I'd like to see more projections on likely outcome if we leave without a deal. That is our stripped down, fall back position. I'd like to have the best possible gauge on how it would affect the UK, but also how it would affect the EU.
It seems increasingly clear that if no deal is struck, the EU have a major problem with funding since we have been a big (second largest) net contributor. Countries like the Netherlands are already saying they will not pay a penny more as a result of Brexit. So if we walk away without a deal, the EU will have to dramatically cut funding to the net recipients in the EU which will cause huge ructions in the organisation.
Since we are here, before negotiations, with a hysterical Juncker claiming it's likely no deal can be arrived at, let's see a worst case scenario for both sides. I suspect a "no deal" outcome is almost inconceivable for either. Shove Juncker and his Nazi aid to one side, and get Barnier and Davis to start finding common ground
Here are my uninformed guesses. ( the Nazi reference is beneath you, but well done, a step away from Godwin),
Won't the EU have a funding gap in any case when we leave, even with a deal, assuming that we won't be contributing £ going forward, unless we agree to a 'pay to play' trade deal, which seems unlikely with the current rhetoric? Making a deal with us doesn't make the problem go away for the EU, as far as I can see, and strengthens their collective desire to get the maximum financial settlement from us to soften the blow.
If we leave without a deal trade with EU countries will continue, perhaps at different levels and with more bureaucracy and possibly with some sectors suffering more than others on both sides of the channel. Some, probably not many, businesses will relocate out of the UK. But the £ (or possibly € I forget) 290bn the EU exports to us won't disappear neither will the £/€240bn we export to them - may be reduced a bit. These are hard wired trade flows. I would guess that the £ (rallying!) will settle at a permanently lower level (which may be justified) which will leave exports competitive even with tariffs (I think regulation is the real burden here WTO tariffs are generallly quite low, already offset by the fall in £) but will hike import costs. So some inflation and possibly lower imports. We will find it takes a long time to negotiate trade deals with other countries. Collaborative (pan EU) research initiatives with central funding will involve fewer and fewer British components. The UK will try to make itself very attractive to inward investment with ever lower corporate tax rates.
I suspect that many sectors (health, finance, agriculture) will persuade the government that they need access to EU and non EU labour, and I will speculate that in policy terms we may have something that looks tough but isn't in practice, and will be poorly implemented anyway, just like the current non EU migrants policy. I would like to think that we will do the right thing by EU migrants already here. But immigration will fall and there will be some EU citizens already here who will leave because the fall in the £ makes the UK a less atttractive place to migrate to. Some UK pensioners residing overseas (not just in the EU) will return to the UK because the value of their pensions has fallen - unless U.K. inflation puts them off. If the economy is chugging along there will be more job opportunities for Brits, but those exist already. Failings in the U.K. education system to equip people with relevant skills will be cruelly exposed. Long term issue around funding pensions with an aging population which we have anyway, will be exacerbated as we will lose young net contributors to the finances. Those communities currently complaining of being 'swamped' by immigrants won't feel any different in the short term, and will be unhappy about it. The UK will give up on its pretence of taking refugees (I think it's safe to assume a Tory government until at least 2022). There may be some tension about where the border checks with France take place.
By 'no deal' I assume you include no agreement on the Ireland/N Ireland border. I don't know enough about the technicalities of this, but suspect that the Irish and British governments will sort something and the Irish will insist that the EU accepts it. If the Northern Irish economy suffers the offer of joining with the Republic and re-entering the EU becomes more atttractive and there may be a referendum in a few years, I can't second guess the outcome. Likewise with Scotland, I don't think they will have a referendum in the short term, especially if the Tories pick up a few seats in Scotland in the election, but again in a few years there may be one and if the economy isn't great the 'nothing to lose' momentum could swing it for independence. Gibraltar will have some uncomfortable times with heavy border controls but that will probably settle down. They voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, perhaps (again in a few years) they will take up the standing offer of joint citizenship and shared sovereignty with Spain, which gets them back in the EU with British passports.
The majority of Brexit voters will come to realise that 'taking back control' has made very little difference to their real lives. Laws made in Westminster will feel just like laws made in Brussels. We have had 10 years of austerity and stagnant living standards, we will have another 10 years, which won't feel any different to now - just a bit **** - because government finances will be under huge pressure and the EU cash dividend will feel like a drop in the ocean. Unless you are chronically ill or dependent on benefits, in which case it will feel very **** indeed.
All uneducated speculations, and doubtless will be criticised as doom and gloom (there are far worse scenarios that could be painted involving recession etc) I have genuinely tried to be honest within the restricted bounds of my understanding. And all predictated on the EU remaining as an entity, even if not a thriving one, which I think it will. It will be much worse for everyone if it doesn't. All may be irrelevant anyway if Trump, Kim and Putin decide to blow everything up.
Sorry for the long post. I don't really care if nobody reads it, it's been good to think things through. Better do some work now.
