Gonzo's Erection Thread

May should have gone on unchallenged till the end of the terms of conservative party. Her position is no longer tenable.

 

The reality is the following no?

1. tory majority was 12... thats TWELVE in 2015 and they managed to do brexit damage to us all.

2. Current seats are: (1 seat to go)

tories 318
labour 261
SNP 35
Libs 12
Dup 10
sin fein 7
plaid 4
green 1

3. whats needed for a majority:

326 = 650/2 +1... HOWEVER... 7 sinn fien cannot swaer oath so will take thier votes off the park 643/2+1 = 322 for 1 seat majority

the current house speake ris a tory. The tories could elect a labour guy to speaker to increase thier numbers to 319

4. possible combos

Tory minority with DUP support = 318+10 = 328 = majority of 6.

Tories could buy off Plaid to just abstain in votes but giving wales mony. If they do that thats another 4 votes off the park so majority needed is 320... hmmmm...

how can corbyn get in power?

Labour 261 + lbs 12 + snp 35 + green 1 = 309... they are NOWHERE NEAR getting a majority and all tories need do is turn up

If tories simply get DUP and plaid to walk off the park and not vote thats 650-10-7-4 = 629 629/2 = call it 315... so they would have majority of 3. (rememer these small parties never actually want power they want to sit in opposition and accuse those in power to keep their support bases)

All this suggest to me that while its a kicking... its is in the end a small loss for tories and an ideal position for DUP to influence NI politics hugely but getting power. I would predict that the DUP would be quite happy for 5 years in power here....

If the tories do the right deals in wales and NI... never mind some deal in scotland which should not occur... well a couple bil extra in the devolved parliments as a slush fund and away you go.

What would plaid need to just abstain?
What would DUP demand to actually vote with tories?

 

If she really cared about the UK's negotiating position and the best interests of the country she would resign, not beg the queen to keep her in power

 

I can see another election, maybe early next year or late this year.

 

Has to be. It can limp along for a while to refund the party coffers but in the end.... it cant last 2 years.

The tories need a good excuse to have another though.... hard to see how... need a labour implosion.

 

Biggest result is a demolition of May's mandate for a hard Brexit and her other disgusting policies

"The City" has also clearly spoken that she's not qualified

Sinn Fein are morons, take the oath under protest or don't participate

 

Her failure to win the landslide she was expecting has cause uncertainties in the financial market. She have to go.

 

the 2 obvious reasons/excuse are
A) new party leader needs a mandate
B) they won't get the Brexit vote through

 

in what way

 

Massively voting labour

 

ah i see
i assumed you were referring to the financial sector with "the city" reference

 

A requires someone standing up and taking her on... i can see people standing back and letting her mess up brexit to ensure they win through.. If she refuses to stand down then someone has to risk future political power to do it. I could see a johnson being mad enough to try then getting shafted again. when would they do this?

B is a 2 year job.. theres no vote to be had til negotiations happen

Its going to be interesting to see if a tory has the balls to call her out immediately.

 

Sinn Fein talked about taking their seats for the Brexit vote and could well actually turn up for the final vote.

The DUP are disparate and the idea that they'll back the Tories plans when push comes to shove is more than debatable.

However the salient point is that May called this election to hammer home her advantage and effectively silence the hard Brexit opponents within her own party, that's now gone...

This will be a piss weak Govt and it'll effectively be inert in terms of any major change. A great day for this country and a poke in the eye with a sharp stick for the hapless May, who treated the electorate with complete disdain.

**** the Tories

 

not really.

fleeing to stocks is not standard. currency dip was mostly due to thought of corbyn/snp coalition.

I think this will all stabilise quickly.

 

they would need to swear alliegence to the queen to do that.

That is 2 years away

DUP are DUP. yes they are all sorts but the thing is they are more than anything parochial. (prefect insult in many ways) if NI wants lots of stuff and a real hard line secretary of state they will do a deal. and why not? another 2 bil on the budget

you are certianly right.. any way you cut it labour have a much stronger position to oppose from and you cannot just laugh at corbyn form across the floor any more. I agree.. it will purely be a bought off 2 year max thing that the tories hope they can swing something new in that time. their position is extremely weak despite being the only game in town.

Oh and i forgot to say... the libs COULD do with them but my god they'd need to be suicidal.

Its a good day, not a great day. Its not great for near term and it still leaves tories in and a brexit on the cards....

 

if the tories think they will not be able to force thru the brexit vote it is highly likely they will do either a) or b) or quite probably both.

 

Mayhem forms coalition of chaos with DUP

 

One thing Tobes ain't is Eddie Hitler.

 

The Conservatives need a new leader. It won't be Johnson because he is negotiating a TV deal for a 10 part series on "Whiskies of the World." Allegedly!!! If I was a serious Conservative I would want Sarkozy to hammer the Brexit nonsense out of the Tory heads and to take the Conservatives back into the mainstream of European politics. That is what the Conservative Party needs, that is what the country needs. In reality it is likely to be Ruth Davidson when she has found a safe seat.

PS: Who would have thought the DUP would be wagging the body of the dog?

 

I wasn't going to bother voting a month ago. My daughter has absolutely badgered me, even through my recent ops and health issues, to get back on my feet to vote. Her and my neice, who's a Lancaster doing maths just never stopped, certainly on social media and SU meetings, getting their contemporaries to register and vote. She even nagged her boyfriend to register and go to the polls even to draw a cock on the ballot paper - when he got there he found it easier just to vote Labour, when he thought of his access and plumbing courses, his mum losing her disability PIP, and so forth.

I am really humbled. Don't get me wrong, we haven't won this vote, and I hope the young don't despair. But here's to 16 year olds voting and a new future - they had Brexit 'stole' from them, but I pray this is no false dawn and our youth have learned their strength.

And Curtice - **** me, that feller knows his stuff.