GBP/USD has been steadily rising in 2017, it is now only 10 points off the average of the previous two years, so the trend of Sterling is one of rising value. GBP/Euro apart from the spike in 2015 is not far off the average for the last 8 or 9 years. I agree uncertainty will continue and there may be further devaluations but Sterling will recover to the levels predicted by the currency experts.
I was quoting the result of the respected You Gov poll. I'm quite happy for the UK government to invest in Northern Ireland, I'm also pleased there will be more cash for Peter's constituency in Wellingborough when we stop paying large sums to Brussels.
The UK's credit rating has been cut over concerns about the UK's public finances and fears Brexit could damage the country's economic growth. Moody's, one of the major ratings agencies, downgraded the UK to an Aa2 rating from Aa1. It said leaving the European Union was creating economic uncertainty, at a time when the UK's debt reduction plans were already off course. Downing Street said the firm's Brexit assessments were "outdated". http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41369239
What's that got to do with anything? I said yesterday that our credit rating would fall, and you claimed it wouldn't. Another brilliant Brexit effect Especially with the Tories still borrowing billions each year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...highlighting-brexit-concerns-official-emails/ Even the Torygraph is starting to change its tune
I know I'm a bit behind on this, but you would've thought that someone with a K would know how to address someone else by their proper title and use it in a letter - Foreign Secretary is just the shortened version for ease of use, but he is in fact HM Minister for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs. The last word is a bit unfortunate when used in relation to this particular holder of the office.
I think the author of the letter was quite annoyed, and probably wrote it in a rush. I've been guilty of doing so with posts on here in the past... At least Bojo keeps his Affairs British
http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128 One for you SH, from a Leave website and what OFH was trying in vain to explain to you a few days ago (when you claimed to be an expert on the matter) We can't just fall back on WTO tariffs, the complications would cripple trade and cost a fortune to exporters. Somehow I doubt we'll see much of you on here today...Or you'll just come back and try to talk about France again.
Is this what anyone wanted at the outset ? Did those who voted for Brexit invisage that we would still be tied to the EU. until 2021 ? 5 years after the initial referendum result. Did remainers want to be involved in 5 years of uncertainty ? What we are actually getting is something which nobody voted for. We are seeing our PM. asking for yet more time and more uncertainty. We are floating in a vacuum where all courses of action appear questionable - yet to remain in limbo is unthinkable. We could take course 1, which is to either ignore the referendum result or demand a second one, subsequently withdrawing our Article 50 application. This course is laden with problems, not least the loss of face involved in wasting so much time and then going back on it. Course 2 is the damage limitation solution (or Norway solution) which is also problematic, being something which neither brexiters nor remainers wanted at the outset. Course 3 is a 'clean break' solution which may involve paying up quickly (or not if you want to be downgraded to rock bottom by Moody's ), granting all EU. citizens (in Britain) their existing rights (perhaps even enhancing them with full voting rights) but then controlling newcomers. Finally Ireland - this will be a British/Irish solution not a European one. Do all this quickly and then leave, hoping perhaps that trade negotiations can follow once outside of the EU. Whatever course is taken it should be done consequently (even if it doesn't look that attractive) because markets need clarity. It is relatively clear that the Liberals would choose course 1, Labour probably leans towards course 2 whereas the Tories appear to have no direction at all. Whatever happens should happen quickly.
I think that there could be another alternative that you haven't mentioned, the one of constantly kicking the can further down the road. From the speech yesterday we gathered that we are asking for departure in 2019, but then 2 years of being both inside and outside of the single market at the same time. I say outside as well because we will have no say in how it moves forward. We get to let us say 2020 and details are proving difficult, so we ask to continue the discussions for a further 2 years. The speech did leave an open ended option. It was known to any thinking person that the devil would be in the detail, and there was none of it yesterday. The Norway and Canadian models didn't suit what we wanted, and the tone seemed to be that we could still have our cake and eat it. Rees-Mogg was on TV last night and couldn't answer the most basic of questions. The country is wasting huge amounts of time and money on this. If she really wanted to go abroad to make the speech she could have made it in the entrance of a local Aldi store.
Much of the article exaggerated the procedures for importing and exporting under WTO rules. Most of the UK 's trade is done under this system. The threat of regular customs searches and delays do not happen in real life. I used to import over 200 40ft containers a year and many pallets by air. It was extremely rare that any shipment was x-rayed even less common was any shipment physically searched. The cost of the services of freight forwarders is minute compared to the value of the cargo, I cannot imagine it will add much to most cargos. When the free trade with the rest of the world kicks in it will alleviate much of the paperwork currently used so will save money. The UK is already geared up to mirror product regulations in the EU, there is no reason this could not continue.
So you didn't read the article and you're ignoring the implications of EU trading, let alone when it comes to perishable goods or manufacturing parts which will add unecessary costs and delays. Still waiting on some concrete examples of 'free trade deals' that will replace our current EU deals? Are we going to start sending car parts to the US and back by ship? Air? What happens when we lose our EU flight passport? Not all flights are direct.
Just because you have some knowledge of importing it doesn't mean it is the same for exporting. The UK has a shortage of customs staff and things get waived through at present because of it. Try exporting and it is a very different tale. I used to, and materials that we had fabricated could be lost for weeks in customs if they ever turned up at all.
Option 3 would not produce a UK credit downgrading to the extent you predict. This week the UK has slipped from the second highest to the third highest mainly due to the relaxation of the government 'so called austerity' programme. France has been at this level for many years and other EU countries have levels way way below the UK. As world interest rate are extremely low it matters less which level a country is on if near the top. Obviously struggling EU countries with very poor rating do pay higher rates for their borrowing because often there is no sign of any significant improvement. I agree progress needs to be rapid, either a mutually beneficial agreement or a complete breakdown so businesses can prepare for the leave date.
Slowly, very slowly, reality is kicking in. What we can be sure of is that it will not be quick as the government is still trying to keep the warring members of the party happy at the same time. It cannot be seen to favour one side or the other, although the more extreme are being very gently pushed aside.
I think anybody with any knowledge of the EU knows that the priority for the eurocrats is to discourage any contagion from Brexit. They have shown a willingness to even indulge in self harm on EU businesses to safeguard their political experiment. They have proved callous enough to deliberately and knowingly inflict poverty and misery on millions of their own citizens so are quite capable of causing further damage for the noble cause. The UK really ought to get the hell out a.s.a.p.
There are not many who actually know the workings of the EU. In relation to what happens in Brussels, how many people actually know the separate functions of the EU. Commission, the EU. Parliament, the European Council and the Council of Europe ? Or how they are each elected. So who are the Eurocrats you are referring to SH. ? Do you consider it unreasonable to ask that Britain pays all the dues it signed up for ? Or unreasonable that they should be concerned about EU. citizens losing rights in the UK. - possibly becoming illegal citizens overnight through no fault of their own ?
You misread what I wrote - option 3 would only cause a collapse in Britain's credit rating if they left the EU. with unpaid debts.
