Whether they race on the same side of the track surely will be decided by where they are drawn, which will be an unknown until a few days before the race. If they are both drawn on one side or the other it will be hard to keep them apart and there is no guarantee that others will not try to take them on early to light them up. They may not split into two groups, so the only thing positive for Harry Angel is that he is a bigger price right now as the filly clearly demonstrated how good she is by winning.
On his debut, at Dundalk (AW) the 1/3 shot beat the stable’s other runner, Lundy, which has only won an auction race since. Second race was a Listed race at The Curragh where 4 of the 9 runners came from Ballydoyle, the runner-up was Mister Trader, who has not won since. Third race was the Coventry Stakes, where he beat Mehmas by two and a quarter lengths. Mehmas subsequently won the July Stakes and the Richmond Stakes, proving that Caravaggio beat a good horse. Fourth race, at The Curragh in the 5-runner Phoenix Stakes, the 1/8 shot beat Courage Under Fire, win of a Naas maiden race since. O’Brien has won this race 15 of the last 20 years. Fifth race, a Group 3 race at Naas, the 8/15 chance beat Psychedelic Funk, previously third in the Coventry and has not won since. Sixth race was the Commonwealth Cup, where he beat Harry Angel three quarters of a length, that one previously winner of two Group 2s, proving that he is a good horse. I would say that there is a strong case to suggest that in four of his six races he has beaten trees, farming weak Irish races. His two visits to Royal Ascot are the only performances of any merit. He is very unlikely to race against poor horses in the July Cup but he will be facing his elders for the first time, a number of whom are reliable yardsticks against whom his merits can be truly judged.
All those older horses like Limato and The Tin Man, Twilight Son, they are decent, but look what Muhaarar done to them, dominated them, he showed they were not top level sprinters and theyve all been beating each other for a while now. The first 3 in the Commonwealth are a different level of animal, the winner is a proper Group 1 animal the runner up is well above average. The older horses dont have a hope in hell of giving Caravaggio 6 pounds, hes a steering job in the July Cup. Lady Aurelia didnt beat any Group 1 animals in the King Stand, but she is obviously very good. Would be brilliant to see her and Caravaggio take each other on at Newmarket then York, once at each others trip but probably wont happen.
I don't think there's any reason to believe Lady Aureila is any better than Harry's Angel. Yeah, she was visually impressive in the King's Stand but in terms of strength of their respective races the first three in the Commonwealth look stronger.
Clearly you think that Caravaggio should be 1/4 not 6/4 so you will have piled on to what you perceive to be a gift. Obviously those proper Group 1 animals are going to come home four or five lengths clear of those old plodders... Even though the official ratings before last week had Caravaggio on 119, Harry Angel on 118, The Tin Man on 117 and Blue Point on 116 – please feel free to reply that you put no store in ratings as it is your general stock answer when they do not concur with your opinion. I am looking forward to what looks a competitive race on paper despite the lopsided betting.
going by your allah written ratings, The Tin Man will need to run 8 pounds above his best to finish next to Caravaggio with the 6 pound weight difference and 2 pounds to find on official ratings seems quite accurate to me on this occasion The Tin Man will be lucky to place in the July Cup, if any of the older horses is a challenger in that its Limato at his best but hes not exactly on the upgrade is he, Caravaggio hasnt even peaked yet
Another way of looking at it is that The Tin Man finished the 6 furlongs in 1.47 secs faster time than Caravaggio, both carrying 9.3. WFA means Caravaggio will carry 6lb less. To me this means (theoretically) that, at level weights, Caravaggio would have been nearly 9 lengths behind the Tin Man. A pull of 6lbs should (theoretically) get him 1.5l closer. On the face of it Caravaggio will need to improve 7.5 l to get past The Tin Man. That doesn't sound right to me. Have I miscalculated? I know races don't work out like that but the fact is The Tin Man has proved he can cover the Ascot 6f in 1m 12.02s (fast by 0.38s). On the same course and similar going Caravaggio has proved he can do it in 1m 13.49s (slow by 1.09s).
Caravaggio had a finishing speed of 101.7% for the final 2f The Tin Man had a finishing speed of 97.6% for the final 2f. That would suggest the Diamond Jubilee was run at a much faster pace. (Figures from Simon Rowlands)
Yes but without meaning to be rude, so what? I remember when I was at school I could finish my races faster than anyone but when I ran in a county race they went so fast from the off they ran me off my legs and I was done long before the finish. At the end of the day it's' how long it takes to get from a to b (with a being the start and b being the end). The finishing speed is irrelevant unless there is a good reason why the fastest finisher got so far behind, and ran the first part in a slower time (eg was continually hampered/boxed in, forced wide etc. Until the horse can prove he can run the whole race in a faster time then it remains open to question as to whether he actually can.
For example, Librisa Breeze who finished 4th, 2¼l behind The Tin Man finished faster than anything in that race and had excuses for not being right up with the leaders (Steadied start, held up in midfield, not clear run over 2f out and over 1f out when bumped, soon switched left, ran on inside final furlong, finished well). You have to wonder whether, with a clearer run he might have won. However, it's not the first time he has come from behind and may benefit from being covered up until as late as possible. On a line through The Tin Man I think Brando might be a decent outsider in the July Cup
I do not believe in Allah or any other non-existent deities, but the official handicapper Phil Smith does make an objective assessment based on facts not opinions. Given that the first three in the Commonwealth Cup ran almost to the pound of those ratings, I think that gives them some credibility. Purely on official ratings, before Ascot the top rated sprinter in Britain was Limato on 122. You are perfectly entitled to ignore Weight For Age if you see fit, so Caravaggio has at least two lengths in hand of The Tin Man before the gates even open and a five year old could not possibly be improving like a Ballydoyle three year old. The obvious advantage that he probably has is that James Fanshawe’s gelding clearly likes Ascot as it is the scene of both his best victories so he may not be as good at HQ. I think they call that horses for courses.
