That is exactly what Hammond was saying. The longer the doubt goes on for business the worse the economy will become. He can see the figures and knows what is happening. As I reported yesterday the MP for Dover also said no deal would bring the town to a standstill. Seems you place your faith in selling flip flops to Tonga. I don't share your blind faith that this will be a larger market than getting car parts into and out of our ports.
Oh FFS.... The Institute for Economic affairs is a right wing think tank, somewhat trumpesque in their thought processes. Which adds credence to my earlier post that the Guardian, despite being left leaning, offers a more rounded view of what is going on... unlike those self serving sycophantic rags you usually read.
Hahahahaha, so you put your stow in Hammond until he says something that's a potential negative about Brexit based solely on reality, and then he's dismissed as a rabid remainer Brexiteers like you are plentiful, weak on facts, fairly blank on how things actually work and what the practical issues will be, but massive on baseless 'it'll all be sound honest' meaningless rhetoric. Rule Britannia
The UK does most of its trade with the world under WTO rules. There should be no physical and technical reasons why trading with the EU under these rules, temporally or permanently will not work. The problem will be not just be the lack of cooperation from the EU side but a determination to show other members to highlight problems. The UK Border Force and Kent police have had years of experiencing problems caused by industrial action from a variety of French protest groups selfishly damaging others to further their own causes. We have seen French customs deliberately under staffed on instructions from their political masters. The only thing that matters to the EU is to keep the dodgy project on the road and punish anyone daring to reject it.
The Freight Forwarding Association have said that the loss of a frictionless border for goods will add between 2-4 days on a trip to the EU and back. You appear to have an issue comprehending facts, there is a massive physical issue with size of our current customs facilities compared to what they'd need to be to process all EU goods post Brexit.
You seem to know little about the process. Most of the UK's business is done under WTO rules using freight forwarders. They deal with all of the paperwork, there is no need for hold ups at the border. A very very small number of consignments are ever checked especially when a trading pattern builds up. Customs and Excise then do random audits at the freight forwarders and at the premises of the import / exporters. Of course those involved in transport want to make the system as easy as possible but WTO trading can be simple.
Goods are not released until the import duty is paid under the current arrangements for importing goods from outside the EU. Again you post waffle that is unresearched garbage. If the UK takes the cliff edge option of 'no deal' then immediately the number of imported items that require customs clearance increases overnight from the current 55 million, to 255 million.
Wrong, you obviously have not heard of bonded warehouses. My company consistently holds in stock 3,000 - 3,500 pallets of stock at any one time, Some in bonded warehouses most in our own warehouse. Customs have financial arrangements with freight forward companies, importers / exporters have accounts with them. Custom clearance is done with little checking, we used a company many years ago that got the tariff codes all wrong, it was not picked up until an audit a couple of years later. Nearly 60% of UK business is done with non EU countries, this is growing, obviously trade with the EU is consistently shrinking. It could be an excellent time to invest in a freight forwarding company if no deal is the outcome.
Hahahaha, no mate I've never heard of bonded warehousing 55 million transactions today - 255 million transactions if we take a no deal Brexit.......we'd better start building a few more warehouses eh? Welcome to the point
Nearly 60% of UK trade is handled without a fuss under WTO rules, any increase should not be a problem if both parties are willing for it to succeed. Your figures seem mighty suspect and that assumes no change in trading volumes and patterns. Any increase in costs importing from the EU will price favour imports from outside of the EU especially when free trade deals are implemented. The level of trade with the EU is bound to diminish at a faster rate as EU goods become less competitive. Any hold ups at Dover will please other ports. The EU will try its hardest to make trading with it difficult if we leave without deal, no wonder we want to ditch these bullies.
The figures are fact your simplistic 60% takes no account of the number of transactions and the number of transactions would increase by 200 million Free trade deals with non EU countries will take years to implement ffs, and then we're back to the 'bullies' line We chose to leave, they're going to protect their interests ahead of ours, the use of the word bully is childish inanity, and is wheeled out by idiots like Farage when the reality of our piss weak position in these negotiations is delved into. We knew all of this before the vote, and now people are acting surprised that the EU aren't going to allow us to have our cake and eat it, the nasty blighters
Unemployment in the UK has fallen to its lowest level in 42 years, down to 4.3%. Didn't the remain prophets of doom predict mass unemployment after the Brexit vote?
I am afraid you are confusing yourself SH. You are talking about items that can be brought into the country, stored, and released when the need arises. This is not what the 15,000 lorries a day passing through Dover are about. A crankshaft for a mini crosses the Channel three times before it has someone drive the car. A turbocharger for a lorry can cross five times. Any delays in that traffic moving and an entire production line can be brought to a halt. This is how modern industry works rightly or wrongly, and if the UK is seen as a bottle neck, industry will find a solution that removes the bottleneck. The longer products sit in your warehouse the less return you get daily on your investment. Industry has got around this problem with the just in time system. The effect will be that the UK will lose business and it doesn't matter what percentage of our trade that is, it is a loss. Factories will lose business, and to try and find somewhere out side the UK that wants to buy crankshafts or turbochargers is unrealistic. The Welsh government has raised similar concerns about the lack of infrastructure at it's ports and states that towns are overrun with lorries trying to cross to and from Ireland. The government has admitted that little has been done to discuss these infrastructure problems, and appears to be banking on a very long interim deal in the hope that it will save face.
Free trade deals only take years if the EU are involved. The eurocrats main aim is to frighten off other members from daring to reject their control. The march towards a United States of Europe is now on despite most EU citizens not wanting it, interesting times ahead.
No confusion at all, businesses find ways to adapt to changes in circumstances. There is no need for hold ups at ports unless the EU makes things difficult on purpose. As I previously explained there is no requirement to have a system where paperwork is physically checked at the border. The main problem will be if there is no deal the EU cannot allow the system to work efficiently, politically there needs to be pressure applied to any other dissenting voices around Europe.
The average time for a free trade deal to be implemented is 3 1/2 years. There's no March for a federal Europe as there's no will for it amongst the populous. We'd have always resisted it and used our veto to reject any federal ideals that ever got beyond the 'flying a kite' stage, same as we did over the Euro. What we've done is economic suicide.
SH thinks everything is fine but the leaving talks with the EU haven't covered most of the complicated bits. Banking passport? Not even discussed yet. Airports? Not even discussed yet. EU citizens' rights post-Leave? Not discussed yet. ... I order IT equipment for my company, and not only have prices risen by about 20% but the items are delivered from warehouses all over Europe. The added costs and delays will just be another additional pain for businesses. Also, I thought this country was full, which is why rabid Brexiters were so happy to get rid of all these pesky foreigns with their funny languages coming over here. Unemployment levels are at their lowest...AND WE'RE IN THE EU. This is what I don't get, if the country has apparently been doing so well in the EU (even though wages have stagnated for decades and the cost of living is rising month by month), why would we leave? And please stop with the 'interesting times' line, you rolled that out with the rise of the Far Right in Austria, France and Holland. Why does that please you so much?
What is this system you talk about? The government admits it doesn't exist, and it's advisers say it could take ten years to implement. Who is going to apply this pressure? The UK's voice will be lost as it shouts from across the Channel. Yes business will find the way out as I suggested above, they will buy elsewhere. The trade deals between the EU and Australia and New Zealand are due to be tied up by the end of 2019. No great time to sort those two out.
The EU populous do not matter because they will not be consulted. The eurocrats have history of not accepting any view which varied from theirs. You obviously have not listened to the Macron boy recently and Juncker this morning. If Macron can get his own house in order, (doubtful) then Merkel will look at further shared financial responsibilities starting with a European Finance minister as a prelude to tax and spend integration. Ireland will soon be joining the UK outside of the EU if that looks likely.
The system already exists with the rest of the world using WTO rules. There is no reason why the present paperwork, which works fine, would not be suitable for this additional business.
