You argue this with great passion and experience. and I greatly admire that. The political classes should be listening but the track record in this skill isn't great. The only issue I have is with your political analysis. Forget Tory/Labour. The history of the New Labour lot showed the consensus consistently moving right in terms of "private good;public bad". The very fact that they were undoing the Thatcher regulations is evidence. The whole political club is in the dock. In France, where I am writing this, there is a feeling that the politicos have been kicked out and replaced by people less hung up on ideology and more interested in solving problems. I love the optimism I'm picking up, and hope so much it continues. Ironically, for someone who has been in Parliament for so long, Corbyn offers a new direction. I'm genuinely surprised, Imps, given the eloquence with which you express your understandable anger with politicians that you haven't joined the ranks of the converted and signed up for Momentum! Not making a cheap point, Imps. I have read everything you have posted on here with great interest and respect. I'm just surprised by your conclusions.
I agree about forget Tory/Labour. This is a cross party problem. The only difference in that house is the way they sell their mission to focus on the $$$. In terms of Macron. I'm not surprised you feel the "politicos" have been replaced by people less hung up on ideology. The reality I would suggest (time will tell) is that Macron is a fully paid up member of the politicos, just with a new sales pitch because the old one's were outdated. Like Blair when he came in. He is a globalist, a banker's friend and a friend of the EU mega Corp lot. The message will be different but the outcome will be the same. "they've worked out our old scam, we need a new way of selling it to carry on as normal." The public voted in their anti-austerity chap in Hollande. However the EU and the banks quickly pulled him in line that austerity was going to happen whether he liked it or not. And now France has brought in something different? A fully Pro EU, politico and banker's friend? HE was the EU go between that changed Hollande to conform. How is he suddenly different? He is the new model of what went before. A new suit for the same old politician. Davos will have been celebrating the day he won the election as they replaced someone who grudgingly conformed with someone who has ambition to rise above the menial task of national governance to world Dominance within the Davos clique. Macron is their man. He is not some radical. He just speaks the modern language. Manipulates in the modern way instead of the old. The end result will not be any different other than he will increase the globalist hold on France while people increasingly just become numbers. It's all about the $$$ On the latter part. Like I say our council has been Labour for most of the last 25 years. They are just the same as the Tory lot. Whoever is in power they complain about government cuts yet they find plenty of money to replace bath suites and kitchens that don't need replacing. They find plenty of money to continually refurbish City Hall inside and out. They constantly find money for all their vanity projects. If they had not wasted money replacing every council house roof, bathroom suite, kitchens etc rather than just the ones they needed to they might have had plenty of money available to build the council houses they say they can;t afford to build. They could have built it on all the land they sell to their property developer friends building yet more Uni accommodation (luxury of course) and more up market homes at a favourable price. Prime city centre land. Don't want the locals there. I vote Conservative because there are cuts to be made and because the Globalist problem is what needs scourging before anybody is able to tackle the parties independently. Do you think anything will change under Corbyn? He defends the globalist's model. He will be echoing Labour Councils like mine moaning about cuts while still spending non stop on anybody but the people of Lincoln. I will vote whatever way gets Brexit, even if that means voting for the ultra loony Brexit party (not yet formed.) After that I will consider other options because only once the globalist issue is tackled will we be able to start tackling the mainstream parties. Momentum aren't interested in anything other than blaming someone else. If a Labour council is vocal about cuts Momentum would push the argument without bothering to ask people or research. As long as they can blame the Tories for things. About time the whole of this country was woken up to the reality that whether it be Tories, Labour or Lib Dems they are only interested in managing to sell their vision of how to keep the globalist $$$ machine rolling along. Picking up on any causes they can gain favour with the public and score points on but at the end of the day they will all just do the same. Corbyn might be honourable. do you really trust the people behind him? People like McDonnell and all the backroom lot?
Change your name to arch-cynic, mate! But I do get the cause of your cynicism. Any optimism I have is borne out of desperation! Keep on keeping on, as someone once said. I disagree with most of what you write, but really enjoy it.
Take your stance of desperation!!! That echoes my warnings about UKIP before the referendum. Where do you think 13.7m votes appeared from for Theresa May after the campaign she just ran? Why do you think Tories smashed everybody in the council elections? Why do you think Corbyn's team were very careful to get the EU message right on platforms (TV & newspapers) leavers are more likely to be exposed to while making sure they didn;t mention it on platforms (social media / rallyes) that remainers were more likely to be exposed to? Because Brexit is the issue. Corbyn would have got a landslide if he had just stuck to his principals. The 12-23% rise (43% up to as much as 66% for 25 and 26 year olds) in the 18-26s would have been vastly outnumbered by the leavers that like Corbyn's manifesto but don't trust Labour on Brexit. Brexit will determine the next election too. People who voted leave (virtually all of them) do not see options of Brexit. They see a deal to be noegotiated but leaving is leaving. If the Tories do not deliver Brexit instead delivering some fudge that isn't Brexit then the Tories will crash in 2022 (or before if election is earlier.) Labour will run on a "it was them not us" manifesto. Take that desperation you feel and then take the FN and Macron rising in France. Translate that to the UK with a right wing party deserted for failing to deliver Brexit. Is that right wing vote going to go to the parties considered left if they are not prepared to question the outcome of Brexit? Nope. So you will have people here like in the US that are desperate for change with no option other than to go for the bad guys. Corbyn should have stuck to his guns on the EU. He would be waving from the door of No10 now with a handsome majority and having pulled one of the biggest voteshares in history. Instead he got high numbers but couldn't fight the Leave vote and couldn't draw enough of them to his party. I can see a new party forming towards the end of the Brexit deal if it looks like some EEA fudge and in this day and age we can see how fast you can go from nowhere to being the key player. Macron and Trump show that you can mobilise support very very quickly.
i see the main theme of that election as people stopping voting about Brexit, people saying Brexit isn't the main issue anymore. Cant see anything else from that result than people who voted on brexit issues before returning to standard left-wing, right-wing politics. + an increased youth vote due to realising they have to stand up for their own ideals after the brexit vote.
The youth vote is thought to not have been as big as thought immediately after the election when the NUS claimed it was 72%. YouGov's latest figures are: 18-19 yr olds = 57% 19-24 = 59% and 25-26 = 64% Brexit shouldn't be the main issue anymore because we voted on it last year but quite obviously 13.7m did not feel inspired by Theresa May and vote for their parents house and their inheritances to be taken from them. The pundits might go on about it not being what was voted on but that is only true in some locations (Richmond going back to Zack Goldsmith etc) There is no way May nor "fear of Corbyn" inspired such a large Tory vote just as I doubt Corbyn's manifesto did not inspire such an increase either. The numbers there do not add up. Brexit ended up playing a huge part. Just that Labour's split message meant they convinced the young voter they want a "so called" soft Brexit and the older voter that they are behind a "so called " Hard Brexit (the latter being Brexit and the former being a fudge to stay in all but name.)
Or maybe a large number of people were actually inspired by Jeremy Corbyn's message of hope, after years of grim austerity, stagnant wages, rising debt and rinsing of the poorest and most vulnerable?
I doubt it. Yes some people might believe it but I think it was just that the Tory argument with a useless figurehead just did not wash. The Tory message was "we have to have austerity because we have no money" yet then pushed on with HS2, Foreign Aid, Trident, Hinckly etc. It translated as we have no money...............for you, but on we go with all the big money projects Yay Crossrail is great because it's the most expensive thing ever. But we have no money for you guys. It is quite clear that Brexit played a huge part in the increase to 13.7m votes.
Not everyone is as cynical as you Imps. My view is that, once he was able to get a modicum of impartial coverage, Jeremy Corbyn was able to connect with significant numbers of people. After decades of right wing government, the idea of a fairer more equal Britain begins to make considerable appeal, especially to a generation locked out of the housing market, trapped on zero hours contracts and leaving education saddled with debt.
I think that the Tories are in trouble if there is another election this year. They won't be able to just campaign negatively attacking Labour, they will have to try and defend their record and policies.
There is no way that anyone within the Tory party will be pushing for another election in the near future. Equally even if there is no deal and they go into minority government the DUP will not want to risk their improvement to 10 seats. I do think Portillo was right last night though that May will be gone before conference in October, and that means Barwell (the former housing minister now May's aide) will go at the same time. No idea who will be the frontrunner because all the usual names will pop up. If they consider they are going to crash anyway they may put Gove in expecting to lose the next election anyway because he gets things done. However Rudd, Crabb, Davies etc will all be touted as usual. Rory Stewart is getting some support on the Tory forums. There is some talk on Tory forums on the line of "I wish Labour had just won it so that they could run out of money and we would be back in sooner." There is a fair amount of doom and gloom about at the moment in the Tory ranks
I agree with you on this. The Tories will do anything to keep the DUP onside and the DUP will know that the more they risk the peace process by driving Sinn Fein away from power-sharing, the more their own more moderate supporters might turn away from them. So neither bunch of turkeys will vote for an early Christmas. The more time that goes by, though, the bigger the crash will be.
I think you are looking from one side of the Brexit angle. If it goes well for leaver's "aspirations" AND they install a new leader that performs well wiping out all the batshit crazy take everyone's money that May came out with then they will get a bounce off the back of that. Yes they will lose remain support but they will get a huge amount of credit from leave voters. If the Brexit is softened, they are doomed. If Brexit doesn't happen they are doomed. If Brexit causes a mini slump or longer slump it won't affect the next election. But the Tories need to get around the table with all preconceptions of what the public mood wiped away, all the spads and media interpretations of what the public mood is wiped away and talk to normal people, not just leavers, not just Tories and from all levels of life/earning and stop coming out with these ridiculous policies. Gove would be a last resort because while I think he would be a very very good leader he is the fall guy, gets the reform jobs and is tainted by that. There is and has been far too much of a similarity in politics to the old managerial merry go round where the same names are touted. Equally a similarity of the media deciding a bright up and comer is the next big thing and touting them for the top. I think my favourite Kwasi is a long way off the top. not getting the traction within the party because modern governments like to have lots of repeaterbots like Farron, Rudd, Javid, Priti Patel etc. as their government team.
I think it is slowly beginning to dawn on people that the impact of Brexit won't be a simple matter of a mini slump. We are facing a self inflicted economic disaster of monumental proportions and it will take skillful and courageous leadership to minimise the extent of the undoubted damage that we are bringing on ourselves.
Did you know, Archers, that according to the French President and the German Finance Minister, we can overturn Article 50 and remain a full member of the EU at any time during the negotiations period. There is a petition out there alteady which suggests that we remain EU members if we do not get a soft Brexit. Europe just want us to come to our senses, so they'll be happy for us to get over our little strop. Btw, you say 'slowly dawning on people'. The implications hit me like a hammer within seconds of the result last year. I'm glad people are catching up.
Probably hit around 48% of those who voted last June in a similar way, and it may well be catching up with quite a few of the other 52% as the brutal reality of Brexit becomes clear. I suggest everyone signs the petition ASAP.
If nothing else, the fact that applications to be nurses here, from EU countries, has dropped by 96%, since the Brexit vote, should bring some to their senses. Add in the "desire" of so many brexiteers to reduce immigration to virtually nothing, and the loss of nurses bursaries, saving the NHS could be a waste of time if there is nobody to deliver the care. I really don't think some of these people realise just how dependent we have become on immigrant labour.
Conservative government is becoming toxic. The mitigating incidents and events have been extraordinary, but it is bringing into sharp focus where Tory priorities lie and where the people think they should lie.
I don't think that shoe has dropped just yet. I think that the whole populist wave was capitalized on by conservatives/far-right types, despite in many ways not really being a conservative issue. Limits on immigration, trade, etc. are fundamentally anti-free market. The far-right and/or racist "deplorable" types do exist and form the base of those movements, but those types have always been around. What changed was they were able to attract labour/liberals. These are people who believe in government, and want to help the poor. They just 1) want to help the poor in their own country first and 2) think the existing government was incompetent/corrupt and not helping anyone. So, they voted with their emotions and they bought what UKIP and Trump were selling them. But now it turns out that the money saved on EU is not going to NHS, or to fix domestic social programs that weren't working. It's going to line the pockets of the rich. They were shams from the start. So what would happen if a sort of legitimate Brexiter entered the picture? A person with somewhat liberal views on somethings, some political know-how, but also with a healthy strain of isolationism? Someone who could believably say that their priority is fixing the domestic problems and that withdrawing from the international community is necessary to do that? I think that person would be immensely popular, despite IMO being completely wrong about their policy choices. Trump is immensely unpopular in the US. But I think that Trump's policies are still popular. I think people still believe there is a way to have cheap universal healthcare without forcing people to pay, and that curbing immigration will solve all the country's ills. Trump (and the Brexit leaders in the UK) promised the voters the world, and like suckers they went for it. But I'm far from convinced they have learned from this. Rather, they're just blaming government again, like they always have done. That person could be someone like Bernie Sanders in the US, who is far left. But it could just as easily be someone from the far-right, who is just much slicker and not as incompetent and crazy as Trump.
