Off Topic Politics Thread

I wasn't point scoring, as I don't have a political allegiance to point score for.

 

Yet funnily enough FPTP works perfectly in Northern Ireland!! If PR was introduced for the Parliamentary elections to Westminster it would deprive us of the excellent Independent MP, Lady Hermon as the seats gained would be in proportion to the votes cast.

 

I know. I'm saying you're a perfect example of someone who has some interest in politics, who wants to make a decision who to vote for and the petty nature of the interviews, media coverage and general silly point-scoring appears to be putting you off. You may or may not vote, many others who feel the same way as you won't bother and the tone of the coverage and discussions is a big part of the reason why they won't.

 

FLT, my old mate. Ask me if I was cringing at JC's gaff on Woman's Hour and I'll say a firm "yes". I wholly agree with your assertion about partiality, and loath the personality driven politics. BUT for the first time in decades there is a genuine difference in the direction of travel being offered. I do not think that Corbyn's Britain will flow with milk and honey, but it will be a better place to live for the people I meet week in, week out. For me? Very little difference. For my grandchildren it is vital that we take a turn to the left before we hit the wall.

I voted for Blair with a heavy heart. He was a new Tory, slightly better than the old one. Now for the first time since Thatcher, someone has the balls to offer an alternative. We see the result of the Thatcher revolution. Let's have a new revolution and create a society that actually cares. Only Labour offers that. So I have voted for my excellent Labour MP with a spring in my step. I fully expect to see a Tory majority, but maybe this is the beginning of the erosion of the hard-faced individualism that has become the consensus post 79. Turning the ship around is going to take some doing. But at least let's start.

 

I am completely impartial on the individuals (unless they are real nutJobs) and my post was not about if he is right or not to lead the country. I always (usually) keep my political views to myself.

I purely raised the question of why some people get bashed for a mistake (as I said the other day before this) and for others it's excusable, understandable.

 

Ah ok. I thought you suggested I was petty point scoring; apologies.

I will vote. It is important to vote. I need to remember to allow my vote by proxy before midnight tonight.

 

Corbyn set to announce he will appear in the leaders' debate on BBC tonight. Game on.

 

Yet Theresa May will bottle it because she knows she will get exposed if she debates. She has the choice between looking cowardly or weak; seems she has chosen to be painted as a coward.

 

Yep, damned either way.

She does it - she makes ANOTHER u-turn, marches to Corbyn's beat

She doesn't do it - they all get stuck into her for being weak and Corbyn has a real chance to paint himself in a good light... again

 

There is one thing that the Great British public can't stand and that's a.....

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....

 

Took long enough to get rid of Cameron. They aren't going to let him back in. Made me chuckle earlier the suggestion of Blair swapping sides. There is no way that the Tories will let another Blairite take over the party. The Blairite Cameron was a one off.

 

May is going to be so bad

 

A one off who won them two elections. Against arguably far stronger opposition than Theresa is facing.

 

Because most right centre or right wing people prefer to keep their opinions to themselves rather than have an argument over their voting intention. Whereas most left centre or left wing people don't suffer the same response.

Hence why violent "left wing" groups get a free pass and virtually no reporting whereas non violent right wing groups like EDL will be headline toppers despite no violence on their side and all the arrests being from the "anti" lot.

When it is fine to shout Tory scum yet the left wing are immune from criticism then you will not get the same numbers airing their views.

The whole of the internet shows this. You would think 90% of voters were left wing if you gauged opinion on the internet. Or you would get the impression that right wing people don't use the internet. The reality is that most right wing people on the internet just can't be bothered having the same old argument and getting the same aggressive response whereas the left wing posters post away because they don't receive the same response because of the above.

Polling day will tell. YouGov will have overestimated the left wing support again and they will never get to grips with the "shy" right wing vote because there are more and more "shy" voters as the days and months progress due to the increasing vitriol from the left.

YouGov had Ed Milliband closing the gap and towards polling day Milliband was neck and neck with Cameron with YouGov still thinking it was going to be a coalition by a margin with The Labour not being too far behind Cameron in terms of seats. The reality of course was a difference of 99 seats.

This is YouGov's opinion 6th May 2015 in the Guardian:
Now, with only a few days remaining, Ed Miliband and David Cameron are still squaring up against one another and although a knockout blow now looks virtually impossible, there are still points to be won and the result remains very uncertain.

Miliband has adopted an aggressive, confrontational stance by ruling out any kind of coalition or deal or agreement or whatever with the SNP. This will, one imagines, result in him being left well short of a majority and having to go all Michael Corleone – offering the SNP nothing, but hoping they blink first and fall in line as their opposition to the alternative is too great.

However, David Cameron may keep fighting and refuse to give in. Crucially, he will need to, as I expect, win slightly more votes and a few more seats than Labour, but also convince the remaining Lib Dems to enter into a formal coalition agreement. No easy task, but by no means impossible.

If he succeeds, we could be left with both Con/LibDem and Lab/SNP blocs close in terms of seats although still short of the 326 (or even 323) needed for a majority, but with the Conservatives able to claim a points victory by virtue of being the single party having more votes and seats.


All the pollsters went for a neck and neck hung parliament or Ed Milliband for PM. NONE predicted Cameron except "Populus" who were working 3 days a week for the Conservatives at the time.


Michelle Harrison, global head of public affairs at TNS: ‘Stalemate; Miliband has the numbers, but public opinion will decide’


Survation's opinion from their polling in May 2015, how far out is this one? And that is with Labour ahead in the polls not just neck and neck!!!:
Our new ballot paper-prompted voting question, which we believe will produce results closer to the actual results tomorrow, currently shows:

CON 31.0% LAB 32.3% LD 10.1% UKIP 15.2% GRE 5.4% SNP 3.9% Others 1.8%.

This would indicate a seat picture of:

CON 270-280 LAB 270-275 SNP 45 LD 30 UKIP 6 GRE 1 RES 1.

Ed Miliband would then, on this basis be our most likely next prime minister, and LAB could be closer to the Conservatives in both votes and seats than is the current expectation – lending some “legitimacy” to the formation of a Labour minority government.


These pollsters will never be able to work out the shy vote because they don't understand or realise how much vitriol there is that is pushing people to be "shy." That vitriol is increasing and thus the "shy" vote will increase with it.

 

100% true this. There is of labelling and things like tory scum don't help. The other thing is, a large element of tory supporters will be voting with their best interest at heart and really does anyone want to be sharing that they are selfish to the world in full view. Maybe on anonymous board or with their close friends and family but definitely not on social media.

Even poor imps here has taken flack over remain/brexit, tory v labour and i would like to think most here are not as militant or think everything is you or us

 

I am quite happy with the situation. I don't want May getting a landslide and cementing herself "Thatcherlike" for eons. She is no Thatcher and she is far too easily swayed from what she supposedly believes.

Small majority same or increased much better for Brexiters so that her party will be at her to push on rather than her keep pandering to the Pro EU camp.

 

I'm sorry, but when these pollsters conduct their surveys I presume it's not in front of a large crowd of left wing militants shouting "Tory scum". Surely it is just between the asker and the replier in confidence isn't it?

 

He should have easily got a majority in 2010 but went all Blairite and squandered the easy open goal against Brown. The majority in 2015 was small but against Milliband who was blatantly trying to pretend he wasn't Blairite.

May's stance on Brexit I like. Once Brexit is done I would like to see someone new come through and take her place. Like I said my favourite Tory at the moment other than Jacob Rees-Mogg is Kwasi Kwarteng. There is a reason I think why he hasn't been given a top job. He sails through interviews and interrogations and the powers that be in politicial parties prefer to surround the top team with "on message" policy repeaters and not give a leg up to those that might challenge them.

 

no ****ing idea where the pollsters come from. Is it those pop ups when you are reading online articles or is it face to face? If face to face i can imagine you may not want to be truthful.

I've never been asked!

 

I think the reality is that many people are simply ashamed to admit that they intend to vote for the "nasty party" - Theresa May's term.

But Imps was never going to admit that