. 2 wins 2 draws.. which gets us to exactly 76points from here. or 3 wins one loss.. whatever..

 

thats rogers talk.

he learned it off me and added one... the ****ing toe rag

 

I prefer a block of 38.

 

We are assuming that 76 would be enough to get top 4. I think there might be one scenario where 76 just misses out. Probably more realistic to keep track of the 5th and 6th teams. As long as we keep that 4th or better position , and dont get overtaken fron now to the 38th week, we are ok irrespective of how many points we collect from now on

 

4th place isn't guaranteed top 4. We need 2nd or 3rd to guarantee top 4.

 

eh?? how does that work out?

 

Well I dunno.

the points tallys now are:

utd 47
chelsea 45
liverpool 44
arsenal 38
spurs 37

now spurs somehow have managed to get 2 games in hand SOMEHOW despite the fixutres not being fixed.

So do we give them 6 points as worst case?

Really Then spurs could be on 43 points in 5th.

43+33 = 76.

so 33 points for 16 games = 2 points per game more or less so thats clearly possible for even spurs.

If we say right ok. lets just say arsenal and spurs have 41 points after 22 games. Fiar? maybe.

41+35= 76 so 35 from 16 = 2.18 points or 11 wins and 2 draws out of 16.

Can that be done. yes, not easily but yes it could be.


This goes back to my point about arsenal imploding and spurs having a crisis. It'd be very nice to just gap these two now and have them focus on other things

For me arsenal have this fall back of europa league. With ozil, sanchez issues and excuses about injuries and fixtures coming #I could see them vanish off the chase if they feel the europa is the best route to CL.

Spurs are the worry for me. Spurs have proved in the past a run of 11ins in 16 games something they can do.

ideally they will over use kane and alli and burn them out whereas we've at least tried to keep our best players fit.

It'll be interesting to see what's needed in the end.

 

he is talking about someone in 5th winning the CL

the rules are:

1. Europe a league winners go to CL (arsenal potentially)

2. Say then the CL winners are 5th in the table (utd, chelsea, spurs or Us)

3. the champions will be city so will qualify

4. the rules state only 5 form any one country.


so:

city champs
arsenal europa
say spurs in 5th and european champions

that means only 2nd and 3rd get CL spots.

The chances of spurs or us or even utd winning the CL are minute TBH

 

We're about 7% to win, with Man Utd and Spurs behind us

 

7% in a 16 horse race... not bad.

 

just as a final addition.

We are one point better than same point in 2013/14 and one point off last year.

a run of 11 wins in a row turned a decent season into a good one in 2013/14.

can we kick on this year like that?

 

I prefer a block of cheese

 

Yep. Never thought about that. But the chances of the 5th or 6th place team winning the champions league AND Arsenal outside top 4 winning the Europa together is very very minute. If that happens it will make football history: Two English teams winning both European trophies in the same season.