Unlikely as Gladness says. Enable is already inbred 2 x 3 to Sadler's Wells. With Frankel she would be inbred 2 X 3 to Galileo and 3 X 4 X 4 to SW. They might try it once. More likely Dansili or Dubawi or even Golden Horn I'd think.
It is perfectly true that if it had been a twelve furlong handicap, we would all be doubting the value of the form. The Chester Vase runner-up was 40/1 and the Chester Vase winner was 12/1, so clearly punters did not fancy the Chester Vase form as much as the Dee Stakes form (Cliffs Of Moher 5/1), but in an open year that does not make Wings Of Eagles “a rag”. If Cliffs Of Moher had prevailed, would you still be of the same view? We may find out subsequently that this year’s three year olds are moderate, as were most of last year’s, but it would probably be wisest to wait until the three year olds start meeting their elders before reaching any absolute conclusion.
Wings of Eagles win was very reminiscent of his old pop's Derby win, Pour Moi. Sadly old Paddy boy didn't fancy a standing salute before the line like that ones jockey!
The Timeform stopwatch analysis makes very interesting reading, especially for fans of Oaks winner Enable, who recorded the best Timeform Oaks timefigure in the last decade. Indeed, had she run in the Derby with the fillies’ allowance, she could have gone close to winning it as she covered the last furlong as quick as the Derby winner. The sectionals suggest that the 2017 Derby was on a par with previous runnings, the winner Wings Of Eagles just above par in terms of finishing speed along with fifth home Benbatl. The first three covered the last furlong in blistering time, which obviously highlights the performance of Cracksman as he was up with the pace the whole race. Those of us that thought that those horses that were near the front simply folded because of the early pace were wrong. It was simply a case of those finishing from the rear were quicker. I am not entirely convinced that the original pacesetter Douglas Macarthur stayed but when he ran the first five furlongs (uphill) 1.7 seconds faster than the par for the Derby, he really would have needed to be a wonder horse to have sustained that run downhill all the way to the line. The stopwatch tells us that Coronation Cup winner Highland Reel owes his victory to the tactical ride of Ryan Moore; however, in reality horses do not race against the clock, they race against each other, so the smartest jockey riding the smartest race is what punters rely on. Simon Rowlands’ closing comments do not read well for those that think Wings Of Eagles will not win again... although comparing the 2017 winner with his sire – who never ran again – is completely pointless.
"Wings of Eagles may not prove another Troy, but he may well make more of a subsequent racecourse impact than did his sire, Pour Moi, who stormed through from behind to win the 2011 Derby by a head with a finishing speed of 114.0%: he did not race again." Hardly a comparison QM but I do agree it was pointless any way. The finishing speed invariably depends on how fast they went for the rest of the race. So a tactical, slowly run race will almost certainly result in faster finishing speeds. The finishing speed needs to be looked at in the context of the overall time which, at the end of the day, is what determines who wins. To be honest I haven't yet got my head round these sectionals, in particular the optimum efficiency v the horse's efficiency (as shown in the ATR Sectional tools, also provided by Simon Rowlands). Some horses may have different optimum efficiencies than others surely? Eg If one horse performs best with a strong end to end gallop and another horse performs best held up and challenging late they will look very different in the efficiency graphs but does that tell us anything? Not sure of the use of that particular tool.
theres a reason why Simon Rowlands does reviews and not previews same as Jamie Lynch, waffling after the event experts
“massive contradiction”? There is nothing like a huge dose of exaggeration when trying to make a point. Cracksman was sixth around Tattenham Corner and eventually finished third – the only one of the first half dozen at that point to improve his placing. The first two around Tattenham Corner finished seventh and seventeenth. Third at the bend Venice Beach retreated to twelfth, Best Solution went from fourth back to eighth and Permian lost five places from fifth. Of the first five home, none were closer than twelfth when they turned into the straight except Cracksman, leading to the visual impression that they stopped when the stopwatch says that actually those behind just finished quicker. I did confess to being wrong about thinking that the pace slowed but I expect that the journalists (and forumites) that shared my view may not be so quick.
Given that Simon Rowlands was making an analysis of the race based on the times, he would have to have been Doctor Who to know the race sectional times before the race was run: that it is why it is called Sectional Timing Debrief. Analysing how the race was run from the perspective of the stopwatch might provide readers with evidence to support their betting intentions before some of the big races in the not-too-distant future, such as the King Edward VII Stakes, Eclipse Stakes and the Irish Derby. But why would anybody want to take form into account when they could simply pick one by sticking a pin in the racecard? Obviously, if he had reported that the race failed miserably in comparison to recent history, you would have been the first on here to crow about how useless the 40/1 winner was and that it definitely would not win another race...
what you are saying doesnt make any sense to me though, of course those behind finished quicker, Douglas Macarthur practically stopped to a walk in the last half furlong, The Anvil 2nd turning in lost 16 places between the 3 and the 1 and was beaten 23L, Venice Beach from 3rd was going backwards from 3 out, Best Solution from 4th was out on his feet last furlong as well Cracksman was the only horse anywhere close to the pace who didnt run out of gas long before the finish, there is simply no other way to describe it than a pace collapse, the fact that the horses from behind finished faster goes without saying
when did I ever say the winner was useless? and when did I say it definitely would not win another race? I made it 2/1 to win again and said it was clearly a decent horse with a top class pedigree i dont give one **** about what Simon Rowlands says, I have not even read what he said about the race and if I want to know sectionals for a race I do them myself, rather than trust someone elses eyes
Since 2003, Aidan O'Brien has trained 126 Group 1 winners aged three or older and only four of those were returned at 12/1 or bigger; that group comprised Frozen Fire, Homecoming Queen, Was and Qualify and none of them won a race of any sort afterwards.
Eyeing up a fairly decent investment on Waldgeist in the Irish Derby. Enough rain about over the next few days to ensure there will be some soft in the going come Saturday - that will be suiting Waldgeist more than the others. O'Briens crop all seem to be beating each other and I'd be pretty confident Wings of Eagles isn't a dual Derby winner in the making. Capri more of a danger if running - finished well ahead of WOE on soft over in France
Agree, taking 7/2. Actually think epsom form stronger than french but Walgeist crying out for the trip.
I've taken the plunge on Waldgeist also. The form is a bit of a mess (Benbatl further behind WOE than Orderofthegarter was behind Waldgeist, Benbatl then beat Orderofthegarter, WOE obviously beat Benbatl), but Waldgeist did beat WOE on soft in a Group 1 in France and is guaranteed to appreciate the trip. I think that's the big plus, and i'm just not having that WOE is top class - it seems to me that the horses he stayed on past in the Derby are all better over 10f. Add in that Fabre seems bullish, the weather forecast, Waldgeist has to be the value
My mind is wreaked from trying to sort out the top three in the betting. The formbook looks useless. I don't like Cracksman, I'm not sure the race will be run to suit Wings of Eagles and I'm not sure where the French form is at. I'll probably take an each way swing at Venice Beach or/and Douglas MacArthur in the hope it could be a slowly run affair.
