Impossible to say really. If Faugheen returns anywhere near his best I can't imagine Yorkhill taking him on. GC best option imo. Would be a danger in any race!!
Only race I'd be confident of opposing him in would be the Gold Cup for me. Form of his point win over 3m nothing special, and I'd be surprised if he got up that hill as has a tendency to pull pretty hard early in races. Our Duke my fancy for the Gold Cup at this stage, that Irish national win was so easy and he doesn't lack for speed either
Anyone think Definitely Red could make up in to a Cheltenham Gold Cup horse? I wonder if he will improve again this season?..I saw in the tabloids that this is likely to be the horses aim...
Somewhere between 5-10 lbs short of what will be required in my opinion. He'll start off in the Charlie Hall which I suspect will be about his level. Some very talented staying chasers around this term - Thistlecrack, Sizing John, Might Bite, Our Duke, Native River, Disko to mention but a few.
It will be interesting to see how he gets on. He would not need to improve much in my eyes to be a gold cup contender. If he wins the Charlie hall convincingly then for sure. He definitely stays and you have to stay to win a gold cup which i dont think Thistlecrack for example will do. Definitely Red reminds me a little (not sure why) of Native River. Anyhooo available at 50/1 1/4 odds with bet365. Don't do ante post bets but for those that do it could prove to be a good bet... I am looking forward to seeing how sizing john does this year especially as he will be going for the 1 million bonus..
I agree about his stamina but I just think the above-mentioned Our Duke, plus maybe Minella Rocco, are equally endowed with stamina but may just be a touch classier? It will be interesting to see how Definitly Red gets on at Wetherby, he is very likely to run into Cue Card who remains a very good yardstick. I think the staying chase division is at a very, very high standard this season. There may not be a Kauto Star or Denman but there are any number of very good horses and it promises to be a vintage season in the division
Re Definitly Red I’d be very wary of connections opting to run him in a few Graded races over the next 2-3 months with a view to getting his weight down for the ‘Grand National’. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more… He’s currently perched on 159. Get that down half a stone or so and he’d be a serious contender for that £1 million race (ran off 149 last season but was seriously hampered at the 1st Becher’s which all but ruled him out of the race). Re the CGC I’ve still got it in the back of my mind that Whisper is going to do something. He’d be a negative on almost every stat but something about that horse is making me think he’s going to be a serious player in March (but maybe less so before then). 33’s really is too big. As is the 50’s about my old fave, Bristol De Mai. He’d only be a serious player on soft/heavy but I tell you what if a ‘rain dance’ was incredibly successful on the evening of 15 March, next term, in all likelihood he’d be a single figure price come tapes up (and he was A OK of course). This one’s win at Haydock, in January, was unquestionably one of the best efforts I’ve seen for quite a while in a staying chase. Monitoring both but not yet got involved.
I agree an exciting season ahead for the staying chasers potentially...I read somwhere that definitely red is rated 158/159. I am pretty certain that was the sort of rating held by minella rocco and also native river at the start of last season and look at the heroics they performed. He s not got many miles on the clock definitely red and i can see further improvement coming. I like his galloping style although i am not totally convinced he likes Cheltenham which is always a big plus. That said i think he has won at the track. I shall be watching this horse closely in the season ahead..
My Triumph Hurdle fancy (ludicrous to have such a thing at this stage!) MALAYA is down to run at Chepstow on Sunday and I have got Paddys to add her to the site today at 20/1. Malaya bolted up on hurdles debut (by 30 lengths) and won a listed race at Auteuil against the best 3yo fillies in France. The reason for the investment now is that there is a chance she will be pitted against another of the current Triumph favourites Gumball on Sunday, and if so I fully expect her to take care of that one on the bridle
Interesting Barney...I m not sure you are right with a national plot job...too many things can go wrong and they tried it last year...just one of the many reasons I don't get on ante post as a lot can happen...we shall see what transpires....
Have topped up on a few more: Fayonagh - 5s in the Mares novice - owners are breeders and think they will be happy to mop up the Mares races at the festival for the next 2 years then maybe have a go at the boys in a championship race. Interviews with Elliot seem to point that way too. Samcro in the neptune at 16s Annamix at 14s for the supreme (v small but seems to be willies talking horse) Holding on to back Apples Jade at 3s for the Mares Hurdle - no need to rush as cant see her shortening too much between now and christmas.
I've gone overboard already. Finians Oscar (any race) and Samcro (Neptune) by far my two biggest punts. The Arkle i've backed River Wylde and Movewiththetimes (out this Friday I think), Champion Hurdle i've lumped on Buveur D'air each way (seems by far the safest bet), and my other big fancy i'm on is Topofthegame in the RSA. That one showed good form over 2 1/2 miles last year but should really come into his own over 3 miles. The form of his point win is strong and he's just a huge horse, an extra summer behind him and he should be a beast this year. The Supreme looks tough to assess at this stage, the Champion Chase also (Altior/Douvan/Min/Great Field), I'd be confident on the Cross Country winner being Cause of Causes or Auvergnat, like Fayonagh for the Mares Novice but would fear the likes of Salsaretta and Dame De Compagnie (connections for both seem to think they're very good) as we don't know yet how their form stacks up. Would give long shot chances to Ravenhill Road in the Albert Bartlett and Stay Humble for the bumper.
Official ratings: Definitly Red 159 Minella Rocco 166 (and a second in the 2017 renewal on his CV) Our Duke 167 Sizing John 168 Thistlecrack 170 As I said, at the moment I would see Definitly Red just below the standard required to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup but if he romps away with the Charlie Hall that could change my view. His Cheltenham record over obstacles reads "Pulled Up" in the Albert Bartlett and "Fell" in the National Hunt Chase. He won the big bumper at the track on New Years Day 2015. One thing I would say - it is this season or never for him in the CGC as he will be 9 come the start of the race. Let's wait and see what he does at Wetherby
I think thats a good assessment Oddy but what I was homing in on was the ratings for some of these horses at the start of last season. I am sure native river and minella rocco started last season around 158/159 so it's possible to achieve. As you say wait and see what happens in a few weeks time.
Yep, everyone knew Native River was several pounds well in when lining up for the Welsh National off a mark of 155, having destroyed the Hennessy field off the same mark. He was rated 168 thereafter and for me he was the best staying chaser last season. That he was beaten only 3 lengths in the Gold Cup having won the West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby, The Hennessy, The Welsh National and The Denman Chase speaks volumes about his resilience. I think they are doing exactly the right thing this time around by starting him later and aiming him primarily at the Gold Cup and then see about Aintree afterwards. He could end up being the highest rated chaser in Tizzard's yard come May 2018.
A high class handicapper who could eke out the improvement to be competitive in the 2018 Gold Cup. His Cheltenham form would put me off. Un Temps Pour Tout on the other hand has a similar rating and has fine record at the track. He is also 50/1.
Would love to see Apple's Jade have a go at the boys in the World/Stayers Hurdle, but I get the feeling she is going to make the Mares Hurdle her dynasty.
