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Effect of Brexit

Discussion in 'Watford' started by Davylad, Mar 26, 2016.

  1. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    It looks as if the PM is wasting her time offering to pay the EU up to 2020. She should follow the advice of Lord King, the former Governor of the Bank of England, and Lord Lawson, the ex Chancellor of the Exchequer and just leave without a deal. There is no prospect of a fair deal as it is not in the interest of the EU. This will give the government time to plan the exit as smooth as possible and then trade under WTO rules.
     
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  2. oldfrenchhorn

    oldfrenchhorn Well-Known Member
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    As May prepared for her latest speech of a lifetime, equally significant was a blizzard of tweets from Johnson’s ally, Dominic Cummings, campaign director of Vote Leave and widely seen as the strategic brain behind Brexit. These were scathing about “the shambles now unfolding”, which he blamed on the “historic unforgivable blunder” of triggering article 50 too fast and, before adequate preparation.

    He is right: Britain is in a sorry mess and part of the problem was entering negotiations too soon. Article 50 was designed with a two-year time frame to deter departures. Who designed Article 50? A Brit!
     
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  3. Tobes

    Tobes Warden
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    The same Cummings who admitted that the NHS lie - that they knew was a lie - was almost certainly the deciding factor in the referendum, based on Leave's own research.

    Amazing how this hindsight driven crap was never mentioned at any point prior. The EU refused to even discuss Brexit before A50'was triggered
     
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  4. Tobes

    Tobes Warden
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    A pair of ancient old Brexiteers who have sod all to lose from the ensuing car crash, funny that
     
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  5. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    One of the most experienced Governor's of the BoE and one of the most successful CoE's, funny that.
     
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  6. Tobes

    Tobes Warden
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    Boom and Bust Lawson, who saw us on the way to 15% interest rates, yeah right oh.
     
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  7. J T Bodbo

    J T Bodbo Well-Known Member

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    Lawson was probably the worst C of E that we have ever had-and believe me there is no shortage of competition.
     
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  8. Toby

    Toby GC's Life Coach

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    Growth forecast for the UK have dropped from 1.8% to 1%, lower than any countries of the G7, lower than Italy, France or Spain, even though someone thinks we're booming.

    Debt levels for UK citizens at unsustainable levels.

    Interest levels about to rise, so house repossesions will start soon.

    Euro climbing whilst UK £ stagnates.

    Well done TM <applause>
     
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  9. Tobes

    Tobes Warden
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    We're getting back control though...of something...........

    So we can get rid of all of the Laws that the EU inflicted on us that we all hate apparently................only literally no-one can give an example of one that they can't wait to see gone...............

    Think of all those exciting trade deals that'll see our shores flooded with cheap inferior crap from half way around the globe.....exciting times.
     
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  10. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    Not sure where you get your figures from? The IMF's latest forecast is 1.7%. In October 2016 it forecast 1.1% for 2017, it raised it to 1.5% in January then 2% in April. It has just revised to 1.7%. It obviously always under values and is often wrong.
    The OECD prediction for 2018 looks as pessimistically dodgy as did the original IMF's for 2017. Forecasters have consistently got the UK growth wrong since the referendum, I expect that to continue. The UK has had consistently better growth than the Euro for years, if we need to have lower growth for a couple of years as the price for throwing off the EU shackles then I would say it was worth it.

    If interest rates rise a paltry 0.25% it will make hardly any difference, those with a mortgage have been quids in in the last few years due to the extremely low interest rates.

    Sterling has made a consistent improvement over the last year against the USD which is more important than GBP/Euro. It is at the highest rate since the vote. GBP/Euro is also near its peak for the last month and about average for the last year. A stronger Euro will damage exports from the EU although with its many problems the Euro may not stay popular for very long.
     
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  11. Toby

    Toby GC's Life Coach

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    France's growth forecast, the country you take so much glee in knocking down, is higher than the UK's.

    The Eurozone is booming.

    Brexit is proving more and more stupid by the day, but oh wait, that's Project Fear <wah>
     
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  12. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    France's growth is better than the UK's for the first time in years - wow!!!

    Try telling the millions of unemployed in France, Spain, Italy Greece etc that the Eurozone is booming, they would laugh in your face.

    Project Fear has been wrong so many times it is becoming a bit of a joke.
     
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  13. Toby

    Toby GC's Life Coach

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    Says Team £350M.

    Tell the people of the UK that use foodbanks, can't afford a house, in massive amounts of debt and on zero hour contracts that the UK economy is doing so well and you'll get the same response.

    And you lot will still probably blame the EU.
     
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  14. Tobes

    Tobes Warden
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    The forecasts and the current economic figures, show that the Brexit decision has damaged and will continue to damage - the UK economy, it's a simple fact.

    The BoE are over a barrel with interest rates, as the current inflation is not being driven by an overheating of the economy, merely as the result of the tanked pound and our deficit. So increasing rates would be counter productive as it would potentially damage consumer demand further.

    As for interest rates in general, we've had record low rates for nearly a decade, and a large proportion of the working population have moved house during that period, borrowing according to current affordability and not factoring in large hikes in rates. A rise in rates over time of as little as 2/3% would see catastrophic results as values would drop, and people would be trapped in neg eq with unaffordable mortgages at worst, or at best a large squeeze on their disposable income and thus on our consumer lead economy.
     
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  15. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    There will always be lots of people that are unable or unwilling to manage their finances properly. There is a distinct lack of personal responsibility in the UK today.
     
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  16. Toby

    Toby GC's Life Coach

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    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...usehold-debts-warns-moodys-amid-lending-boom/

    From a right-wing source, so you'll probably believe it.

    You do realise that in real terms UK workers are poorer now than they were 10 years ago? How will Brexit fix this?

    I've yet to see any proof of Brexit increasing wages or reducing the cost of living.
     
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  17. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    Lenders and borrowers should have built in the possibility of rate rises. This also comes down to personal choices.
     
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  18. superhorns

    superhorns Well-Known Member

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    Workers are poorer because the UK governments have been trying to limit the effect of the financial crash and Labour's mishandling of the economy.

    We have not reached Brexit yet just a decision to leave so far.
     
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  19. Tobes

    Tobes Warden
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    Only a large proportion didn't, the banks know they didn't, the BoE know they didn't and the Govt know they didn't.

    So it's an unfortunate reality that millions of home owners would be scuppered by rates going up even a relatively small amount over time, let alone up to the 15% of the Tory boom and bust years. We'd be living in caves if that happened again ffs.
     
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  20. Toby

    Toby GC's Life Coach

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    Every time we prove that Labour don't mishandle the economy, and you refuse to believe it because it doesn't suit your rabid right-wing agenda.

    How have UK governments 'trying to limit the effects of the financial crash' affected the incomes of non-civil servants?

    You also avoided the Brexit question.

    In your own time.
     
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