Ravens Pass and Henrythenavigator were top milers, Galileo Gold, The Ghurka and Ribchester not so much. Ribchester couldnt win a Dubai Duty Free never mind a BC Classic. Galileo Gold lost his form more so than Ribchester improving rapidly, he was tailed off every run after the Sussex.
Churchill is a big strong 3yo and with the weight concession could give Ribchester a tough race. Now, looking for a case for Zelzal; firstly I would disregard last year's form and concentrate on this year's. Churchill beat Al Wukair by 1¼l in the 2000 Gns. Taareef beat Al Wukair by 2l after beating Zelzal by 1¾l. However in that race Zelzal was given far too much to do and running on final furlong. Given the trainer of Zelzal also trains Taareef and the Sussex has been the aim of Zelzal all season his run (first time out this year) against Taareef was merely a prep run for the Sussex. If one takes the line that a fit and prepared Zelzal would have beaten Taareef it doesn't take a leap in logic to think he could beat Churchill. To my mind that puts him in with a real chance today. Factor in also that this is the one the trainer has sent over; then add in Frankie Dettori rides, the 9/1 generally available looks over generous and odds on Ribchester looks poor value. Obviously too much rain will not favour Zelzal so hoping the ground won't have "soft" in it
Are we convinced soft ground will hamper Zelzal? I can see why he looks to be a horse that likes good ground with the turn of foot he possesses, but I'm loving his breeding and don't see anything in that to suggest he'll be inconvenienced by softer ground
I'm liking the fact that Zelzal has been targeted at this race and not yet been asked to run flat out this season. When Rouget does that he usually gets it right more often that not - i'd reckon that he has more chance of being at his peak in this race than Ribchester or Churchill, and that puts him bang there
I would not take the form lines between the Meld Stakes and the Prix Daniel Wildenstein at face value. The French race was run at the usual married-man’s gallop followed by a sprint in the straight and the Meld is a furlong further. Al Wukair – that is the best three year old in France according to Timeform, so why is Group 2 and dual Group 3 winner Taareef not here? Dettori has a retainer to ride for the owners.
Was only a minor race on his second start but I love those horse that go through gaps like that to get out of trouble, thats usually the sign of a proper horse. None of this Gustav Klimt nonsense. He was thrown into the French Guineas after this.
Afternoon all.Sticking with Galway my main wager is on William B in 4.25 4/1 for Gordy Elliot.Plate looks a minfield but I'll go with two Ew.Even though 5 year old hasn't won this since 1990 Slowmotion will love the soft going and races off a nice mark of 142.A Toi Phil loves these big hcapp chases and would be a welcome winner for Brian Cooper after being jocked off by the aeroplane mafia.
B&Q Chichester sold out of wheelbarrows yesterday as the bookies queued up to buy them to take away their winnings. Punters queued up for buses back to town poring over the Sussex Stakes form in search of the 50/1 shot to upset the big names. I expect Ribchester to beat Churchill but the race is a no bet as on form only the French raider is good enough to cause an upset. In the second I have a sneaking suspicion that Johnston’s Londinium is going to try and make all as Joe Fanning is aboard whilst De Sousa gets the leg up on Hochfeld, raised 8lb for winning 8L at Chester but turned over at odds on last time. I do not think that Wesley Ward’s Happy Like A Fool will want this track or this ground; and Heartache did nothing for the Ascot form in France last time. Havana Grey could be the one to capitalise if he likes the ground as he could try to make all; and he beat To Wafij at Sandown doing so. The first race today used to be the first race of the meeting and it is hard to escape from HAWKERLAND, down near the bottom of the weights with a useful claimer booked coming off an easy win over 2 miles last time. If the forecast deluge shows up on the Downs today (weather radar says it is raining now), the rest of the meeting will probably be a betting write off.
Look at it this way: why is the best three year old in France, Al Wukair, not here? He got beaten by a Group 2 horse last time so the French three year olds must be absolutely useless if he is the best.
Its happened again FFS. My main fancy and tracker horse HAWKERLAND tipped by QM and Alex Hammond...! Are you Alex Hammond QM, it would explain a lot! Cashing out!!!!!!
Nobody thinks he is the best though, thats clearly Brametot, he obviously got his timeform rating for running 1 3/4L 3rd to Churchill in the Guineas. He is the same ownership as Zelzal so that tells you what they think with who they are running in their race. So you must also think that Churchill is hopeless?
[QUOTE="QuarterMoonII, If the forecast deluge shows up on the Downs today (weather radar says it is raining now), the rest of the meeting will probably be a betting write off.[/QUOTE] it is starting to look like that!
Ribchester backers out of jail by the looks, saved by the rain, he would have been left for dead on fast ground but its going to a slow battle to the line which will play to his one paced strengths.
The ones with the highest rating are only the highest rating until they get beaten or something else runs to a higher rating. If Zelzal wins today he will probably be the highest rated. Unfortunately the ground has gone good to soft and getting softer so he might not perform as well as expected. We'll have to wait and see what the next surprise is.
Al Wukair couldn't even get by the pacemaker in the SJP stakes, Lancaster Bomber with his 1 win in 8 starts, and we're using him to give Zelzal a chance. Ribchesters form is along way ahead of the SJP form. My point about you always using Ravens Pass as an analogy, was not to compare the ability of that generation to these, just to point out that the best horse doesn't always win the Guineas.
I do not even look at what Richard Quinn’s wife is tipping, so I cannot help it if she curses the same ones as me. Sorry Placepot punters – I cannot even get them placed now...
I would have thought a shrewdie like you proclaimed yourself last week, would have checked the weather forecast. Even as a Ribchester backer, I'd still rather it stopped, as it could get silly out there if it gets any softer.
